January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[stormtracker]

Don't know if it's just slower or drier at this point

[LP08]

The longwave trough is slightly more positively tilted, may affect moisture transport down the line here.

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Don't know if it's just slower or drier at this point

Looks a bit slower toggling back and forth on WxBell. But like an hour or two. If you think it's drier you are probably also right

[stormtracker]

18z vs 12z. same time

[TSSN+]

Coming in slower and drier, do not like the 18z trend at all

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Don't know if it's just slower or drier at this point

I think both? Also has less 850mb winds from the south so far so it'll be colder too 

[stormtracker]

Seems drier overall to me...I could be wrong tho

[stormtracker]

Getting goods from 9 to 12z still

[TSG]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Coming in slower and drier, do not like the 18z trend at all

Looks great to me

[Buddy1987]

Southern crew likes. Northern crew not going to be happy thus far.

[stormtracker]

[CAPE]

 

11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Mount Holly slightly bullish for here for now- 4-8" Sat night, then snow/sleet Fr rain on Sunday, snow could be heavy at times. Kinda hedging their bets.. seems like they don't really see enough of a consensus among the guidance. Haven't read their AFD yet. First things first- Getting a couple bourbons in me lol.

Yeah, they aren't sure what the fuck to go with for now, so a little bit of everything with ambiguous wording. Understandable given the disparity at this juncture. 

Overrunning precipitation develops on a developing warm front
out ahead of the surface low Saturday night. With temperatures
mainly in the teens, any precipitation that develops will be
snow and snow accumulations will occur quickly. With snow ratios
from 15-20:1, can expect a quick 1 to 3 inches over northern
zones, 3 to 6 inches from around Philadelphia, through southern
New Jersey, and into northern Delmarva, and 5 to 7 inches across
southern Delmarva. What will need to be watched is if snow
ratios lower late at night across southern Delmarva as warmer
air lifts to the north.

From there, snow continues to ramp up throughout the day
Sunday. 12Z models have continued to trend to the north, and as
a result, more in the way of warmer air will spread into the
region aloft. The 12Z/22 ECMWF looks to be centered over the
Delmarva Peninsula by Sunday evening, while the 12Z/22 GFS has
the center of the low some 50-100 miles southeast of the ECMWF.
The 12Z NAM now goes out until 00Z Monday and splits the
difference between the ECMWF and GFS. The 12Z/22 CMC is even a
bit more to the northeast than the ECMWF. Ultimately, this
results in a warmer solution, and can expect a wintry mix of
sleet and freezing rain well into southeast Pennsylvania, mainly
along the I-95 corridor, and northern New Jersey, while rain
and snow will develop along the New Jersey coast and southern
Delaware. For the southern Poconos and far northwest New Jersey,
precipitation remains all snow. Cannot rule out a period of
plain rain for portions of the southeast New Jersey coast and
southern Delaware coast.

This wintry mix continues through Sunday evening before
changing back to all snow late Sunday night. Snow then continues
into Monday morning before ending.

Overall, snow accumulations look to be on the order of 12 to 15
inches for the majority of the area, with slightly less in
southern Delmarva. 

[stormtracker]

It's still ideal for us tho...still snow at 15z

[Ji]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

GFS is definitely flatter a tad further south with the precip shield so far

can it be that wrong 48 hours out? If its useless at 48...why is it still running?

[LP08]

Sleet line still in NC at 60

[stormtracker]

Still heavy snow at 18z...thermals creeping up tho.   GFS still kinda holding on to the snow the longest

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Seems drier overall to me...I could be wrong tho

Its trying its best to miss the SW phase. I assume this means drier first part but still amped second part. 

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

It's still ideal for us tho...still snow at 15z

Precip looks to end up delayed not denied - wetter at 72

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z RDPS.  I will take this in a heartbeat.

[stormtracker]

Second slug looks to be coming up?

[stormtracker]

It's basically holding on to the idea of more snow (vs other models) and a long duration thang

[TSSN+]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Precip looks to end up delayed not denied - wetter at 72

The NW crew gets smoked. Gfs I’ll give you a dollar to be right. 

[jayyy]

WB 18Z RDPS.  I will take this in a heartbeat.

What’s the RDPS

[CAPE]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Still heavy snow at 18z...thermals creeping up tho.   GFS still kinda holding on to the snow the longest

It has the best overall outcome for the majority of the region. Ukmet kinda supports it. Not the best combo lol

[stormtracker]

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, stormtracker said:

It's basically holding on to the idea of more snow and a long duration thang

DC flips by 78 but we'd still be happy. 8" non-Kuchera. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, jayyy said:

What’s the RDPS


.

RGEM--small version of the CMC basically

[NorthArlington101]

sleet line doesn't really move from here the rest of the run

[stormtracker]

Still going strong at 6z....man

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z RDPS.  I will take this in a heartbeat.

wow our standards have tanked!