jm1220 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: No it doesnt. Mid layer warmth. Primary hangs around longer Yikes The 700 and 850 lows track over Lake Erie. Guaranteed we will mix with that and we have to hope the precip is largely over by then. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 really a kick in the balls verbatim from the nam east of the Garden State Parkway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: The 700 and 850 lows track over Lake Erie. Guaranteed we will mix with that and we have to hope the precip is largely over by then. It will be. We are still going to see a big snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 NAM seems kind of dry too compared to other models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 i'd go with hrrr once in range. Nam sucks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said: NAM seems kind of dry too compared to other models. No. Its over an inch of liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said: i'd go with hrrr once in range. Nam sucks Agreed Nam is trash beyond 48hrs Just now, Krs4Lfe said: The path of least resistance is clear here. I believe this will trend north and warmer with more sleet leading up to the day of the event. The GFS is wrong. This is a big SWFE. We will all mix and lots of it Ok bye 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mo Snow Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 NAM 12k has sleet all the way to Allentown? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: NAM seems kind of dry too compared to other models. its spits out 1.3 for central jersey north and 1.7 extreme coast south jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, Mo Snow said: NAM 12k has sleet all the way to Allentown? Sleet to Mt Pocono Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It will be. We are still going to see a big snowfall. That seems to be nws is thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 00z Total QPF / Snow / Sleet NYC SREF: 1.3 / (8.4) NAM: 1.3 / (8.4) RGEM: 1.4 / (8.6) ICON: 1.3 / (7.5) GFS AI AIGFS: 1.1 / ( 10) GFS: 1.4 / (14.8) GGEM: 1.5 / (8.2) UKMET: 0.9 - 11 / (6 - 10) GEFS: 1.4 / (14) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Question for mets or anyone knowledgeable. Why does the NBM continue to show 12-18 inches area wide (even the ongoing 01z run)? What is this model “blending?” Serious question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, chrisNJ said: Question for mets or anyone knowledgeable. Why does the NBM continue to show 12-18 inches area wide (even the ongoing 01z run)? What is this model “blending?” Serious question. Tequila 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, chrisNJ said: Question for mets or anyone knowledgeable. Why does the NBM continue to show 12-18 inches area wide (even the ongoing 01z run)? What is this model “blending?” Serious question. https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/mdl/nbm read that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Nam is my worst case. 6" of snow + 2-3" of sleet on top is nightmare fuel. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 11 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The 700 and 850 lows track over Lake Erie. Guaranteed we will mix with that and we have to hope the precip is largely over by then. If that is indeed the track they take, I need to see rest of 00Z guidance before I lean that way, then 100% we're going over to sleet for a large part of this sub forum. You can't avoid mid level warming with 700/850 lows to Lake Erie. This is where we were at at 9:00 this morning. The 12Z guidance and 18Z guidance for the most part backed away from that, except for the CMC stuff. Let's see what the rest of the 00Z guidance has to say. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 5 minutes ago, Mo Snow said: NAM 12k has sleet all the way to Allentown? The sleet is pretty minimal north of central NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 3 minutes ago, chrisNJ said: Question for mets or anyone knowledgeable. Why does the NBM continue to show 12-18 inches area wide (even the ongoing 01z run)? What is this model “blending?” Serious question. cause it's counting the sleet as snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, MANDA said: If that is indeed the track they take, I need to see rest of 00Z guidance before I lean that way, then 100% we're going over to sleet for most of this forum. This is where we were at at 9:00 this morning. The 12Z guidance and 18Z guidance for the most part backed away from that, except for the CMC stuff. Let's see what the rest of the 00Z guidance has to say. It's the NAM of course but to avoid sleet we need those lows tracking well south of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 8 minutes ago, Mo Snow said: NAM 12k has sleet all the way to Allentown? Weatherbell's own graphics don't go as high as the output on this. 3 is the limit. Max is 6.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: It's the NAM of course but to avoid sleet we need those lows tracking well south of there. Nam is useless after 48 hrs so not worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 6 to 10 inches of snow topped with a couple inches of sleet, followed by days below freezing... sounds good to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astoriaweather Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 If the GFS holds tonight, I won't worry about the NAM until this time tomorrow. Tomer on Twitter thinks its in the process of folding. But if it doesn't fold tonight, and instead decides to fold tomorrow, etc, or never does, it will be a pretty glaring and major error for the model and raise real questions about its relevancy going forward. https://x.com/burgwx/status/2014470490593886472?s=20 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1/23 00z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 I think it's ok to accept that it can both sleet and still be a significant snowstorm, both can be true. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, Astoriaweather said: If the GFS holds tonight, I won't worry about the NAM until this time tomorrow. Tomer on Twitter thinks its in the process of folding. But if it doesn't fold tonight, and instead decides to fold tomorrow, etc, it will be a pretty glaring and major error for the model and raise real questions about its relevancy going forward. https://x.com/burgwx/status/2014470490593886472?s=20 I feel like we've been saying this for a decade 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 5 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: cause it's counting the sleet as snow Well it has it’s own sleet output parameter so not sure. I a 8 minutes ago, Prue11 said: https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/mdl/nbm read that Even more shocking. Wtf are they blending besides cocktails? I am just trying to learn. And it’s not just a sleet issue because they have a FRAM output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowguy66 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 it's too far out right now for the NAM. Relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 i’ll take the under on that qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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