January 25-26 Winter Storm Potential

[Ralph Wiggum]

6z euro caved with mixing up to i80. 

Thinking 4-8" here is a good bet topped with sleet. 

[mattinpa]

Still calling for 6-10” here though may still be higher if the mix line is off. Seems some compromising is happening on the models. 

[Birds~69]

26 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

6z euro caved with mixing up to i80. 

Thinking 4-8" here is a good bet topped with sleet. 

I'd be surprised if we received anything <6"...

Cold/crisp out there 6F

[Voyager]

37 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

6z euro caved with mixing up to i80. 

Thinking 4-8" here is a good bet topped with sleet. 

Up to I-80 where? With 6 hour increments, I don't see mixing anywhere near I-80 except perhaps in New Jersey.

[Hurricane Agnes]

6zs - 3k NAM & EC - 

 

[Newman]

We just have to see how hot and heavy that initial thump comes in, especially for NW of 95. HRDPS is advertising 8-10"+ in 6 hours tomorrow morning. Just based on experience, I'd imagine some places could even grab 12" in that time

[Ralph Wiggum]

13 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Up to I-80 where? With 6 hour increments, I don't see mixing anywhere near I-80 except perhaps in New Jersey.

 

[Voyager]

Ah. Gotcha. I don't have Wx Bell.

[Duca892]

Based off of what this has turned into next weeks storm can stay squashed until roughly Saturday before it wants to trend north

[Hurricane Agnes]

The GFS 6z just for completeness although we are obviously in the mesos/short term ranges.

[BlueDXer75]

15 minutes ago, Newman said:

We just have to see how hot and heavy that initial thump comes in, especially for NW of 95. HRDPS is advertising 8-10"+ in 6 hours tomorrow morning. Just based on experience, I'd imagine some places could even grab 12" in that time

I think 10-12 is a good call for Berks County.  Maybe up to 14 depending on rates and change to sleet.  Regardless, this will become a glacier.  

[Voyager]

9 minutes ago, BlueDXer75 said:

I think 10-12 is a good call for Berks County.  Maybe up to 14 depending on rates and change to sleet.  Regardless, this will become a glacier.  

And for areas that don't see sleet, some blowing and drifting will be problems with wind gusts up to 25mph after the storm passes.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, Birds~69 said:

I'd be surprised if we received anything <6"...

Cold/crisp out there 6F

6" is reasonable for our location. Seeing alot of posts here and FB on how we won't see less than 12" because this is a 16 hr storm. People are forgetting only about 4-5 hours of it is actually clean snow for our areas (7am-noon?). Past 12 hrs the trend now is a quicker flip as the warm tongue screams N and W. Just hoping this isnt it and 2 weeks of cold/dry -> spring. 

[Physicsteve]

Too much stj involvement after being quiet all winter? Fetch off the gulf torching the mid levels? It’s plenty cold down here as advertised. 

[Mikeymac5306]

Weather Sentry jumped up pulling 12-15 MBY. Not sure what that is based off of. 

 

Bigger front end thump? 

[mattinpa]

My forecast says 7-13”. 7” could happen with a lot of sleet. Higher totals with less sleet would actually be easier to deal with. 

[Newman]

Long range HRRR finally getting a clue and sending the sleet line up to I-78, but quickly washes it out and sends it back south.

[Physicsteve]

Since we already have cold above and below, this one’s gotta ‘make its own cold air’ by mixing rather than evaporative cooling. Is that in the handbook?

[JTA66]

20 minutes ago, Newman said:

Long range HRRR finally getting a clue and sending the sleet line up to I-78, but quickly washes it out and sends it back south.

Also flips Philly and the burbs over to light freezing drizzle late Sunday evening.

Doubt there will be radar hallucinations with this, should come in hot & heavy. But maybe some weenie wishcasting, “the low is 5 miles further south than modeled 120hrs ago, it’s coming in colder!”.

9F/DP -5F

[Hurricane Agnes]

16 minutes ago, Physicsteve said:

Since we already have cold above and below, this one’s gotta ‘make its own cold air’ by mixing rather than evaporative cooling. Is that in the handbook?

What popped in my mind is a "clash of the titans".  If it snows hard enough and the cold air clashes with the warm nose, it could get convective and maybe even produce "thundersnow".  It seems all these signals for a big "thump to sleet" suggests some high in/hr before a changeover.

ETA - 12z 3k NAM running...

[JTA66]

Agnes can post the pretty maps, but looks like the NAM is spitting out 2.5” of IP. That will be fun to shovel.

[Ralph Wiggum]

NAM says mix line might get to NY border. Keeps plowing N. Writing is on the wall with this one. Mainly a sLeet/icing event much of SE PA after a 4-hr thump. 

[Duca892]

What a depressing end of the modeling for this storm. Just a run of the mill 4-7in slop storm for many 

[Mikeymac5306]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

NAM says mix line might get to NY border. Keeps plowing N. Writing is on the wall with this one. Mainly a sLeet/icing event much of SE PA after a 4-hr thump. 

If that's the case, I am wondering how bad the Ice will be? Not 1994 like but maybe 2014 like? 

[Ralph Wiggum]

FV3 ticked N with the mixing. A little less white a little more ice. Scary thing is there is still 24 hrs to go this could continue to trend worse. This is turning into a major ice situation for SE PA now?

[Kevin Reilly]

27 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

NAM says mix line might get to NY border. Keeps plowing N. Writing is on the wall with this one. Mainly a sLeet/icing event much of SE PA after a 4-hr thump. 

I think I see 0.40” liquid for freezing rain power outages hopefully it’s not that radial freezing rain that MGorse was talking about yesterday.  We cannot lose power with that cold coming behind the storm. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, Mikeymac5306 said:

If that's the case, I am wondering how bad the Ice will be? Not 1994 like but maybe 2014 like? 

I feel we are headed that way unfortunately. Bigger story with this will be the icing/sleet and not the snow.

[Hurricane Agnes]

10 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Agnes can post the pretty maps, but looks like the NAM is spitting out 2.5” of IP. That will be fun to shovel.

Your wish is my command!

[Physicsteve]

Yes the very heavy rates before the flip will be bittersweet. Gotta max out our thump. 

[Heisy]

Still going with my call: 3-5” snow Philly, then sleet accumulation, and a glaze at the end

Immediate burbs 4-8”, then sleet and ZR

My coworker last night asked me if we were getting a foot of snow in Philly Ralph, I feel like when we’re sleeting and raining all afternoon people are going to be complaining about the forecasts, but at least the warning is out there that is a major event in totality. Wonder if it’ll hit a nesis scale


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