January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

It might manage to get a storm with the next NS at hour 140 and beyond but either way its not what we want.

Doesn't look like it

[clskinsfan]

GFS firing up the second wave now. 

[csnavywx]

Short range errors on the southern stream cutoff are still pretty damn high. Still have a full day until that thing cuts off under the ridge, so we may not be rid of trends related to it until that occurs (tomorrow's 12Z runs, in other words).

[IUsedToHateCold]

Just now, LP08 said:

To give an idea to those not watching the models.  20 in charlotte NC, 10 or so in richmond.  Basically a whiff north of DC.

I lived in Charlotte for years - not a snowtown. Any run giving them that much snow should be tossed unless it's repeated and supported by the other models. TBH, I find it hard to believe that a suppressed solution is actually that strong. Usually suppressed solutions are *weaker* 

This is probably just the GFS being the GooFus. 

That said, that much snow for them would be absolutely crippling. 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

GFS firing up the second wave now. 

Trust me, it doesn't work out

[mob1]

Energy in the SW held back a bit more and confluence to our north is a lot stronger. 

[87storms]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

It might manage to get a storm with the next NS at hour 140 and beyond but either way its not what we want.

Could still end up what we want. We’re just not used to having a southern stream lol.

[clskinsfan]

OK. It is pretty much a disaster run.

[SnowenOutThere]

CMC will be fine

[Shad]

CMC does look a bit suppressed at 96

[LeesburgWx]

Really need CMC and Euro to hold now after GFS. Icon lead the way?

[DDweatherman]

Canadian definitely slower to push the energy out a bit, but looks like UKMET and Euro out to 96. Lots of energy helping to pull it eastward into the phase. 

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

CMC will be fine

Probably, but just flipping precip back and forth at 96 it's a 100mi jump south at least

[TSSN+]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

CMC will be fine

Love that backside energy 

[Solution Man]

Don’t worry about that model (GFS) right now, it’s Tuesday and doing the lost thing as usual. It will warm up a game time.

[DDweatherman]

All we're asking for today is holds people, that and this god forsaken s/w to come out of the effin hole out there. 

[stormtracker]

4 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Energy in the SW held back a bit more and confluence to our north is a lot stronger. 

Wait...Brooklyn??

[TSSN+]

CMC going to be a beat down 

 

[stormtracker]

CMC is about to lay it down

[stormtracker]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

CMC going to be a beat down 

 

NINJA'D

[Scraff]

CMC beat down perhaps? 
 

ETA: Double Ninja’d 

[LeesburgWx]

Thanks God on the GGem. So many, "it's south" posts and then it's a beatdown

[DDweatherman]

I think what we're seeing with CMC is similar to Euro. A little more hold in the energy provides the boom solutions, whereas too much of a good thing in that regard can render a GFS outcome. No one knows what will actually happen here, but the GFS has been a pretty bad model for quite some time. 

[stormtracker]

GGEM destroys us

[clskinsfan]

Pummeled

[DDweatherman]

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

Thanks God on the GGem. So many, "it's south" posts and then it's a beatdown

People don't realize south is a correlation to timing somewhat in this case. Slower can be souther. But if you roll forward the frames, it gets to a similar spot. 

[stormtracker]

Uncanny how it looks like the....ICON.  Like surface placement and everything

[rjvanals]

11 hours ago, rjvanals said:

Way too much early celebrating around here. We have 120 hrs for things to go wrong and every 6 hours we go from “don’t worry it’s the GFS” to the GFS is amazing

It's the GFS. Toggle through the last 4 runs to find out how "consistent" it has been before freaking out 

[LeesburgWx]

Not going to lie, GGEM seems to have had pretty steady of a beatdown for us for a few days now

[87storms]

Canadian said I will give you a digital hecs and you will like it.