January 25-26 Winter Storm Potential

[RedSky]

Nothing like the Ukie though

[RedSky]

ECM is long duration adds up 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Euro is a major hit. 

GFS is shit

[RedSky]

I don't have maps but ECM likely 10-15" kuchera area wide

[NJHurricane]

9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Paul showing qpf, im talking actual surface low position was N

Yeah the precip field compressed.

[ChescoWx]

[ChescoWx]

NBM with an increase 

[Physicsteve]

7 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Even being kuchera, that’s a whoa from Euro. Haven’t been many maps looking like that that aren’t of the full 300+ hour run. This time the fantasy storm is only 120 hours out and the whole region gets the goods. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

13 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

NBM with an increase 

Wow

...thats a jump if we r being honest. Where do I sign?

[Newman]

EPS also bumped up quite a bit from what I saw. Widespread 6-8" across SE PA at 10:1. Ratios get you 8-12". I think most would sign up for that

[anthonyweather]

this is super concerning

 

[coastal front]

Man it doesn’t get much better then this. I feel our region has the most wiggle room with multiple ways to score. Let’s keep fine tuning the details


.

[RedSky]

2 minutes ago, coastal front said:

Man it doesn’t get much better then this. I feel our region has the most wiggle room with multiple ways to score. Let’s keep fine tuning the details


.

Not every winter with a cold smoke powder storm in Atlantic City

 

[No Snow Flo]

5 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:

this is super concerning

 

At least 9 states will have major distribution problems and possibly generation/transmission issues due to loss of load. Your looking at the possibility of over a million customers off-line for an extended period in frigid conditions. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

12 minutes ago, coastal front said:

Man it doesn’t get much better then this. I feel our region has the most wiggle room with multiple ways to score. Let’s keep fine tuning the details


.

Completely agreed. Probably wont end up a HECS, that would be mega rare in a Nina. But a MECS is clearly on the table and I dont think a single one of us would have scoffed at this potential going into a Nina winter. I always say keep expectations low.

[RedSky]

10 minutes ago, No Snow Flo said:

At least 9 states will have major distribution problems and possibly generation/transmission issues due to loss of load. Your looking at the possibility of over a million customers off-line for an extended period in frigid conditions. 

No power Flo

[anthonyweather]

EURO ENS are much better than 00z

 

[No Snow Flo]

36 minutes ago, RedSky said:

No power Flo

No, we're not expecting those problems up here, at least not as of the 1300 conference call. SERC and ERCOT are going to have their hands full. 

[Army Mike]

You all are all awesome been following this forum since 08 I think. Which short range model has the best handling of the H5 pattern. I only ask cause I like to just observed the baja feature in the short term. I guess since so much hinges on this coming together. I think that makes since


.

[The Iceman]

56 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Completely agreed. Probably wont end up a HECS, that would be mega rare in a Nina. But a MECS is clearly on the table and I dont think a single one of us would have scoffed at this potential going into a Nina winter. I always say keep expectations low.

Absolutely, I think the high end is a mecs, but in a Nina day 5 is an eternity. Especially with how poor the models have handled systems this year. Low expectations are key. It’s the best potential we’ve had in many years though. 

[The Iceman]

1 hour ago, anthonyweather said:

this is super concerning

 

My parents and grandparents live in simpsonville, sc , that would be a disaster down there… hoping it’s wrong and ends up more sleety.

[Birds~69]

1 hour ago, RedSky said:

No power Flo

First thing that entered my mind...

 

[No Snow Flo]

13 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

First thing that entered my mind...

 

Lol. If that's all it takes to keep it to C-2", I'll do it all week long and twice on Sundays.