Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/24 - 1/26

[Nibor]

I like that Ukie run

[wxman]

Just now, Nibor said:

I like that Ukie run

Me too!

[SACRUS]

UKMT

 

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, Nibor said:

I like that Ukie run

There's something wrong with it. 10" in coastal Virginia? 

[Winterweatherlover]

UKIE is basically all snow for NYC but remains dry.

[SACRUS]

 

1/24 00z UKMT

Total QPF Storm

 

 

Total Snow (10:1)

[jm1220]

Just now, Winterweatherlover said:

UKIE is basically all snow for NYC but remains dry.

There's been something off with the snow maps and precip totals. It has 1.01" liquid in Montauk for example but 12" of snow on the 10:1 map. It looks cold to me which is great but 18z had the same problem. 

[jbenedet]

7 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

00z GEFS

Total QPF

 

Total snow mean (10:1)

I’ve been saying a NYC and Boston jackpots.

both have meso enhancements from a stationary coastal front and no mixing… In the case of NYC, it’s on the line of current guidance but I think it sticks with 90%+ snow.

That’s a solid endorsement now by the GEFS.

[SACRUS]

 

1/24 00z GGEM

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Volcanic Winter]

Yeah, I think I might pay back some to NYC for 1/29/22 - and I’m cool with that. 

[David-LI]

[hooralph]

7 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Do I need to post the pound of feathers vs pound of rocks analogy again?

He must have meant 2” LE / hr at 15:1, which would be 30”/hr and indeed pile up very quickly.

[SACRUS]

 

 

1/24 00z GGEM

Total QPF

 

 

Total Snow (10:1)

[Mo Snow]

When are we expecting this to start? How am I looking for a Sunday morning commute from NYC to Philly. Obviously the earlier the better but is it going to get crazy by 10AM?

[Snowlover11]

18 minutes ago, Snowman92 said:

If anybody has some insight:

1. Will we be fighting virga with this storm ? Or will one strong band fix that immediately

2. Would this be impressive if the GFS actually verifies and we get exactly as it has shown ? This is quite a few runs now that are the same and have not budged at all 

Might be some virga for an hour or two, but this is going go to come in like a wall.

[jm1220]

GGEM looked good, not as good as RGEM but solid. IMBY it has 10" of snow at 10-1 then probably 0.3" liquid as sleet so that would add another inch. 

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I’ve been saying a NYC and Boston jackpots.

both have meso enhancements from a stationary coastal front and no mixing… In the case of NYC, it’s on the line of current guidance but I think it sticks with 90%+ snow.

That’s a solid endorsement now by the GEFS.

Hopefully you're right. I highly doubt we jackpot around here in this type of system, I can definitely see it for I-84 corridor to Boston. 

[Winterweatherlover]

1 minute ago, Mo Snow said:

When are we expecting this to start? How am I looking for a Sunday morning commute from NYC to Philly. Obviously the earlier the better but is it going to get crazy by 10AM?

Precip starts around 7:00 am in NYC and earlier in Philly and picks up rapidly pretty fast. Yes especially driving toward Philly will be crazy by 10:00 AM.

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

1/24 00Z

NYC

QPF / Snow (Frz)

SREF (mean):  1.3 /  9.7
NAM:   1.2 / 4.7
ICON: 1.4 / 8.1
RGEM: 1.2 / 9.5
GFS: 1/3 / 11.1
GFS AI AIGFS: 1.1 / 9.8
GEFS:   1.5 / 10.3
UKMET: 0.9 / 7.4
GGEM: 1.3 / 9.1
 

Updated

[Nibor]

4 minutes ago, Mo Snow said:

When are we expecting this to start? How am I looking for a Sunday morning commute from NYC to Philly. Obviously the earlier the better but is it going to get crazy by 10AM?

 

Good luck have fun

[mriceyman]

When are we expecting this to start? How am I looking for a Sunday morning commute from NYC to Philly. Obviously the earlier the better but is it going to get crazy by 10AM?

Yes it will be a mess by 10 am


.

[psv88]

Hi Res RGEM is dope. Crazy thump 

[Tatamy]

22 minutes ago, Snowman92 said:

If anybody has some insight:

1. Will we be fighting virga with this storm ? Or will one strong band fix that immediately

2. Would this be impressive if the GFS actually verifies and we get exactly as it has shown ? This is quite a few runs now that are the same and have not budged at all 

Model outputs that I have been seeing show the snow arriving as light in the predawn hours Sunday and then ramping up.  Regarding the GPS do you really think it will verify?

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Hi Res RGEM is dope. Crazy thump 

Its so slow on pivotal

[Nibor]

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Hellacious. That's exactly what we need to max out the potential from this. 

[wthrmn654]

15.5

[Nibor]

[SACRUS]

00z euro 

 

[Mo Snow]

0z Euro Kuchera. Looking more like 0z gfs?