“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah they have the snowfall map in the MA forum and it looks like their snowfall increased this run.

Thump was more impressive this run. That’s kind of the tradeoff. If you try and rip this north into a deep arctic airmass, you end up getting a stronger thump ahead of it. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, DavisStraight said:

Local Mets up here are saying 12-18.

Far southern Maine could get some high ratio goodies on Monday with the onshore flow. Good area to be. 

[JACKASS]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Why does the ukie hate NYC?

Just hates metfan, with good reason.

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That wasn’t anything close to the NAM thermally. 

I think they were hitting Bourbon up north pretty hard. Looks beast in SNE

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Basically dumps an inch of QPF in 12 hours on that thump. 

That looks more like I would expect with this wall of moisture moving north. Not these .7 to .8 stuff

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Far southern Maine could get some high ratio goodies on Monday with the onshore flow. Good area to be. 

CF hangs right there too.

[Damage In Tolland]

Nice snows Monday too .

[WxWatcher007]

A worthwhile read

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Nice snows Monday too .

Looks meh right now. I would rather the low south and have more erly flow over the cold dome.

[ScituateMA]

52 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

In which direction?

I think they will get more than 12 inches. Very very likely.

[weathafella]

11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Why does the ukie hate NYC?

18z uncle on a Friday.  Someone forgot to padlock the liquor cabinet….

[JACKASS]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

A worthwhile read

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd

Feel really bad for those going to get freezing rain!

My worst nightmare.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks meh right now. I would rather the low south and have more erly flow over the cold dome.

Yeah prob just 1-2” Monday on a more northerly track like that…it still rotates a band through with the main vort max at h5.

Maybe more on north shore and parts of south shore that stick out more that can catch a more northeast flow. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks meh right now. I would rather the low south and have more erly flow over the cold dome.

Add on a couple more during the day . East inflow. Upslope component . More by coast 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Add on a couple more during the day . East inflow. Upslope component . More by coast 

Winds go more northerly though if the low tracks more north like on 18z. So we need it to stay a little further south. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

This has been a 10” to 14” storm for days.

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Add on a couple more during the day . East inflow. Upslope component . More by coast 

We need some messenger ticks to make it happen 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Winds go more northerly though if the low tracks more north like on 18z. So we need it to stay a little further south. 

Yeah but I mean it should end up more south come go time  . These snowy patterns tend to deliver and over perform . The tables have turned 

[dryslot]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think they were hitting Bourbon up north pretty hard. Looks beast in SNE

Hit a few of these.

 

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

18z uncle on a Friday.  Someone forgot to padlock the liquor cabinet….

I did. Shot Hour!

[SouthCoastMA]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks meh right now. I would rather the low south and have more erly flow over the cold dome.

nah we need mpm to get 2 more inches 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

It’s a SWFE, I don’t understand why there’s been hype wrt 18”+ totals?

Sure, there might be some lollies on the coast, but for the interior folks it’s moving out too quickly to be anything historic.  
 

Should be pretty awesome and wintry for everybody so sit back and enjoy.

[Damage In Tolland]

Stein chucking deep

https://x.com/growingwisdom/status/2014838042087854473?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah but I mean it should end up more south come go time  . These snowy patterns tend to deliver and over perform . The tables have turned 

It might. Just saying that we would reduce Monday snowfall if it ends up a bit north. We’d still prob get a band of steady snow for a few hours with the vortmax rolling through…even the northerly solutions still have that. But if we want a positive bust to the upside, keep that low a little south and rip 40+ knots at 925 out of the east and ENE. That would help give us high ratio fluff that lasts into the evening. 

[SouthCoastMA]

6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

We need some messenger ticks to make it happen 

once we're 24-36 hrs out, we'll see if we can get a couple 

[WxWatcher007]

4.1° here at WXW2. 9° in Amarillo with -SN and a wind chill of -9.

[Baroclinic Zone]

22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Basically dumps an inch of QPF in 12 hours on that thump. 

Yeah, most models are going apeshit with 1”+ over 12hrs. Wild ride coming.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Yeah, most models are going apeshit with 1”+ over 12hrs. Wild ride coming.

This time Sunday evening will be pretty fun. Should be some crazy rates for a time. 

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It might. Just saying that we would reduce Monday snowfall if it ends up a bit north. We’d still prob get a band of steady snow for a few hours with the vortmax rolling through…even the northerly solutions still have that. But if we want a positive bust to the upside, keep that low a little south and rip 40+ knots at 925 out of the east and ENE. That would help give us high ratio fluff that lasts into the evening. 

This is so reminiscent of those 92-93/2011 winters. Those always ramped up qpf in the days prior and usually delivered more than folks were thinking . This one just has that look and feel 

[dryslot]

Slowly bumping up as tenth at a time, Getting close to 1.0" qpf, 0.87"