Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/24 - 1/26

[eduggs]

31 minutes ago, Rjay said:

He's getting so much crap for being disappointed.  I kinda feel the way he does. I loved being on the northern fringe of this.  That was a great spot for us.  Is he being a bit excessive with it?  Sure but everyone's reactions to him are worse imo. 

I'm not disappointed yet. I'm looking forward to a major event and also holding out hope for even better trends. I don't think the current state of model output is as favorable as the clown maps would indicate. If you blend the synoptics of the Euro, UK, and CMC with the NAM thermals it starts to look uncomfortable. I also think people have short memories when it comes to the many many events where the NAM surged the warm tongue inside 48 hours and dramatically changed the forecast landscape. Heck even December 26th played out like that even though some refused to admit it. People overgeneralize and anthropomorphize things like arctic air and high pressure and think it makes us immune to synoptics. We fail to see and acknowledge obvious things like the trof axis being very far west... which historically favors the interior and New England for the best snows. Fingers crossed for everyone to get buried, but I plan to acknowledge the bad with the good.

[jm1220]

Just now, Rjay said:

Yea it's probably going to really rip for a time. 

And that should help hold the warm mid level air back. Hopefully the sleet gets here just as the precip is about to end anyway. 

[Rjay]

Just now, jm1220 said:

And that should help hold the warm mid level air back. Hopefully the sleet gets here just as the precip is about to end anyway. 

That's my hope at well.  

[SACRUS]

[MANDA]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

There’ll definitely be a zone somewhere from likely N/C Texas around Dallas to Waco, maybe Austin to the Carolinas that get hammered with ice and possibly devastating in some places. 

Went through that once.  Never again I hope.

[Snowguy66]

I haven't watched the weather channel in years and I just turned it on tonight and those guys are over the top.  

[SnoSki14]

Just now, MANDA said:

Went through that once.  Never again I hope.

At least it'll be the weekend 

[KeithB]

7 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

Anyone planing on going for a Jebwalk?

 

two

[eduggs]

9 minutes ago, Astoriaweather said:

I am old enough to vaguely remember the Blizzard of 93. And even though that storm was pretty well modeled, considering the era, I honestly don't think anyone saw a map of likely snow accumulations until the day before the storm. If you did, it was something vague like "at least six inches expected"

That was an unusual event fairly well forecasted at very long lead times. I remember seeing a graphic on CBS or NBC 6 days before the event with the entire east coast highlighted with 1-3 feet written on the screen. I've never seen anything like that since.

[MANDA]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

At least it'll be the weekend 

When I went through it it was just cold.  In this situation the cold will be extreme.  Can't imagine no heat in this.

[SACRUS]

 

1/23 00Z NAMD is updating

 

[SI Mailman]

We're either gonna get NAM'd, or pelted with ice pellets.  

[Prue11]

16 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Yea it's probably going to really rip for a time. 

What time do you think the heaviest snow will occur on LI

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

What time do you think the heaviest snow will occur on LI

Probably late morning/early afternoon 

[dWave]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Decades? The record-setting January 22-23, 2016 blizzard was just over 10 years ago. The long-duration January 31-February 4, 2021 storm that brought 17.4" to NYC was just under 5 years ago. The Post would do well to consult weather information before writing its headlines.

Well it is the Post..far from high level journalism.

That said, the NWS forecasts right now are showing 18" - 25"+ totals in and around NYC so thats getting into historic range. 

 

[Mo Snow]

Just now, Winterweatherlover said:

This is getting ridiculous honestly, this storm is being way overhyped especially for the Upper Mid Atlantic/Northeast where this kind of weather happens regularly.

Agreed but its been a few winters since a major storm. At least 5 years since 12"+ was forecast for the area. People are excited I guess

[Snowlover11]

It wouldn’t be a winter storm if the NAM doesn’t produce something nuts in the next 24 hrs lol

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, dWave said:

Well it is the Post..far from high level journalism.

That said, the NWS forecasts right now are showing 18" - 25"+ totals in and around NYC so thats getting into historic range. 

 

I guess hugging the GFS. 

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, Mo Snow said:

Agreed but its been a few winters since a major storm. At least 5 years since 12"+ was forecast for the area. People are excited I guess

Ok excited I get but overhyping it as historic/biggest storm in decades etc is a bit much. High end potential it's a MECS probably not HECS. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

hrrr

[Mo Snow]

Just now, Winterweatherlover said:

Ok excited I get but overhyping it as historic/biggest storm in decades etc is a bit much. High end potential it's a MECS probably not HECS. 

Totally agreed, its being overhyped by some (ny post lol)

[SnoSki14]

6 minutes ago, mob1 said:

My goodness, the hype on this is so unnecessary. It's not even in the top 50, let alone historic.  

Agreed the historic storm will come later. This is just the beginning 

[weatherpruf]

Well it is the Post..far from high level journalism.
That said, the NWS forecasts right now are showing 18" - 25"+ totals in and around NYC so thats getting into historic range. 
 

I didn’t see panic like this for Boxing Day which was over 30 inches or for the 19 inches a few weeks later.


.

[Prue11]

6 minutes ago, dWave said:

Well it is the Post..far from high level journalism.

That said, the NWS forecasts right now are showing 18" - 25"+ totals in and around NYC so thats getting into historic range. 

 

Where are you seeing 18-25”+ forecasted? The event is still over 48 hours away

[weatherpruf]

Agreed but its been a few winters since a major storm. At least 5 years since 12"+ was forecast for the area. People are excited I guess

More like terrified….


.

[LovintheWhiteFluff]

2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Ok excited I get but overhyping it as historic/biggest storm in decades etc is a bit much. High end potential it's a MECS probably not HECS. 

This is the best one I've seen so far. lol 

 

[Wxbear25]

NAM continues the idea of more separation between the trough over the western U.S. and the feature currently off the coast

[donsutherland1]

5 minutes ago, dWave said:

Well it is the Post..far from high level journalism.

That said, the NWS forecasts right now are showing 18" - 25"+ totals in and around NYC so thats getting into historic range. 

 

These are the NWS maps from this afternoon/evening:

[SnoSki14]

6 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Ok excited I get but overhyping it as historic/biggest storm in decades etc is a bit much. High end potential it's a MECS probably not HECS. 

To be fair the icing potential, which will cause the biggest impacts is substantial and covers a massive region. 

This storm is a very big deal for many. We've dealt with a lot worse but those south will see historic winter weather. 

[SACRUS]