BornAgain13 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 18z GEFS big run incoming.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 6 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: The real question becomes...where does that sleet line set up? I think WRAL has a good map for it. I think it could be a little further south at the southern border of Wake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Baron model in line with euro. More north than gfs . 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, PackGrad05 said: Baron model in line with euro. More north than gfs . What about the jester model? (Sorry Michelle) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David6310 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Long time reader, infrequent poster. We're 3-4 miles due east of PTI. If, and I know this is a big "if". we were to get 20"+ of snow/sleet is there a risk of your roof collapsing? We've had 12" in the triad before(Dec 2017?) and a 12-15 year old roof held up fine. But what totals would become a risk for snow collapsing the roof? FWIW - we had our roof replaced this past summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Whatever verifies, I have never seen back to back model runs as epic for NC as the GFS runs today. 3 day winter storm. Feb 14 was close but this is nuts. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Ya'll, I'm having too much fun checking all the beautiful layers as this unfolds mby will be a frozen tundra of the best sledding kind according to the gfs I highly recommend 10/10 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 12 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 18z GEFS big run incoming.... How’s it look compared to operational GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 39 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: That might be the most absurd run ever at any timeframe for NC 2000 was close!? Wait, that actually verified. I suppose the question for experts on here, have you ever seen something as consistently modeled over a few days ultimately vanish? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 I have to keep reminding myself that the gfs is a terrible model but… 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AGardiner87 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 The GEFS in fact has more mixing than the Op GFS. Its a crazy QPF bomb though 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockyKnob Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 10 minutes ago, Berlin1926 said: 2000 was close!? Wait, that actually verified. I suppose the question for experts on here, have you ever seen something as consistently modeled over a few days ultimately vanish? I have. After the big miss on the winter hurricane of 2000, that following December the models and even NOAA was calling for 12-18” across Central NC. Storm systems did not phase, and so we got zip. Not even rain. Just dry. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, RockyKnob said: I have. After the big miss on the winter hurricane of 2000, that following December the models and even NOAA was calling for 12-18” across Central NC. Storm systems did not phase, and so we got zip. Not even rain. Just dry. One of the biggest forecasting misses in modern East Coast history 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Solid run by the 18z GEFS but u can see the slow wobble north with the snow. Where does it stop? 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 8 minutes ago, AGardiner87 said: FYI that is taking sleet and considering it snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC2Winston Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Solid run by the 18z GEFS but u can see the slow wobble north with the snow. Where does it stop?4 runs does not make a forecast…however GSO cut in half from 10.0 to 5.6. Trend or wobbles we shall see…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 9 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Solid run by the 18z GEFS but u can see the slow wobble north with the snow. Where does it stop? GEFS much more in line with EURO. Consolidated on an I-85 battle zone. The difference is the battle zone is snow/ice vs. snow/rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 But how far north does this go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: But how far north does this go? Not sure but Euro is coming in North too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaPilot Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 I think for us here around ATL and just south, the problem with the models is how they handle the sleet/snow thing. I think we mix in the very beginning for a while, then the sleetfest and the freezing rain. The Models predicting total snowfall are likely really sleet totals, which is kind of insane. 3-4 inches of sleet followed by freezing rain will be devastating. Im kinda hoping for the sleet thing. The freezing rain setup looks really bad here. Fingers crossed. Sleet is ugly, snow is not. Freezing rain just outright sucks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 18z euro AI and Euro both wiggle north again. Not good yall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Need the north trends to stop but it’s Tuesday. We gotta remember this is still way too far out there for conclusions 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, BornAgain13 said: 18z euro AI and Euro both wiggle north again. Not good yall. GFS AI was way north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 But, I thought Webb and Dr. Wall said there’d be no way for a move north? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Valley Steve Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, BornAgain13 said: 18z euro AI and Euro both wiggle north again. Not good yall. You live in Southern Virginia don't you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 That northern stream energy could ruin this for a lot of us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Euro is ugly. At 18z every piece of guidance trended north. Every model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, Maggie Valley Steve said: You live in Southern Virginia don't you? Around 20 mins north of Danville in Dry Fork Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 18z Euro is a huge run but it still shifted north. Phased to early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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