1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Just now, John1122 said:

I never imagined getting 24 inches of snow modeled and being on the low end of accumulation in the area. 

Speaking of Mammoth...

the hurricane hunters flight planned mentioned........

 

[John1122]

The GFS entirely avoided freezing rain in Chattanooga. They did get half a foot of sleet with their snow. 

[nrgjeff]

Those few hours of 700 mb and 850 mb at/above freezing, but only by a degree or so, spells sleet not freezing rain. Partial thickness charts also show the shenanigans. Fine line between staying sleet, and a half inch of freezing rain. 

I wonder how amped the NAM will be when it comes in range. Prolly Quebec us. Let's hope the Euro trends colder for snow.

[Matthew70]

No way

[nrgjeff]

Easy to post clickbait out of market. They'd be held accountable in market.

Though speaking of model consistency, there was a storm a long time ago modeled a week out.. Even with those much less advanced weather models. March 1993. Let's NOT do that again though, and hell no to the ice version!

[Weatheriscool]

2 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

No way

This system would be bad enough if it were going to melt in a couple days but to be around the better part of next week is really really going to be a issue; wonder how much rock salt TDOT has lol? 

[John1122]

This storm just keeps reminding me of Feb 2nd 1996. It even had that area of extra heavy snow in the central valley of East Tennessee, and was a massive sleet event in Chattanooga. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Looks like the GEFS upped .qpf, but strengthened the HP and kept 850 temps relatively similar:

 

Actually having zoomed in, there is a bit of a northward tick with 850s:

[ShawnEastTN]

Easy to post clickbait out of market. They'd be held accountable in market.
Though speaking of model consistency, there was a storm a long time ago modeled a week out.. Even with those much less advanced weather models. March 1993. Let's NOT do that again though, and hell no to the ice version!

That's what I've been reminding myself that even if this ends up with these crazy totals of snow, we don't have the winds that came with 93. That's at least a consolation. I remember hearing that wind roar in the middle of the night during the 93 storm it was like a hurricane.

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[Matthew70]

1 minute ago, Weatheriscool said:

This system would be bad enough if it were going to melt in a couple days but to be around the better part of next week is really really going to be a issue; wonder how much rock salt TDOT has lol? 

Honestly, I would not be surprised if they had to bring in more

[Mrwolf1972]

The amounts did go up between 12z and 18z gefs 

[Weatheriscool]

1 minute ago, Matthew70 said:

Honestly, I would not be surprised if they had to bring in more

This is just insanity, I keep thinking one of us on here prayed way too hard for snow!

[Matthew70]

I will be happy with half of that. I don’t believe that will get over a foot..  

[John1122]

The GEFS is going to mirror the qpf of the op, but is a little warmer and likely has more mixing issues on some of the members.  

[John1122]

I take that back about the GEFS, it's going to probably approach a 10 inch snow depth down to the Georgia line. Not sure if it's blending sleet in or not though. 

[TellicoWx]

This is what has me the most worried...major power failure across the south and then this behind it. Wind chill values 18z GFS.

[fountainguy97]

It's pretty apparent a lot of us will mix. I don't think it'll be as severe as the CMC but I highly doubt we see the gfs slider as a final result. The energy flying around from the Baja will "kink" the flow enough to give us a NE tilt vs the flat look. Gfs has been all over the place and its ensemble doesn't match it very well. 

[Carvers Gap]

3 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

This is what has me the most worried...major power failure across the south and then this behind it. Wind chill values 18z GFS.

Was just coming to comment on this.  Those are all-time record lows on that map..  We rarely ever see that extreme on modeling, and have seen -10s occur about once a decade...mid 80s, early mid90s, mid-late 2010s.....I think we would have to have deep snowpack to get there.  But the overall setup on modeling (HL and EPO block) would support very cold temps if we get snow on the ground.  While the GFS run is over cooked, its low temps do have some support across modeling.  I cannot imagine those temps w/ the power out or no alternate source of heat.

[Daniel Boone]

I see Reynolds on WJHL is apparently showing the 12Z GFS forecasted Totals.

[BKinLenoirCity]

I’ve been trying to keep up with the info here on the models. I live right around the 40/75 split…can someone give a best guess on what we will see? Weather channel lowered our snow to 3-5 inches. While that would be great, I was anticipating more out of this system. Can anybody simplify what is really expected? And what do we need to increase our snow forecast for this storm? Thanks!


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

Don't have a whole lot of frames yet, but it looks like Euro AIFS has ticked back north a bit. 

[Scottie16]

I’ve been trying to keep up with the info here on the models. I live right around the 40/75 split…can someone give a best guess on what we will see? Weather channel lowered our snow to 3-5 inches. While that would be great, I was anticipating more out of this system. Can anybody simplify what is really expected? And what do we need to increase our snow forecast for this storm? Thanks!


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Nobody knows what the exact totals will be. The max is a lot of snow and the minimum is an ice storm.

Weather channel uses the NBM along with their own recipe for the apps. It’s not to be trusted.

We need it to trend a tick or two further south. Right now we’re in a flux between Short range and Long range models. Tomorrow night we will have the best idea on what will occur. IMO.


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[John1122]

AI Euro was definitely north with more mixing issues. 

[Scottie16]

Don't have a whole lot of frames yet, but it looks like Euro AIFS has ticked back north a bit. 

It’s colder at 66.


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

best image I have now, but the 850s have gone north by a county or so:

[Mrwolf1972]

It warms to 30 for a high in valley then 2 hrs later quickly drops to 20s on aifs euro

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Easier to see the LP trying to sneak up Highway 411 here:

18z------------------------------------------------------------->                  12z

 

 

850s:

[John1122]

It runs a tongue of mixing issues up the edge of the Apps, and into southern valley. 

[Math/Met]

2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Easier to see the LP trying to sneak up Highway 411 here:

18z------------------------------------------------------------->                  12z

 

 

850s:

Definitely not what I wanted to see. Hopefully we can trend back the other way with time, but we've definitely seen this play out like that several times.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Tomer Burg now has made a snow anxiety index (sarcasm on my part) available. This is a gif of the 12z EPS run

 

Here is his explanation of what it is: