January 25-26 Winter Storm Potential

[RedSky]

Nothing like the Ukie though

[RedSky]

ECM is long duration adds up 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Euro is a major hit. 

GFS is shit

[RedSky]

I don't have maps but ECM likely 10-15" kuchera area wide

[NJHurricane]

9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Paul showing qpf, im talking actual surface low position was N

Yeah the precip field compressed.

[ChescoWx]

[ChescoWx]

NBM with an increase 

[Physicsteve]

7 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Even being kuchera, that’s a whoa from Euro. Haven’t been many maps looking like that that aren’t of the full 300+ hour run. This time the fantasy storm is only 120 hours out and the whole region gets the goods. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

13 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

NBM with an increase 

Wow

...thats a jump if we r being honest. Where do I sign?

[Newman]

EPS also bumped up quite a bit from what I saw. Widespread 6-8" across SE PA at 10:1. Ratios get you 8-12". I think most would sign up for that

[anthonyweather]

this is super concerning

 

[coastal front]

Man it doesn’t get much better then this. I feel our region has the most wiggle room with multiple ways to score. Let’s keep fine tuning the details


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[RedSky]

2 minutes ago, coastal front said:

Man it doesn’t get much better then this. I feel our region has the most wiggle room with multiple ways to score. Let’s keep fine tuning the details


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Not every winter with a cold smoke powder storm in Atlantic City

 

[No Snow Flo]

5 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:

this is super concerning

 

At least 9 states will have major distribution problems and possibly generation/transmission issues due to loss of load. Your looking at the possibility of over a million customers off-line for an extended period in frigid conditions. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

12 minutes ago, coastal front said:

Man it doesn’t get much better then this. I feel our region has the most wiggle room with multiple ways to score. Let’s keep fine tuning the details


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Completely agreed. Probably wont end up a HECS, that would be mega rare in a Nina. But a MECS is clearly on the table and I dont think a single one of us would have scoffed at this potential going into a Nina winter. I always say keep expectations low.

[RedSky]

10 minutes ago, No Snow Flo said:

At least 9 states will have major distribution problems and possibly generation/transmission issues due to loss of load. Your looking at the possibility of over a million customers off-line for an extended period in frigid conditions. 

No power Flo

[anthonyweather]

EURO ENS are much better than 00z

 

[No Snow Flo]

36 minutes ago, RedSky said:

No power Flo

No, we're not expecting those problems up here, at least not as of the 1300 conference call. SERC and ERCOT are going to have their hands full. 

[Army Mike]

You all are all awesome been following this forum since 08 I think. Which short range model has the best handling of the H5 pattern. I only ask cause I like to just observed the baja feature in the short term. I guess since so much hinges on this coming together. I think that makes since


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[The Iceman]

56 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Completely agreed. Probably wont end up a HECS, that would be mega rare in a Nina. But a MECS is clearly on the table and I dont think a single one of us would have scoffed at this potential going into a Nina winter. I always say keep expectations low.

Absolutely, I think the high end is a mecs, but in a Nina day 5 is an eternity. Especially with how poor the models have handled systems this year. Low expectations are key. It’s the best potential we’ve had in many years though. 

[The Iceman]

1 hour ago, anthonyweather said:

this is super concerning

 

My parents and grandparents live in simpsonville, sc , that would be a disaster down there… hoping it’s wrong and ends up more sleety.

[Birds~69]

1 hour ago, RedSky said:

No power Flo

First thing that entered my mind...

 

[No Snow Flo]

13 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

First thing that entered my mind...

 

Lol. If that's all it takes to keep it to C-2", I'll do it all week long and twice on Sundays. 

[Voyager]

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Euro is a major hit. 

GFS is shit

Poetry in motion...lol

[Albedoman]

1 hour ago, Army Mike said:

You all are all awesome been following this forum since 08 I think. Which short range model has the best handling of the H5 pattern. I only ask cause I like to just observed the baja feature in the short term. I guess since so much hinges on this coming together. I think that makes since


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NAM at 48-56  hours HRRR at 36 to tighten it up. Thursday evening will tell us all what is going to happen, The watches should be out by then 

[Violentweatherfan]

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Completely agreed. Probably wont end up a HECS, that would be mega rare in a Nina. But a MECS is clearly on the table and I dont think a single one of us would have scoffed at this potential going into a Nina winter. I always say keep expectations low.

Actually weak La Niña winters are great for big winter snows

[Albedoman]

5 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

Actually weak La Niña winters are great for big winter snows

On 9/19/2025 at 1:14 PM, I said:

I am not too worried yet. Its dry like this on average years during this time frame.  Concerns:

1. Being a neutral year, we are in for a real cold and snowy winter which will definitely help the groundwater tables. See lots of northeaster's and the potential freezing rain/sleet  events early in December.  Expecting some nice rains by mid October as the warm pattern breaks down.  A good tropical storm up the east coast can really help get us out this stubborn pattern.

Said this Nov 23

The models have shown only one positive thing in the last two weeks for a major pattern change and a possible major snow event for us but when it will ever occur will just be plain luck.  If you old timers recognize the current major pattern shift on the last weeks runs which we have not seen in nearly 6-10 years is identified as the four corner lows which are developing and pushing into the Gulf of America. Then these lows are quickly re-energized with a ton of moisture and are setting up for a good Miller A type of storm event- rain or snow along the east coast.  The lows  south of New Orleans into Tampa are impressive on the model runs. This is the best look in model runs in a long time  as it  appears the GOA is opening back up for business, however these low pressure systems are also quickly becoming southern sliders too.  The cold dry air that does come through with a cold front is NOT retreating back up into Canada so quickly before the moisture reaches us. Would not be surprised if the Carolina's up to Washington DC sees more accumulating snow then us  this year. 

 

 

[Birds~69]

17 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

NAM at 48-56  hours HRRR at 36 to tighten it up. Thursday evening will tell us all what is going to happen, The watches should be out by then 

You think that early?

 

[Army Mike]

NAM at 48-56  hours HRRR at 36 to tighten it up. Thursday evening will tell us all what is going to happen, The watches should be out by then 

Thank you


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