“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Good way to learn about different snow situations for your location is to take good measurements and do core samples melt to get the LE then do the math for the ratios.

Last week I ran 14 to 1 for 6 inches.  

[mreaves]

21 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Kuchie will be more accurate than 10:1 with this airmass

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Lol at you explaining something to one of the best, most experienced Mets in New England. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

5 minutes ago, subdude said:

Sounds good. My wife's an RN and I have to get her to the hospital Monday morning for 7:30. That should be fun. 

Our daughter is a lift operator and has a shift for Sunday 3-closing and 7:30-3 on Monday.

I hope they close or at least delay Monday's  start.   Roads will be awful

[mahk_webstah]

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I love when you talk dirty 

Hoar 

[Damage In Tolland]

H R cubed FTW 

[HoarfrostHubb]

HRRR with over a foot for a bunch of people by 9PM Sunday

[dryslot]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Last week I ran 14 to 1 for 6 inches.  

Being in the coastal plain here, When the temps are marginal and we get wet snow, Its usually 6-7:1 based on measurement and LE, 10:1 is a good baseline.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

HRRR with over a foot for a bunch of people by 9PM Sunday

With 24-30 hours of snows to go too 

[JKEisMan]

Relevant to the Kuchera numbers - on pivotal HRRR has three snowfall products: total snow, total snow (10:1) and total snow (Kuchera). If you look at total snow, which I assume uses some HRRR based algorithm for snow ratios, it’s actually higher than the Kuchera numbers. Should we not use that?

[mahk_webstah]

Basically, since I don’t know anything about the science or how to assess it I just listen to what the national weather service discussions are saying and what people are saying in here and then just add or take away from the 10 to one ratio. I would think that we could do at least 12 to one on the overrunning if not a bit higher to 14:2and then on the coastal stuff I imagine we could do 20 to one. That’s how I get to 12 to 18 inches up here on .9 or 1 inch of liquid. I also think this could slightly overperformed because of how anomalous it is and how strong the moisture feed is so I factored that in as well. 18 inches is a stretch but 12 inches looks pretty sure I think unless some weird stuff happens with banding. Wouldn’t be the first time.

but WTF do I know?

[Ginx snewx]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hrrr gonna savage 

Your OES enhancement shows. Congrats on 20

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Your OES enhancement shows. Congrats on 20

I would need the sleet to stay away. But 12z hrrr has a little fire hose coming into BOS harbor at 12z with any mix CT to south of BOS going to snow.

[Prismshine Productions]

HRRR drags the low and redevelops back end snows

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[CoastalWx]

CF over Ray for a few hours verbatim. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Prismshine Productions said:

HRRR drags the low and redevelops back end snows

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Yeah might be good for Monday. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

This NAM run might be interesting 

[CT Rain]

18 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Why do you think Kuchie struggles like it does? Honest question

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It's too dependent on surface temps when once you're below 31 or 32F they don't make any difference at all.

 

The key is to figure out how efficiently snowflakes are produced (maximized around -15C) and the favored crystal type which impacts the density of the snowfall (ratio). 

 

For any real skill you have to look at where lift is maximized and at what temperature and also the depth of the DGZ (-12c to -18c). 

 

Kuchera would do OK if you're right around 32F because it would skew numbers down in that case not due to bad snow growth but due to melting/compacting.

[dendrite]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I would need the sleet to stay away. But 12z hrrr has a little fire hose coming into BOS harbor at 12z with any mix CT to south of BOS going to snow.

Sleet from the mid levels and snow from the salt nuclei in the low levels?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, CT Rain said:

It's too dependent on surface temps when once you're below 31 or 32F they don't make any difference at all.

 

The key is to figure out how efficiently snowflakes are produced (maximized around -15C) and the favored crystal type which impacts the density of the snowfall (ratio). 

 

For any real skill you have to look at where lift is maximized and at what temperature and also the depth of the DGZ (-12c to -18c). 

 

Kuchera would do OK if you're right around 32F because it would skew numbers down in that case not due to bad snow growth but due to melting/compacting.

This will fall on deaf ears.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, dendrite said:

Sleet from the mid levels and snow from the salt nuclei in the low levels?

Very well might happen lol. Happened here Jan 94. 

[CT Rain]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Sleet from the mid levels and snow from the salt nuclei in the low levels?

I was thinking that too. Seems possible.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I would need the sleet to stay away. But 12z hrrr has a little fire hose coming into BOS harbor at 12z with any mix CT to south of BOS going to snow.

10 to 1. Will make the onry Met happy. 

[MegaMike]

31 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

I don't get the reduced snow depths along the immediate shores.  The warm air is not coming in from the ocean, it is coming from the SW at 850mb and above.

Ignore it for the coastline. Snow depth is a diagnostic product from each modeling system. It's masked for bodies of water... If you interpolate snow depth from a body of water (always 0") to a place over land (>>>0", in this case), it'll always have a tight gradient for coastal locations.

[Prismshine Productions]

It's too dependent on surface temps when once you're below 31 or 32F they don't make any difference at all.
 
The key is to figure out how efficiently snowflakes are produced (maximized around -15C) and the favored crystal type which impacts the density of the snowfall (ratio). 
 
For any real skill you have to look at where lift is maximized and at what temperature and also the depth of the DGZ (-12c to -18c). 
 
Kuchera would do OK if you're right around 32F because it would skew numbers down in that case not due to bad snow growth but due to melting/compacting.

So if like in 30-32 go with Kuchie but below that go off QPF? thanks for the knowledge, now I see why Kuchie has such an antibias

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[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

10 to 1. Will make the onry Met happy. 

That isn’t 10:1 either. That’s a built in snow total the HRRR puts out

[dryslot]

Talk about a juiced up system, 12z Nam.

[JKEisMan]

For reference to my above (serious) question. Is the answer we should chuck any snow ratio algorithms, just keep it simple at 10:1? 

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

10 to 1. Will make the onry Met happy. 

Those ratios are actually higher than Kuchera, which is relevant to my question above. As an aside, I like the way that shows the Housatonic valley and relative orographic enhancement in New Fairfield at the intersection of Putnam, Dutchess, and Fairfield counties.

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah might be good for Monday. 

WTTTE 

[mahk_webstah]

14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Your OES enhancement shows. Congrats on 20

Looks like Ogunquit is about to fertilize

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

10 to 1. Will make the onry Met happy. 

Who’s horny?