January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[WXNewton]

6 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

ICON is North. Lots of freezing rain even in the foothills...

I would not say the ICON is North, it actually trended south from its run this morning which only went to hr 120, when compared to hr 114 on most current run. Also has been all over the place over the past 4 runs or so, I'd take the ICON with a grain of salt at this point until we get additional info.

[PackGrad05]

Based on location of high pressure and the current upstream dynamics, I'm predicting a more northerly track that puts most of NC south of 85 in the warmer sector.  Freezing rain/sleet dominates.  

[NorthHillsWx]

ICON is worst case for this storm in central NC. Very brief snow then straight to crippling ice. Hopefully that’s sleet but idk that track looks like an ice storm to me

[PackGrad05]

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

ICON is worst case for this storm in central NC. Very brief snow then straight to crippling ice. Hopefully that’s sleet but idk that track looks like an ice storm to me

I'm telling you, this may be the most likely outcome.  This is far from a slam dunk snowstorm.

[NC DataDude]

36 minutes ago, burgertime said:

Not even sure BOOM! does it justice in this case haha. 

KA-BOOM? LOL

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

6 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

It could be the start of the north trend. We'll see shortly.

I am not certain it's a north trend versus an expanding precip shield. As Eric Webb alluded to elsewhere, this is a massive arctic airmass we're dealing with and most models, especially the ICON, are likely underestimating the CAD.

[Brick Tamland]

Just now, PackGrad05 said:

I'm telling you, this may be the most likely outcome.  This is far from a slam dunk snowstorm.

I think you might have PTSD from past storms. 

[StormyClearweather]

4 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

I would not say the ICON is North, it actually trended south from its run this morning which only went to hr 120, when compared to hr 114 on most current run. Also has been all over the place over the past 4 runs or so, I'd take the ICON with a grain of salt at this point until we get additional info.

 

I would argue it trended slower and broader with the precip, due to enhanced strength and the coastal low scenario. 

[PackGrad05]

Just now, Brick Tamland said:

I think you might have PTSD from past storms. 

Over 40 years of experience and climatology... Plus the fact that we are still days away.

[wncsnow]

GFS looks promising so far

[buckeyefan1]

Just now, PackGrad05 said:

I'm telling you, this may be the most likely outcome.  This is far from a slam dunk snowstorm.

It’s not going north. Nobody said anything about a slam dunk. Nobody will know anything about precip types until go time. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Just now, PackGrad05 said:

I'm telling you, this may be the most likely outcome.  This is far from a slam dunk snowstorm.

I’ve been on the side of a I-85 and north snowstorm this whole time. I am cautiously optimistic given the strength of HP that ZR will be south and east of here. I believe triangles best outcome here is a heavy 6-8” front end followed by prolonged sleet. That would make everyone here happy. ICON, CMC are the worst case, 2002-like but colder. Just can wrap my head around being in lower 20s with ZR I’d have to think the IP area is larger than modeled. 

[DeltaPilot]

27 minutes ago, Snow dog said:

Where is your location in Georgia?

Im in Senoia, about 3nm southeast of the NOAA radar facility at KFFC, 20 nm almost due south of KATL.

[buckeyefan1]

3 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Over 40 years of experience and climatology... Plus the fact that we are still days away.

No. Please stop 

[olafminesaw]

The high pressure is pressing in more through 90 on the GFS. Should be a good run

[wncsnow]

GFS keeps the Baja low back more. Will be further south but maybe less precipitation. 

[BooneWX]

Reminder that the icon was still plowing the LP into the high at 0z last night. It seems to be finding its footing, which is typical, because it’s useless. 

[wncsnow]

Great run for those who want snow instead of ice 

[wxdawg10]

8 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

I'm telling you, this may be the most likely outcome.  This is far from a slam dunk snowstorm.

So for all the uncertainty, why are you certain in the one extreme solution not being backed by other guidance?

strange. if you want to cliff dive, there's a thread for that

 

[stormwatcherJ]

Just now, wncsnow said:

Great run for those who want snow instead of ice 

So that's everyone, lol

[btownheel]

Reminder that the icon was still plowing the LP into the high at 0z last night. It seems to be finding its footing, which is typical, because it’s useless. 

Everyone here has beaten dog syndrome, so there’s a tendency to hunt for the model that has the single worst outcome then declare that to be unabridged truth. I get it, but again, y’all, enjoy this! Been the better part of a decade since we had dynamics like this and something really fun to track.


.

[Brick Tamland]

[Thrasher Fan]

12z GFS considerably colder for the region out to 111h

[Brick Tamland]

[olafminesaw]

3 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Reminder that the icon was still plowing the LP into the high at 0z last night. It seems to be finding its footing, which is typical, because it’s useless. 

It's always fun because it starts off the 12z suite in the mid range and is very often the exact opposite of how the rest of the suite trends

[buckeyefan1]

[BooneWX]

Just now, buckeyefan1 said:

Looks a lot like its 18z run from yesterday 

[wncsnow]

GFS AI is also colder and south

[burgertime]

GFS is out to 123 and is an absolute beaut. Looks like a lotta snow but need to check some of the temp maps. 

[KrummWx]

GFS with a 1055 high at h66. Holy guac