January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[BornAgain13]

18z GEFS big run incoming....

[Brick Tamland]

6 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

The real question becomes...where does that sleet line set up?

I think WRAL has a good map for it. I think it could be a little further south at the southern border of Wake. 

[PackGrad05]

Baron model in line with euro. More north than gfs


.

[wncsnow]

Just now, PackGrad05 said:

Baron model in line with euro. More north than gfs


.

What about the jester model? (Sorry Michelle)

[David6310]

Long time reader, infrequent poster.   We're 3-4 miles due east of PTI.   If, and I know this is a big "if". we were to get 20"+ of snow/sleet is there a risk of your roof collapsing?   We've had 12" in the triad before(Dec 2017?) and a 12-15 year old roof held up fine.   But what totals would become a risk for snow collapsing the roof?  FWIW - we had our roof replaced this past summer.  

[Upstate Tiger]

Whatever verifies, I have never seen back to back model runs as epic for NC as the GFS runs today.  3 day winter storm.  Feb 14 was close but this is nuts.  

[buckeyefan1]

Ya'll, I'm having too much fun checking all the beautiful layers as this unfolds  mby will be a frozen tundra of the best sledding kind according to the gfs  I highly recommend 10/10

[lilj4425]

12 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

18z GEFS big run incoming....

How’s it look compared to operational GFS? 

[Berlin1926]

39 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

That might be the most absurd run ever at any timeframe for NC

2000 was close!?  Wait, that actually verified.  I suppose the question for experts on here, have you ever seen something as consistently modeled over a few days ultimately vanish?  

[NorthHillsWx]

I have to keep reminding myself that the gfs is a terrible model but…

[AGardiner87]

[wncsnow]

The GEFS in fact has more mixing than the Op GFS. Its a crazy QPF bomb though 

[RockyKnob]

10 minutes ago, Berlin1926 said:

2000 was close!?  Wait, that actually verified.  I suppose the question for experts on here, have you ever seen something as consistently modeled over a few days ultimately vanish?  

I have. After the big miss on the winter hurricane of 2000, that following December the models and even NOAA was calling for 12-18” across Central NC. Storm systems did not phase, and so we got zip. Not even rain. Just dry. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Just now, RockyKnob said:

I have. After the big miss on the winter hurricane of 2000, that following December the models and even NOAA was calling for 12-18” across Central NC. Storm systems did not phase, and so we got zip. Not even rain. Just dry. 

One of the biggest forecasting misses in modern East Coast history 

[BornAgain13]

Solid run by the 18z GEFS but u can see the slow wobble north with the snow. Where does it stop?

[olafminesaw]

8 minutes ago, AGardiner87 said:

FYI that is taking sleet and considering it snow 

[DC2Winston]

Solid run by the 18z GEFS but u can see the slow wobble north with the snow. Where does it stop?

4 runs does not make a forecast…however GSO cut in half from 10.0 to 5.6. Trend or wobbles we shall see…


.

[PackGrad05]

9 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Solid run by the 18z GEFS but u can see the slow wobble north with the snow. Where does it stop?

GEFS much more in line with EURO.  Consolidated on an I-85 battle zone.  The difference is the battle zone is snow/ice vs. snow/rain.  

[BornAgain13]

But how far north does this go? 

[wncsnow]

4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

But how far north does this go? 

Not sure but Euro is coming in North too

[DeltaPilot]

I think for us here around ATL and just south, the problem with the models is how they handle the sleet/snow thing. I think we mix in the very beginning for a while, then the sleetfest and the freezing rain. The Models predicting total snowfall are likely really sleet totals, which is kind of insane. 3-4 inches of sleet followed by freezing rain will be devastating. Im kinda hoping for the sleet thing. The freezing rain setup looks really bad here. Fingers crossed.

 

 Sleet is ugly, snow is not. Freezing rain just outright sucks.

[BornAgain13]

18z euro AI and Euro both wiggle north again. Not good yall.

[NorthHillsWx]

Need the north trends to stop but it’s Tuesday. We gotta remember this is still way too far out there for conclusions 

[NorthHillsWx]

Just now, BornAgain13 said:

18z euro AI and Euro both wiggle north again. Not good yall.

GFS AI was way north 

[WNC_Fort]

But, I thought Webb and Dr. Wall said there’d be no way for a move north?

[Maggie Valley Steve]

Just now, BornAgain13 said:

18z euro AI and Euro both wiggle north again. Not good yall.

You live in Southern Virginia don't you?

[wncsnow]

That northern stream energy could ruin this for a lot of us

[NorthHillsWx]

Euro is ugly. At 18z every piece of guidance trended north. Every model. 

[BornAgain13]

Just now, Maggie Valley Steve said:

You live in Southern Virginia don't you?

Around 20 mins north of Danville in Dry Fork

[BornAgain13]

18z Euro is a huge run but it still shifted north. Phased to early