January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[wncsnow]

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

What’s crazy is how much slower this system is. It’s Thursday morning and a couple days ago we were thinking Friday night start time. Now it’s looking like it could be early Sunday morning? I don’t see much before 06z 

It turned from overruning to an amped miller B.

[Regan]

1 minute ago, HKY_WX said:

Yeah i've thought that for a few days. However if thermals at 850mb are 10C, then it could theoretically be correct. I have seen sleet before where the warm nose is much higher (think 700ish mbs). If the warm nose is only a few thousand feet off the sfc (850mb - 900mb), then the rain doesn't have time to refreeze before it gets to the sfc. 

He was also in the same thread talkin about not seeing a strong chance for vast dry slotting. He seem to think it’s wet wet. 

[CaryWx]

5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

If this “busts” for the Carolina’s from an ice perspective the Mets who hyped this are going to have to have a reckoning. The snow idea is gone but this is an example where withholding anything but saying “potential for significant winter weather” would save a lot of egg on faces if this doesn’t pan out, which is a distinct possibility right now. 

Waiting on better locked in hires stuff to assist forecasting where all this sets up and for how long for precip types..  Really tough to make those calls attm.  

[Blue Ridge]

3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

If this “busts” for the Carolina’s from an ice perspective the Mets who hyped this are going to have to have a reckoning. The snow idea is gone but this is an example where withholding anything but saying “potential for significant winter weather” would save a lot of egg on faces if this doesn’t pan out, which is a distinct possibility right now. 

Double edged sword, IMO. "Potential for significant winter weather" likely does not move the public needle enough in the event a devastating, 2002-esque ice storm does come to pass. 

I do agree that anyone with an iota of Carolinas forecasting experience should know better than to make p-type specific projections beyond three days lol

 

[BooneWX]

Precip always always always arrives early 

[Silver Meteor]

1 hour ago, Brick Tamland said:

That's all they do now, go with the Euro verbatim and call it their in house model.

0.51" freezing rain for Greenville, NC ??? PASS THE VAPORS! I thought we'd be saved by our proximity to the coast. 

[DTP]

9 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Would probably save a lot of time and energy if I just read the NWS forecast discussions and only start looking at the models if they are talking about a winter storm 3 days out. I just can't get over the Euro showing 15 inches of snow here Tuesday and then by Wednesday it was all freezing rain. 

Think my new rule will be 72 hrs or less after this- I did more research into the math/assumptions/calculations behind the Euro and GFS yesterday; overall I feel that most of the variables are satisfied appropriately, and the overall construction of both is very robust- I would feel confident in receiving accurate information from them (all things being equal) when they receive the correct data. 

However, that is also the biggest flaw outside of 72- really not their fault tbh (the calculations are correct and the assumptions are historically realistic)....problem is the with the data, and will continue to be.  The only error they make is in making long term prediction off of spotty and/or hypothetical downstream data. Classic inference/extrapolation fallacy, which makes a robust model really thin past a certain point of time.  If you think of it like normal distribution- you are using data from the tails to forecast the mean when you go out past 72 hours or so

It is backassward, but not intentionally....you gotta have the right tool for the job Beavis

 

 

[HKY_WX]

7 minutes ago, Regan said:

He was also in the same thread talkin about not seeing a strong chance for vast dry slotting. He seem to think it’s wet wet. 

We could get dry slotted and will likely still get over an inch of precip. There will be a dry slot over the coast due to the SLP location being so close to the coastline. 

[HKY_WX]

Something to note, the radar is not going to look like it will over the northeast (with that beautiful sheet of snow/banding/etc). We are getting "rain" for all intensive purposes. It will be sleet/ZR, but we will be in the warm sector of the storm and it will be squally/showery/etc. Once you get above a couple thousand feet, it will be over 40 degrees.

 

[AirNelson39]

Your wording sounds a lot like my public forecasts, to this point. The problem with the social media click-baiters and fear-mongers is there is never any accountability. People just share their bologna and move on. 

The general public also lumps you guys with the clown Facebook pages sharing the biggest snow maps from every model run 7 days out. There are so many “weather” pages it’s not even funny and they all take away from the real guys trying to do their best with what they have.

[DTP]

27 minutes ago, Blacksburg Coach said:

Not sure how to fix it, more education I guess. Getting people to understand the difference between possible and probable.

Agreed- however, we live in America- I believe the concept of possible v probable for most people has become buried in delusion and pot gummies lol

[eyewall]

16 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Yeah i've thought that for a few days. However if thermals at 850mb are 10C, then it could theoretically be correct. I have seen sleet before where the warm nose is much higher (think 700ish mbs). If the warm nose is only a few thousand feet off the sfc (850mb - 900mb), then the rain doesn't have time to refreeze before it gets to the sfc. This is why you can have ZR with sfc temps in the teens.  

Yep in vermont I have seen ZR at 12F 

[Tony Sisk]

17 minutes ago, gman said:

We need to remember that the weather folks are going with information they have at the moment. Bottom line, there is the good chance this could be a bad ice storm. They cannot ignore that fact at all. I would rather they overplay a storm than underplay it. It is like buying a generator last year. I hope I spent $800 and never had to use it again. The same with this storm. I hope I am prepared just in case. The best case scenario being, the hype was way overdone. People just need to go with the flow. Life is short people, enjoy the moment. 

Agree!  I really want to be careful in how I say this...because I do not want to sound condescending. I do not know what has happened in the weather world. And I do not mean the meteorologist....I mean the models. The models just are not reliable anymore. The Science World for Weather...like US National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC need to figure this out. How can the models be this wrong. Now for the Forecasters via TV. They are just doing the best they can based on what the models are telling them. And I am positive that after a storm like Helene....they just want to take every potential threat seriously. The guys at GSP NWS are the best in the business. No one is immune to unpredictable weather. Truth is, only ONE knows...and that is our Creator! My fear is, people will draw cold to forecast and become that "yea right" person. And I get it. I guess I'm saying, show some grace to forecasters. Yes, there are some that get dramatic for hits, and will go all out and the worst/best case scenario. Learn who those people are. Otherwise, just be as prepared as you possibly can for weather related problems. As the case for this weekend, it appears to be a total "letdown" from the first expectations. But trust God! We all want what is best for each other. If it gets bad, check on your neighbors!

[Blacksburg Coach]

2 minutes ago, AirNelson39 said:

The general public also lumps you guys with the clown Facebook pages sharing the biggest snow maps from every model run 7 days out. There are so many “weather” pages it’s not even funny and they all take away from the real guys trying to do their best with what they have.

I think it also forces the real guys to be more conservative in forecasting to avoid the alarmist reputation.  

[Buddy1987]

Just now, eyewall said:

Yep in vermont I have seen ZR at 12F 

Me too but in CT. It was absolutely crippling. Believe it was 98 when the pics coming out of Canada had major substations bent and twisted all over. It was incredible.

[NorthHillsWx]

On 1/21/2026 at 6:10 AM, NorthHillsWx said:

We’re 3 days out so my initial forecast calls:

Triangle- <1” SN, 2-3” IP, 25-.30” ZR

Triad- 1” SN, 3-4” IP, .10-.25 ZR

Foothills- 1-3” SN, 4-5” IP, TR-0.10” ZR

Charlotte- TR-1/2” SN, 2-3” IP, .25-.30” ZR

Upstate- TR SN, 2-3” IP, .25-.40” ZR

ATL- TR-1/2” IP, 0.25-0.40” ZR (cold rain to finish) 

NC coastal plain- TR-1/2” SN, TR-2” IP, .25-.75” ZR Could see some isolated heavier amounts to 1” ZR if temps stay in 20’s). Switches to rain at coast and inland by a county or two limiting accumulation in those areas.

SC low country-Midlands-NC Sandhills- TR-2” IP (more north and west), .25-1” ZR possibly a few higher totals in Sandhills to NW of Columbia. Switches to rain after light icing along the coast.
 

Think worst ice runs from Greenville NC to Fayetteville to newberry SC to Greenwood SC and a county on either side of that line as first guess. Could extend further into GA as well especially Athens to Gainesville 

Praying a lot in NC and upstate get a sleet bomb 

Updates after 24 hours:

Triangle: TR of snow, only around 1” sleet, .25-.30” ZR (going with less QPF than we thought yesterday and warmer profiles) 

Triad- not much change but bringing IP down to 1-3” because less QPF

Foothills- reducing SN to TR-1”, IP 2-4”, 0.10-0.30” ZR more south. Thinking more ZR due to warmer profiles. Still thinking 0.10-0.25” ZR

Charlotte- TR SN, 1-2” IP, 0.25-0.30” ZR. Pretty much untouched but less QPF 

NC Coastal Plain- significantly less ice east of 95. Stripe of 0.25-0.5” between there and Raleigh. High end is lesser bc less QPF and warmer profiles

Upstate- almost no changes. Maybe bring IP down to 1-3” because less QPF

SC low country-Midlands-NC Sandhills- this is where biggest changes are. IP MAYBE up to 1/2” north. Tr-0.25” ZR for midlands but Sandhills could see up to 0.5” ZR. This area has bust potential to be much less because the entire area could switch to rain after way less QPF below freezing 

ATL- big changes here too. 0”-TR IP, up to 0.25” ZR mostly NE suburbs with less I’m town. Limited impacts compared to thoughts yesterday. NE GA north and east of ATL will be similar to my upstate prediction 

[Brick Tamland]

22 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

This is odd topic but the next weekend has potential to.

[Blacksburg Coach]

3 minutes ago, Tony Sisk said:

Agree!  I really want to be careful in how I say this...because I do not want to sound condescending. I do not know what has happened in the weather world. And I do not mean the meteorologist....I mean the models. The models just are not reliable anymore. The Science World for Weather...like US National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC need to figure this out. How can the models be this wrong. Now for the Forecasters via TV. They are just doing the best they can based on what the models are telling them. And I am positive that after a storm like Helene....they just want to take every potential threat seriously. The guys at GSP NWS are the best in the business. No one is immune to unpredictable weather. Truth is, only ONE knows...and that is our Creator! My fear is, people will draw cold to forecast and become that "yea right" person. And I get it. I guess I'm saying, show some grace to forecasters. Yes, there are some that get dramatic for hits, and will go all out and the worst/best case scenario. Learn who those people are. Otherwise, just be as prepared as you possibly can for weather related problems. As the case for this weekend, it appears to be a total "letdown" from the first expectations. But trust God! We all want what is best for each other. If it gets bad, check on your neighbors!

I once had an engineering pal tell me "with enough time and money, you can do just about anything". Right now we are not putting any time or money into the sciences. 

[olafminesaw]

[Brick Tamland]

20 minutes ago, Blue Ridge said:

Double edged sword, IMO. "Potential for significant winter weather" likely does not move the public needle enough in the event a devastating, 2002-esque ice storm does come to pass. 

I do agree that anyone with an iota of Carolinas forecasting experience should know better than to make p-type specific projections beyond three days lol

 

Yeah, but this was originally supposed to start Friday night. The models had a huge snow storm Tuesday. They moved to a huge freezing rain event Wednesday. And today we could be going to some spotty sleet or nothing. So all of this has been within three days of when it was originally supposed to start.

[Blacksburg Coach]

[Buddy1987]

5 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Love this! This playing out of the models is as old as time.. I didn't buy the Canadian for a second yesterday. The readjustment up until lead time will continue to happen in some sense, as models begin to realize the density of the airmass it will be up against. I personally don't buy the NAM either. The GFS used to be NOTORIOUS for doing this, where it would drive primaries way up into WV/PA and then would come back down to reality.

[Silver Meteor]

1 hour ago, wake4est said:

Having learned nothing in the past 72 hours, I'm all in for the 18" of snow the 0z Euro gives us next weekend. Bank on it.  Pic for funsies...

I posted this GFS storm a couple days ago. We're getting three? LOL

 

[Brick Tamland]

ICON still has a lot of freezing rain. 

[NorthHillsWx]

ICON is THE worst case model now. CAD locked in to point it doesn’t modify through event and mid levels actually warmer so it looks strongly like freezing rain, not sleet, for most

[NorthHillsWx]

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

ICON is THE worst case model now. CAD locked in to point it doesn’t modify through event and mid levels actually warmer so it looks strongly like freezing rain, not sleet, for most

And more QPF

[Buddy1987]

12z RGEM a good bit colder. @BornAgain13hr 64 is def worthy of posting. Hell of a WAA thump verbatim for your area north up toward me.

[DTP]

20 minutes ago, Blacksburg Coach said:

I once had an engineering pal tell me "without enough time and money, you can do just about anything". Right now we are not putting any time or money into the sciences. 

Someone way smarter than me told me to go where the money is when picking a career.  So I chose entrepreneurship in finance, private equity and health science

Later in life, someone much smarter than them told me to go where you feel the most fulfilled.  Now I am a  builder and developer 

I don't totally disagree; however, I do feel as that science is well-funded and emphasized, but often times you have people like me making the wrong career choices for the wrong reasons (chasing $$$$ v using your powers for good)....I actually wanted to go into meteorology when i was a teenager, but went a different scientific route in school/grad school (pharma chem).....started and sold several companies, but hated the business end outside of the science, manufacturing, problem solving and data parts

 

Much happier now tbh....

[olafminesaw]

3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

ICON is THE worst case model now. CAD locked in to point it doesn’t modify through event and mid levels actually warmer so it looks strongly like freezing rain, not sleet, for most

Same for the RGEM. It does have a good period of sleet but heavy ZR with temps in the low to mid 20s

[NorthHillsWx]

4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

12z RGEM a good bit colder. @BornAgain13hr 64 is def worthy of posting. Hell of a WAA thump verbatim for your area north up toward me.

It tries so hard to keep @BornAgain13 snow for the first 6-8 hours