Damage In Tolland Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, dendrite said: This will be one of those events too where Ray is clearing every 6hrs and ends up with 5” more than the guy across the street who sticks his yardstick in at the end. 1”+ of QPF as primarily fluff will have natural compaction. Ray 27” 1717 20” 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, not my map...just trying to rationalize. Wankum is awful...you know my thoughts on him. Mike Margavage 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: This will be one of those events too where Ray is clearing every 6hrs and ends up with 5” more than the guy across the street who sticks his yardstick in at the end. 1”+ of QPF as primarily fluff will have natural compaction. Yup. This is why my 2018 measurement got tossed. My new practice in these events is to report storm snowfall and depth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ray 27” 1717 20” Pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ray 27” 1717 20” I can’t wait for BOX to delete his total from the PNS 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 48 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This type of system is not gonna produce 2’ in a broad area. You want to see the coastal take over and slow to even entertain it. You are reflecting the trap in snowfall forecasting. if a meteorologist forecasts 6 to 12 inches people immediately say there’s gonna be a foot of snow. One to 2 feet reflects the reality of the models as Jeff said earlier, which is regionwide 12+. It would not be surprising that there would be lollies 2 feet. Yes it’s aggressive three days out, but it lets people know this is gonna be an exceptional storm. Just the cold itself is gonna make it exceptional beyond heavy snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ray 27” 1717 20” 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ray 27” 1717 20” My 3rd string QB had to start the game... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: You are reflecting the trap in snowfall forecasting. if a meteorologist forecasts 6 to 12 inches people immediately say there’s gonna be a foot of snow. One to 2 feet reflects the reality of the models as Jeff said earlier, which is regionwide 12+. It would not be surprising that there would be lollies 2 feet. Yes it’s aggressive three days out, but it lets people know this is gonna be an exceptional storm. Just the cold itself is gonna make it exceptional beyond heavy snow. Yeah I don’t see lollies to 24”. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, dendrite said: Yeah I don’t see lollies to 24”. Well, you know a lot more than I do lol. Maybe 10 to 20 would’ve been better. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Easier to clear every 6 hrs or so and keep a running tally until the end if its possible. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: You are reflecting the trap in snowfall forecasting. if a meteorologist forecasts 6 to 12 inches people immediately say there’s gonna be a foot of snow. One to 2 feet reflects the reality of the models as Jeff said earlier, which is regionwide 12+. It would not be surprising that there would be lollies 2 feet. Yes it’s aggressive three days out, but it lets people know this is gonna be an exceptional storm. Just the cold itself is gonna make it exceptional beyond heavy snow. I simply disagree. Weenies like it because they’re well weenies. If I had my forecaster hat on there is no way I would put that out over 3 days out. Maybe tomorrow I fine tune mesoscale jacks. Public or customers will see that and flip out. 10-18 would cover it for now. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, CoastalWx said: I simply disagree. Weenies like it because they’re well weenies. If I had my forecaster hat on there is no way I would put that out over 3 days out. Maybe tomorrow I fine tune mesoscale jacks. Public or customers will see that and flip out. 10-18 would cover it for now. Oh, I think you’re right. But I think it’s not just weenies who assume that the top range of a forecast is what will verify. The general public I think falls into that trap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I simply disagree. Weenies like it because they’re well weenies. If I had my forecaster hat on there is no way I would put that out over 3 days out. Maybe tomorrow I fine tune mesoscale jacks. Public or customers will see that and flip out. 10-18 would cover it for now. It's laziness and sensationalism all tied into one terd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Got my ranges...just need to get the time to draw everything up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: Easier to clear every 6 hrs or so and keep a running tally until the end if its possible. But did that much really fall if it’s not OTG? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Got my ranges...just need to get the time to draw everything up. Will arrows be used? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Its mainly click bait, In no way i would go out of the gate with the upper end of the potential scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: But did that much really fall if it’s not OTG? Yes...it fell and sublimated/compacted, which are every bit as valid of physical processes as melting. Did it fall if it melts? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: But did that much really fall if it’s not OTG? It suppose to be on a snowboard, And yes, There would be more on a board then the ground, You have melting and compaction factors. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I really miss the days of Harvey Leonard and Bruce Schwoegler. Both good mets and loved snow. I don’t know the name of anyone on 4, 5, 7 except for Wankum and I concur with the opinion about him above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 If a tree fell in the woods and no one heard does it mean it didn't fall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Pretty much. 1/28-1/29 2022... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 6 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Oh, I think you’re right. But I think it’s not just weenies who assume that the top range of a forecast is what will verify. The general public I think falls into that trap. OK, for some reason, I thought you were kind of disagreeing with me. Anyways, I don’t wanna be a dead horse… I hope we can at least get 12 to 18 regionwide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, dryslot said: If a tree fell in the woods and no one heard does it mean it didn't fall? If a weenie fell on your face and nobody saw it, did it really happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, dryslot said: If a tree fell in the woods and no one heard does it mean it didn't fall? Ask the chipmunk it squashed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: But did that much really fall if it’s not OTG? If I measure in May did it even snow all winter? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Can't wait for that NAM run that captures the surface low, nukes the CCB and gives everyone 2-3' kuchera wise. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: It suppose to be on a snowboard, And yes, There would be more on a board then the ground, You have melting and compaction factors. If a weenie slaps across your face while sleeping and you don’t wake up.. did it slap across your face? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, dendrite said: If I measure in May did it even snow all winter? Wouldn’t matter if you measured in S Wey 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Will arrows be used? Yes 2 25 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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