stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Don't know if it's just slower or drier at this point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 The longwave trough is slightly more positively tilted, may affect moisture transport down the line here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, stormtracker said: Don't know if it's just slower or drier at this point Looks a bit slower toggling back and forth on WxBell. But like an hour or two. If you think it's drier you are probably also right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 18z vs 12z. same time 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Coming in slower and drier, do not like the 18z trend at all 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, stormtracker said: Don't know if it's just slower or drier at this point I think both? Also has less 850mb winds from the south so far so it'll be colder too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Seems drier overall to me...I could be wrong tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Getting goods from 9 to 12z still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: Coming in slower and drier, do not like the 18z trend at all Looks great to me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Southern crew likes. Northern crew not going to be happy thus far. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 11 minutes ago, CAPE said: Mount Holly slightly bullish for here for now- 4-8" Sat night, then snow/sleet Fr rain on Sunday, snow could be heavy at times. Kinda hedging their bets.. seems like they don't really see enough of a consensus among the guidance. Haven't read their AFD yet. First things first- Getting a couple bourbons in me lol. Yeah, they aren't sure what the fuck to go with for now, so a little bit of everything with ambiguous wording. Understandable given the disparity at this juncture. Overrunning precipitation develops on a developing warm front out ahead of the surface low Saturday night. With temperatures mainly in the teens, any precipitation that develops will be snow and snow accumulations will occur quickly. With snow ratios from 15-20:1, can expect a quick 1 to 3 inches over northern zones, 3 to 6 inches from around Philadelphia, through southern New Jersey, and into northern Delmarva, and 5 to 7 inches across southern Delmarva. What will need to be watched is if snow ratios lower late at night across southern Delmarva as warmer air lifts to the north. From there, snow continues to ramp up throughout the day Sunday. 12Z models have continued to trend to the north, and as a result, more in the way of warmer air will spread into the region aloft. The 12Z/22 ECMWF looks to be centered over the Delmarva Peninsula by Sunday evening, while the 12Z/22 GFS has the center of the low some 50-100 miles southeast of the ECMWF. The 12Z NAM now goes out until 00Z Monday and splits the difference between the ECMWF and GFS. The 12Z/22 CMC is even a bit more to the northeast than the ECMWF. Ultimately, this results in a warmer solution, and can expect a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain well into southeast Pennsylvania, mainly along the I-95 corridor, and northern New Jersey, while rain and snow will develop along the New Jersey coast and southern Delaware. For the southern Poconos and far northwest New Jersey, precipitation remains all snow. Cannot rule out a period of plain rain for portions of the southeast New Jersey coast and southern Delaware coast. This wintry mix continues through Sunday evening before changing back to all snow late Sunday night. Snow then continues into Monday morning before ending. Overall, snow accumulations look to be on the order of 12 to 15 inches for the majority of the area, with slightly less in southern Delmarva. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 It's still ideal for us tho...still snow at 15z 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: GFS is definitely flatter a tad further south with the precip shield so far can it be that wrong 48 hours out? If its useless at 48...why is it still running? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Sleet line still in NC at 60 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Still heavy snow at 18z...thermals creeping up tho. GFS still kinda holding on to the snow the longest 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Seems drier overall to me...I could be wrong tho Its trying its best to miss the SW phase. I assume this means drier first part but still amped second part. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: It's still ideal for us tho...still snow at 15z Precip looks to end up delayed not denied - wetter at 72 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 WB 18Z RDPS. I will take this in a heartbeat. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Second slug looks to be coming up? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 It's basically holding on to the idea of more snow (vs other models) and a long duration thang 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Precip looks to end up delayed not denied - wetter at 72 The NW crew gets smoked. Gfs I’ll give you a dollar to be right. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 WB 18Z RDPS. I will take this in a heartbeat.What’s the RDPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, stormtracker said: Still heavy snow at 18z...thermals creeping up tho. GFS still kinda holding on to the snow the longest It has the best overall outcome for the majority of the region. Ukmet kinda supports it. Not the best combo lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, stormtracker said: It's basically holding on to the idea of more snow and a long duration thang DC flips by 78 but we'd still be happy. 8" non-Kuchera. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, jayyy said: What’s the RDPS . RGEM--small version of the CMC basically 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 sleet line doesn't really move from here the rest of the run 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Still going strong at 6z....man 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z RDPS. I will take this in a heartbeat. wow our standards have tanked! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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