Ginx snewx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Good way to learn about different snow situations for your location is to take good measurements and do core samples melt to get the LE then do the math for the ratios. Last week I ran 14 to 1 for 6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 21 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said: Kuchie will be more accurate than 10:1 with this airmass Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk Lol at you explaining something to one of the best, most experienced Mets in New England. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 5 minutes ago, subdude said: Sounds good. My wife's an RN and I have to get her to the hospital Monday morning for 7:30. That should be fun. Our daughter is a lift operator and has a shift for Sunday 3-closing and 7:30-3 on Monday. I hope they close or at least delay Monday's start. Roads will be awful 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I love when you talk dirty Hoar 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 H R cubed FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 HRRR with over a foot for a bunch of people by 9PM Sunday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Last week I ran 14 to 1 for 6 inches. Being in the coastal plain here, When the temps are marginal and we get wet snow, Its usually 6-7:1 based on measurement and LE, 10:1 is a good baseline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: HRRR with over a foot for a bunch of people by 9PM Sunday With 24-30 hours of snows to go too 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JKEisMan Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Relevant to the Kuchera numbers - on pivotal HRRR has three snowfall products: total snow, total snow (10:1) and total snow (Kuchera). If you look at total snow, which I assume uses some HRRR based algorithm for snow ratios, it’s actually higher than the Kuchera numbers. Should we not use that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Basically, since I don’t know anything about the science or how to assess it I just listen to what the national weather service discussions are saying and what people are saying in here and then just add or take away from the 10 to one ratio. I would think that we could do at least 12 to one on the overrunning if not a bit higher to 14:2and then on the coastal stuff I imagine we could do 20 to one. That’s how I get to 12 to 18 inches up here on .9 or 1 inch of liquid. I also think this could slightly overperformed because of how anomalous it is and how strong the moisture feed is so I factored that in as well. 18 inches is a stretch but 12 inches looks pretty sure I think unless some weird stuff happens with banding. Wouldn’t be the first time. but WTF do I know? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Hrrr gonna savage Your OES enhancement shows. Congrats on 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Your OES enhancement shows. Congrats on 20 I would need the sleet to stay away. But 12z hrrr has a little fire hose coming into BOS harbor at 12z with any mix CT to south of BOS going to snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 HRRR drags the low and redevelops back end snowsSent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 CF over Ray for a few hours verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, Prismshine Productions said: HRRR drags the low and redevelops back end snows Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk Yeah might be good for Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 This NAM run might be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 18 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said: Why do you think Kuchie struggles like it does? Honest question Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk It's too dependent on surface temps when once you're below 31 or 32F they don't make any difference at all. The key is to figure out how efficiently snowflakes are produced (maximized around -15C) and the favored crystal type which impacts the density of the snowfall (ratio). For any real skill you have to look at where lift is maximized and at what temperature and also the depth of the DGZ (-12c to -18c). Kuchera would do OK if you're right around 32F because it would skew numbers down in that case not due to bad snow growth but due to melting/compacting. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, CoastalWx said: I would need the sleet to stay away. But 12z hrrr has a little fire hose coming into BOS harbor at 12z with any mix CT to south of BOS going to snow. Sleet from the mid levels and snow from the salt nuclei in the low levels? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, CT Rain said: It's too dependent on surface temps when once you're below 31 or 32F they don't make any difference at all. The key is to figure out how efficiently snowflakes are produced (maximized around -15C) and the favored crystal type which impacts the density of the snowfall (ratio). For any real skill you have to look at where lift is maximized and at what temperature and also the depth of the DGZ (-12c to -18c). Kuchera would do OK if you're right around 32F because it would skew numbers down in that case not due to bad snow growth but due to melting/compacting. This will fall on deaf ears. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, dendrite said: Sleet from the mid levels and snow from the salt nuclei in the low levels? Very well might happen lol. Happened here Jan 94. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Sleet from the mid levels and snow from the salt nuclei in the low levels? I was thinking that too. Seems possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, CoastalWx said: I would need the sleet to stay away. But 12z hrrr has a little fire hose coming into BOS harbor at 12z with any mix CT to south of BOS going to snow. 10 to 1. Will make the onry Met happy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 31 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: I don't get the reduced snow depths along the immediate shores. The warm air is not coming in from the ocean, it is coming from the SW at 850mb and above. Ignore it for the coastline. Snow depth is a diagnostic product from each modeling system. It's masked for bodies of water... If you interpolate snow depth from a body of water (always 0") to a place over land (>>>0", in this case), it'll always have a tight gradient for coastal locations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 It's too dependent on surface temps when once you're below 31 or 32F they don't make any difference at all. The key is to figure out how efficiently snowflakes are produced (maximized around -15C) and the favored crystal type which impacts the density of the snowfall (ratio). For any real skill you have to look at where lift is maximized and at what temperature and also the depth of the DGZ (-12c to -18c). Kuchera would do OK if you're right around 32F because it would skew numbers down in that case not due to bad snow growth but due to melting/compacting.So if like in 30-32 go with Kuchie but below that go off QPF? thanks for the knowledge, now I see why Kuchie has such an antibiasSent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 10 to 1. Will make the onry Met happy. That isn’t 10:1 either. That’s a built in snow total the HRRR puts out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Talk about a juiced up system, 12z Nam. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JKEisMan Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 For reference to my above (serious) question. Is the answer we should chuck any snow ratio algorithms, just keep it simple at 10:1? 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 10 to 1. Will make the onry Met happy. Those ratios are actually higher than Kuchera, which is relevant to my question above. As an aside, I like the way that shows the Housatonic valley and relative orographic enhancement in New Fairfield at the intersection of Putnam, Dutchess, and Fairfield counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah might be good for Monday. WTTTE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Your OES enhancement shows. Congrats on 20 Looks like Ogunquit is about to fertilize 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 10 to 1. Will make the onry Met happy. Who’s horny? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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