1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

[Mrwolf1972]

Is what the gfs showing possibility? 

[Reb]

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

Weaker hp in the 18z GFS.  Yet somehow it manages to be south of 12z. Did it send more energy out on the first wave?

This is a trend i could get behind! 

[fountainguy97]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

Weaker hp in the 18z GFS.  Yet somehow it manages to be south of 12z. Did it send more energy out on the first wave?

much more separation. the Northern piece is hundreds of miles further east by hour 84. 

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Reb said:

OK GFS...i see you. the 2nd prong has trended south considerably.

Triples down. 

[Mrwolf1972]

Has this ever happened 2 prong system is the gfs picking up more then rest of the models it's pretty much held fast

[Mrwolf1972]

[Weatheriscool]

5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Weaker hp in the 18z GFS.  Yet somehow it manages to be south of 12z. Did it send more energy out on the first wave?

Which is right though? I would hate to be an actual forecaster with this system! 

[Carvers Gap]

I will never say anything bad about the GFS again if that comes to fruition.   My man is not giving up without a fight.

[Wurbus]

5 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said:

Has this ever happened 2 prong system is the gfs picking up more then rest of the models it's pretty much held fast

While I want to believe the GFS, I'm still very cautious. It has been doing funky stuff with that baja low since this whole thing started.

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, Weatheriscool said:

Which is right though? I would hate to be an actual forecaster with this system! 

Analysis on the iPhone is about impossible.  Looks like it sent out a good portion with the first wave which has been flatter on most models.  It stays flat.  Second wave was weake…almost had to stay flat. Hp perfectly positioned and didn’t slide in behind the second system that I can see.  Most times the energy which is held back is stronger…but not always.  Seeing it jog south is interesting.

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Wurbus said:

While I want to believe the GFS, I'm still very cautious. It has been doing funky stuff with that baja low since this whole thing started.

Wise statement.

[Vol4Life]

When looking at the Kuchera, is the 17.7 inches at TYS factoring in the 0.56 of freezing rain?  Or is the freezing rain in addition to the snow/sleet?
 

[Jed33]

Wow that would be something else say 10in of snow, a quarter inch of zr and another 10inches on top for me. That middle layer would turn it all to a frozen cement within a day or two! That would be on the ground for weeks esp in the shade!

[Reb]

8 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Triples down. 

 

[Daniel Boone]

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I will never say anything bad about the GFS again if that comes to fruition.   My man is not giving up without a fight.

Bam is having a hissy over it on X. Popped his , as he said, 30 second drawn map up and boasted about it. He has the ohoo River area being Snow bullseye. He may be right but I hope he's not.

[Carvers Gap]

All I can do for the GFS is just cheer it on.  It is kind of like that kid(who has no business at the front) that manages to hang with the top milers for three laps.  And then you are like, “Does he have one more lap in him?”  Maybe.  I hope.  Sit and kick, baby!

[Mrwolf1972]

Aigfs shows valley above freezing for 2 hrs but rest time below 32.

[GBOVolz]

It’s getting hard to ignore the GFS even though it’s the GFS.


.

[Carvers Gap]

3 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Bam is having a hissy over it on X. Popped his , as he said, 30 second drawn map up and boasted about it. He has the ohoo River area being Snow bullseye. He may be right but I hope he's not.

The 18z GFS said, “Bam the torpedoes.  Full speed ahead!!!”

[Mrwolf1972]

Just now, Mrwolf1972 said:

Aigfs shows valley above freezing for 2 hrs but rest time below 32.

I think as the first LP re forms off coast we might rise above but quickly drop before the second prong. 

[Mrwolf1972]

Would be nice if 18z euro throws a bone. 

[Vol4Life]

Does the HP need to be a little stronger and press a little further south to keep this primarily snow?

[WishingForWarmWeather]

8 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said:

Would be nice if 18z euro throws a bone. 

When does this initialize?

[tnweathernut]

2 minutes ago, Vol4Life said:

Does the HP need to be a little stronger and press a little further south to keep this primarily snow?

We really need the northern stream and southern stream to stay more separated than phases way out west of us.

[John1122]

28 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I will never say anything bad about the GFS again if that comes to fruition.   My man is not giving up without a fight.

Came here to say this. The Euro is dead to me. 

[Reb]

10 minutes ago, WishingForWarmWeather said:

When does this initialize?

Should be around 6:15pm I believe but 12z was delayed so who knows.

[Mrwolf1972]

Gefs stays below freezing in valley pretty much whole time

[jaxjagman]

Quite of bit of spead even from the EPS

[Holston_River_Rambler]

With regards to the GFS, it looks to me like the shortwave that was phasing just kicked out in front of it so quick, it helps to suppress heights to the east

There is still a small shortwave diving down through Oregon and CA that phase with the Baja low, but the larger piece stays separate. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

There are still some height rises in front, but nothing like rises you'd get with a full triple phase.

Could be one to something or ON something.