January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[gman]

Chris Justus is doubling down on his latest video, now calling for over an inch of ice in Greenville and thunder ice late in the day. 

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1AFzsPNBeF/

[AirNelson39]

Chris Justus is doubling down on his latest video, now calling for over an inch of ice in Greenville and thunder ice late in the day. 
https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1AFzsPNBeF/

I take everything he says with a grain of salt. Heck he posts screenshots of snow maps 7 days out.

[DTP]

6 minutes ago, btownheel said:

NAM’s being decommissioned for a reason, which likely also means it hasn’t been getting resources for a bit.

I’m with you. RGEM and HRRR. NAM can be good with thermals but has lost its edge and LOL at ever posting RAP.


.

18z NAM from yesterday pretty much matches what is on radar right now fwiw

It was the only model showing the showery nature of the precip this early in wedge areas- if it verifies- precip in the upstate will fill in as sleet within the next couple hours

[btownheel]

Just going to throw this out there. Feel free to roast if I’m wrong. But obs. have been coming in colder/wetter since minute 1 with this system and you can see short range correcting wetter in short range real-time but then trying to be stubborn with drier later in their runs (I.e. less reliable).

IMO, talking about “precip minimums” and “switching to rain” for anyone here in favored CAD regions is simple wishcasting. We’re gonna get well over an inch of QPF and in CAD climo regions not a drop of it comes anything other than frozen. Just look at setup. Climo matters, folks. Also think north of 40 and NW of 85 are 80-90% sleet which will help a lot. Lower central NC/midland SC….unfortunately not the case.


.

[DTP]

4 minutes ago, btownheel said:

The move away from boiling water reactors to Gen IV thorium reactors also has a ton of potential (and offers solutions for what to do with current waste) but needs huge government subsidy on front end to make it viable for utilities.


.

I do think SMRs are the future going forward- less cost, faster completion 

As a builder and developer myself, that is the best combination you could hope for

[DTP]

Noticed that there has not been much thunderstorm activity near the GC on this storm so far- usually that is a big factor in moisture transport

[BooneWX]

13 minutes ago, btownheel said:

Just going to throw this out there. Feel free to roast if I’m wrong. But obs. have been coming in colder/wetter since minute 1 with this system and you can see short range correcting wetter in short range real-time but then trying to be stubborn with drier later in their runs (I.e. less reliable).

IMO, talking about “precip minimums” and “switching to rain” for anyone here in favored CAD regions is simple wishcasting. We’re gonna get well over an inch of QPF and in CAD climo regions not a drop of it comes anything other than frozen. Just look at setup. Climo matters, folks. Also think north of 40 and NW of 85 are 80-90% sleet which will help a lot. Lower central NC/midland SC….unfortunately not the case.


.

I mean I have seen already making it to the ground with a 30/13 reading. It shouldn’t be making it to the ground but it is. Doesn’t make me hopeful for drier results. 

[BooneWX]

Since we’re on the conversation of power, keep in mind there’s two distinct outage waves in an ice event:

1. The event itself as totals get heavy for obvious reasons

2. Usually, the next part comes as you think you’re out of the woods. When the lines start shedding weight (I.e. if we get above freezing tomorrow night or Monday), that weight gets released and it causes them to bounce and snap back to form like rubber bands. When the lines bounce and contact each other, it’ll cause an outage then as well.

[Brick Tamland]

NAM still with mostly sleet in NC and a line of freezing rain that turns to rain.

[WNC_Fort]

4 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Since we’re on the conversation of power, keep in mind there’s two distinct outage waves in an ice event:

1. The event itself as totals get heavy for obvious reasons

2. Usually, the next part comes as you think you’re out of the woods. When the lines start shedding weight (I.e. if we get above freezing tomorrow night or Monday), that weight gets released and it causes them to bounce and snap back to form like rubber bands. When the lines bounce and contact each other, it’ll cause an outage then as well.

How well equipped do you think Duke is to deal with a widespread ice-related outage. Especially with the cold air expected after? Think they can realistically get places back online fairly quickly? 

[Brick Tamland]

[ADB83]

2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

NAM still with mostly sleet in NC and a line of freezing rain that turns to rain.

I do think this is gonna end up doing better with the sleet versus freezing rain than the HRRR. 

[WNC_Fort]

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

That’s quite a run for freezing rain in Mississippi up through Kentucky. Much lower totals in parts of the Carolinas. 

[DTP]

1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

Since we’re on the conversation of power, keep in mind there’s two distinct outage waves in an ice event:

1. The event itself as totals get heavy for obvious reasons

2. Usually, the next part comes as you think you’re out of the woods. When the lines start shedding weight (I.e. if we get above freezing tomorrow night or Monday), that weight gets released and it causes them to bounce and snap back to form like rubber bands. When the lines bounce and contact each other, it’ll cause an outage then as well.

This would be insanely expensive at this point, but I always wondered why they never put ice breaks along the runs for this very reason....similar to what you would see on a roof

This way you would have 20' chunks shedding off v 100'

It would be hard to spool a roll of HT with them already attached, so it would be a retrofit (also expensive and time-consuming)....I probably just answered my own question with that in mind lol

[Maggie Valley Steve]

12 minutes ago, DTP said:

Noticed that there has not been much thunderstorm activity near the GC on this storm so far- usually that is a big factor in moisture transport

There have been Severe Thunderstorm Warnings off the Upper Texas Gulf Coast and SW Louisiana this afternoon.

[Brick Tamland]

HRRR looks like it has more freezing rain compared to the NAM.

[gman]

Seems to be a squall line or low pressure developing off the coast of Florida, just east of Jacksonville and Brunswick, Ga. Does anyone else see that and does it mean anything as it relates to our storm?

[WestCentrlVA]

Light snow has started here in Rocky Mount Virginia temp 19 Dp -6. Snowboard is out and ready to measure.  

[Brick Tamland]

Just a little difference with the NAM, 3K NAM and HRRR.

 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

NAM versus real conditions [from WxSammy]

[DTP]

11 minutes ago, Maggie Valley Steve said:

There have been Severe Thunderstorm Warnings off the Upper Texas Gulf Coast and SW Louisiana this afternoon.

Guess I was mistaken- it will be a factor if that is the case- it would, however, help knock down upstream ZR totals, which is what everyone here is hoping for

[Snow haven]

7 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Just a little difference with the NAM, 3K NAM and HRRR.

 

That is quite a difference in amounts!!

[DTP]

26 minutes ago, WNC_Fort said:

How well equipped do you think Duke is to deal with a widespread ice-related outage. Especially with the cold air expected after? Think they can realistically get places back online fairly quickly? 

Pretty well-equipped- they pull in a lot of big national electrical subs most of the time for any type of large-scale line work- Williams, etc....I have seen a lot of different subs doing work for Duke when I pull electrical infrastructure in on my build sites

 

The real problem will be not being able to pull crews from neighboring states- they also have their hands full with the same storm

[neatlburbwthrguy]

Any sleet maps for north Georgia? 

[PackGrad05]

Mike Maze latest Facebook post saying less ice, melting sunday night...

Lots of people commenting and really taking it the wrong way (assuming it'll be nothing now)

[AirNelson39]

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1MWrCnwkJE/?mibextid=wwXIfr

Mike maze saying less ice, melting sunday


.

The public is pissed in the comments. The models really screwed everyone, especially the meteorologist

[Brick Tamland]

RAP zr map. But it doesn't have precip here in Wake until 8 hours from now and there is report of sleet in Cary now. 

[Regan]

14 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Mike Maze latest Facebook post saying less ice, melting sunday night...

Lots of people commenting and really taking it the wrong way (assuming it'll be nothing now)

Because they don’t get it. If he’s sayin it’ll all melt, other mets are saying no way. Plus, we don’t know. Maze might should say “may” or there “may be melting”. Words matter. Gotta be careful with the public. These Facebook posts from him have been questionable about his delivery. There’s a vast amount of differing info out there right now between mets in close proximity from one another via in NC and even covering the same cities. It’s wild. 

[gman]

WYFF is interrupting regular programming and is on now. Chris Justus is saying the late arrival of the moisture means much less sleet and much more freezing rain. I pray he is wrong. 

[Regan]

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

RAP zr map. But it doesn't have precip here in Wake until 8 hours from now and there is report of sleet in Cary now. 

Sleet here in Raleigh near angus barn