1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

[Holston_River_Rambler]

6z continues its tick south:

[TellicoWx]

1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

6z continues its tick south:

Big test for it

[Math/Met]

After a very quick glance, looks like the AIFS took another step in the right direction.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

6z normal Euro still dropping a 1054 hp south and it is a tick further south than 0z 

[Save the itchy algae!]

6z normal Euro still dropping a 1054 hp south and it is a tick further south than 0z 

If it’s stopped it’s northward jog already then we’re in business. 1.5 more days until it’s largely locked in.


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

6z Euro surface pressure trend:

If we just end up with that little lp blob over the Snokies turning into a leeside low...... 

[*Flash*]

15 minutes ago, Scottie16 said:

They hate when we are right.


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Gotcha. I'm just curious what the south did to hurt them, lol.

[Reb]

OP looks real nice. What could go wrong? 

 

[Mrwolf1972]

Euro looking alot like the gfs

[Holston_River_Rambler]

6z Euro is a tick south from 0z, still some mixing issues for southern valley though

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Kuchera:

[Mrwolf1972]

Mixing after almost a foot of snow I'll take. Edit after almost 20 inches 

[ChattZ]

Nothing like a warm nose

[fountainguy97]

6 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said:

Mixing after almost a foot of snow I'll take. Edit after almost 20 inches 

[Weatheriscool]

9 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Kuchera:

That would create so much infrastructure issues well into the following week. I am sure that tems are well below zero over that snowpack as well 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Overnight WPC probabilities:

 

Pertinent parts of the overnight WPC disco:

Model guidance generally remains in good agreement with the large scale pattern. All model guidance shows arctic air making it down to the Gulf and East Coasts, which will clash with southern stream energy to produce a high impact winter storm across the southern tier. However, some model differences still exist with the details of both the southern and northern stream energy. These details will impact things such as the timing, snow/ice line, and the northern gradient of the snowfall. While these details will need to be worked out over the coming days, it seems almost certain that a significant winter storm will occur.

The 12z/18z GFS runs from yesterday were extreme outliers with a much slower and even cutoff southern stream energy near CA. The 00z GFS has since come into better agreement with the other models, but given it appears to just be catching on to things, we still prefer to only give it a little weight in this forecast. Otherwise taking a blend of the ECMWF/CMC/UKMET, the ECENS/GEFS and the AI model suite, seemingly results in a pretty good middle ground forecast at this point and is reflected in the WPC QPF forecast.

 

On the southern side of this system significant freezing rain is expected, likely resulting in dangerous travel conditions and power outages. Given the arctic airmass in place, temperatures will likely only be in the teens and 20s where freezing rain is occurring, which will only act to increase travel impacts. The exact swath of ice will a bit uncertain until we get closer to the event...but currently the highest probabilities stretch from portions of central TX into the lower MS Valley and into portions of SC/NC.

To the north of this icing threat will be a swath of significant snowfall stretching from OK into the TN Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Again, we will need to fine tune the northern and southern gradients of this snow, and also the exact magnitudes...but a rather wide swath of significant snowfall is likely. Temperatures in the teens and 20s will increase travel impacts from this snow and also result in snow ratios likely higher than climatology. This should result in higher snowfall totals than applying a simple 10-1 ratio to QPF would give you...especially on the northern half of the snowfall axis.

[fountainguy97]

The 06z UK has the Baja energy hanging back a little more than 00z. Which is great!
 

It's one of the northern models currently. Only goes out to hr 66 at 06z

[Wurbus]

Just woke up to those monster 6z runs.....insane! Not sure if anyone has mentioned GEFS yet, but looks like most of the forum has a mean of 10-12" 5 days out!

[Carvers Gap]

The full run of the 6z GFS is just insanity - Mammoth like.  I am guessing there is some feedback in that.  The 6z AI Euro and 6z Euro were strong runs.  0z UKMET  is the furthest north.  Ensembles generally fit deterministic runs.  6z ICON if you want something to worry about.

[Mrwolf1972]

38 minutes ago, ChattZ said:

Nothing like a warm nose

That's last night run

[Mrwolf1972]

6z gefs

 

[Mrwolf1972]

NWB

[jaxjagman]

[John1122]

I feel like this is a trap. I'm having 2017 ptsd from when the Euro showed 30 inches imby 48 hours out, and I ended up with two inches. 

[jaxjagman]

The Euro would be some nice ratios with the temps in the mid teens basically

[TellicoWx]

Both AI models now have a very short window of mixing issues (if any). 

[jaxjagman]

Even with temps around 20F,ratios would be 15-20:1

[Carvers Gap]

You know the thing that is concerning for me is that on the 6z GFS run...we barely get above freezing at TRI from Saturday to the end of the run.  The 0z Euro (can't use the 6z as it only goes out to 144) doesn't bring us above freezing until Feb 2, and has a very severe cold snap on the 30th.  Maybe the real story(other than snow) is the duration and severity of the cold which could accompany this.  If we get heavy snow or ice, that could be significant problem in combination w/ cold which follows.  The GFS and GEM-para also both have another pretty severe cold snap around the 30th.  The 0z EPS has a 10day mean from Jan 24th to Feb 3 which is 10-15 degrees BN...incredible or an ensemble to have that.

[Carvers Gap]

15 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I feel like this is a trap. I'm having 2017 ptsd from when the Euro showed 30 inches imby 48 hours out, and I ended up with two inches. 

I don't like that we have had feedback all over North America this winter which turned out to be false.  That 6z GFS run almost had to have been.  OTH, Juneau, Alaska, did get hammered.  Mammoth got hammered, but really...kind of normal for them to have big storms like that.  Russia got hammered.  Strong amplifications and big storms kind of seem to be slightly more prevalent in the NH this winter???  Also, Italy's Alps got hammered after weeks of news stories saying they wouldn't have snow for the winter - huge snows at the end of December.  I hope we get in on the action on some level...maybe not 2-3" of ice.

For me, I think we need to see cold high pressure maintain its presence along w/ the STJ.  Get those cooking, and see where it goes....

[GBOVolz]

Man, BamWx is really getting defensive on X. It's like they want us to ask, “what snow?”

They are so triggered that an hour ago they used the CMC as their lead mod to prove to their viewers that the system is trending north.


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