“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

This will be one of those events too where Ray is clearing every 6hrs and ends up with 5” more than the guy across the street who sticks his yardstick in at the end. 1”+ of QPF as primarily fluff will have natural compaction.

Ray 27”

1717  20”

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, not my map...just trying to rationalize. Wankum is awful...you know my thoughts on him.

Mike Margavage

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

This will be one of those events too where Ray is clearing every 6hrs and ends up with 5” more than the guy across the street who sticks his yardstick in at the end. 1”+ of QPF as primarily fluff will have natural compaction.

Yup. This is why my 2018 measurement got tossed. My new practice in these events is to report storm snowfall and depth.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ray 27”

1717  20”

Pretty much.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ray 27”

1717  20”

I can’t wait for BOX to delete his total from the PNS

[mahk_webstah]

48 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This type of system is not gonna produce 2’ in a broad area. You want to see the coastal take over and slow to even entertain it.

You are reflecting the trap in snowfall forecasting.  if a meteorologist forecasts 6 to 12 inches people immediately say there’s gonna be a foot of snow. One to 2 feet reflects the reality of the models as Jeff said earlier, which is regionwide 12+. It would not be surprising that there would be lollies 2 feet. Yes it’s aggressive three days out, but it lets people know this is gonna be an exceptional storm. Just the cold itself is gonna make it exceptional beyond heavy snow. 

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ray 27”

1717  20”

 

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ray 27”

1717  20”

My 3rd string QB had to start the game...

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

You are reflecting the trap in snowfall forecasting.  if a meteorologist forecasts 6 to 12 inches people immediately say there’s gonna be a foot of snow. One to 2 feet reflects the reality of the models as Jeff said earlier, which is regionwide 12+. It would not be surprising that there would be lollies 2 feet. Yes it’s aggressive three days out, but it lets people know this is gonna be an exceptional storm. Just the cold itself is gonna make it exceptional beyond heavy snow. 

Yeah I don’t see lollies to 24”.

[mahk_webstah]

Just now, dendrite said:

Yeah I don’t see lollies to 24”.

Well, you know a lot more than I do lol. Maybe 10 to 20 would’ve been better.

[dryslot]

Easier to clear every 6 hrs or so and keep a running tally until the end if its possible.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

You are reflecting the trap in snowfall forecasting.  if a meteorologist forecasts 6 to 12 inches people immediately say there’s gonna be a foot of snow. One to 2 feet reflects the reality of the models as Jeff said earlier, which is regionwide 12+. It would not be surprising that there would be lollies 2 feet. Yes it’s aggressive three days out, but it lets people know this is gonna be an exceptional storm. Just the cold itself is gonna make it exceptional beyond heavy snow. 

I simply disagree. Weenies like it because they’re well weenies. If I had my forecaster hat on there is no way I would put that out over 3 days out. Maybe tomorrow I fine tune mesoscale jacks. Public or customers will see that and flip out. 10-18 would cover it for now.

[mahk_webstah]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I simply disagree. Weenies like it because they’re well weenies. If I had my forecaster hat on there is no way I would put that out over 3 days out. Maybe tomorrow I fine tune mesoscale jacks. Public or customers will see that and flip out. 10-18 would cover it for now.

Oh, I think you’re right. But I think it’s not just weenies who assume that the top range of a forecast is what will verify. The general public I think falls into that trap.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I simply disagree. Weenies like it because they’re well weenies. If I had my forecaster hat on there is no way I would put that out over 3 days out. Maybe tomorrow I fine tune mesoscale jacks. Public or customers will see that and flip out. 10-18 would cover it for now.

It's laziness and sensationalism all tied into one terd.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Got my ranges...just need to get the time to draw everything up.

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Easier to clear every 6 hrs or so and keep a running tally until the end if its possible.

But did that much really fall if it’s not OTG?

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Got my ranges...just need to get the time to draw everything up.

Will arrows be used?

[dryslot]

Its mainly click bait, In no way i would go out of the gate with the upper end of the potential scale.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

But did that much really fall if it’s not OTG?

Yes...it fell and sublimated/compacted, which are every bit as valid of physical processes as melting. Did it fall if it melts?

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

But did that much really fall if it’s not OTG?

It suppose to be on a snowboard, And yes, There would be more on a board then the ground, You have melting and compaction factors.

[Cyclone-68]

I really miss the days of Harvey Leonard and Bruce Schwoegler. Both good mets and loved snow. I don’t know the name of anyone on 4, 5, 7 except for Wankum and I concur with the opinion about him above 

[dryslot]

If a tree fell in the woods and no one heard does it mean it didn't fall?     

[Great Snow 1717]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Pretty much.

1/28-1/29 2022...

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Oh, I think you’re right. But I think it’s not just weenies who assume that the top range of a forecast is what will verify. The general public I think falls into that trap.

OK, for some reason, I thought you were kind of disagreeing with me. Anyways, I don’t wanna be a dead horse… I hope we can at least get 12 to 18 regionwide.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, dryslot said:

If a tree fell in the woods and no one heard does it mean it didn't fall?     

If a weenie fell on your face and nobody saw it, did it really happen?

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

If a tree fell in the woods and no one heard does it mean it didn't fall?     

Ask the chipmunk it squashed 

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

But did that much really fall if it’s not OTG?

If I measure in May did it even snow all winter?

[Chrisrotary12]

Can't wait for that NAM run that captures the surface low, nukes the CCB and gives everyone 2-3' kuchera wise.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

It suppose to be on a snowboard, And yes, There would be more on a board then the ground, You have melting and compaction factors.

If a weenie slaps across your face while sleeping and you don’t wake up.. did it slap across your face?

[MaineJayhawk]

Just now, dendrite said:

If I measure in May did it even snow all winter?

Wouldn’t matter if you measured in S Wey

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Will arrows be used?

Yes