January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[DDweatherman]

We’re going to need more than that difference wise downstream to have the implications we need. It’s a positive; but it’s not much yet. 
 

I like the height improvement and tpv more than the s/w energy changes early

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

We’re going to need more than that difference wise downstream to have the implications we need. It’s a positive; but it’s not much yet. 
 

I like the height improvement and tpv more than the s/w energy changes esrly

Hey any step is a good one with how stubborn it's been

[stormtracker]

Regardless of outcome, seems to be positive baby steps so far

[TSSN+]

It’s getting there 

[stormtracker]

Yeah, out west, much more pronounced different with s/w location..it's further east than 18z

[Terpeast]

Sw position trending east over last 3-4 runs

[stormtracker]

I'm at 114...looks better surface wise too

[stormtracker]

Baja sw coming out

[mitchnick]

Seems a touch slower. That might be our key to a further north trajectory. 

[Terpeast]

102, almost an open wave

[stormtracker]

northern extent of precip is....more norther

[bncho]

ok i'm at 108 but the precip shield seems to be 150 miles north of 18z

[TSSN+]

If you look at gfs vs euro at 102 they aren’t far off 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Massive changes at 120 vs 18z

[stormtracker]

[bncho]

this is what i'm seeing right now,

[SnowenOutThere]

I’ve decided to be a good roommate and retire from my laptop for the night so everyone else can bring us home for the gfs! 

[Solution Man]

Welcome to the party gfs

[87storms]

This run might make me more optimistic.

[stormtracker]

seems like it's headed toward more of a Euro solution?  Can't be sure yet...but it'll be more norther for sure

[Terpeast]

TT is crashing on me, so many people on it now. It must be good!

[nj2va]

GFS another step in the caving direction, regardless of the end solution.

[Chris78]

Big changes. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, stormtracker said:

seems like it's headed toward more of a Euro solution?  Can't be sure yet...but it'll be more norther for sure

I’m stuck on mobile pivitolweather but I think it’ll be more akin to the Icon solution than a full cave to Euro. Just need to see now how the NS interacts once the SW ejects 

[bncho]

mod-heavy snow enters the region hr 120

[stormtracker]

some light snow into the area at 120...just gotta see if it can make more progress to us for the heavies

[LeesburgWx]

Just now, Chris78 said:

Big changes. 

Wow, that is huge for only 6 hours. LFG. Night and day with the Sw placement there

[psuhoffman]

Regardless of what the goofus says or any solution for one particular run, this is by far the best pattern we’ve seen since this god forsaken snow drought began in 2017. It looks very similar to past patterns that lead to some epic periods. This isn’t hyperbole, the analogs are lit up with our best snow periods of the last 30 years!  It’s time to cash in. And I don’t mean eke out 4 or 5”. Yes I realize that could happen and no I’m not kicking a 4” snow out of bed. But we’ve had 9 years of epic suck. We’re due for a real run. And this pattern could do it. Let’s end this shit right now!  Cash in all our “we’re due index” chips and put them on the damn table. It’s time. 

[Amped]

Gfs ejects that little Baja bastard!!! Its on.

[stormtracker]

Just now, bncho said:

mod-heavy snow enters the region hr 120

huh?  It's light