January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[marsman]

NWS calling for a single-digit low of 9 in the RDU area on Sunday night. That has to be a typo, right? [Padme meme] Right? 

[WXNewton]

Does anyone have snow maps for 18z AI GFS? Looks like it had a stout second piece of energy. 

[Brick Tamland]

GFS another crusher run for NC. 

[Thrasher Fan]

12 minutes ago, wxdawg10 said:

A war is happening on X between NE mets hugging the Euro AI  and their followers seeing anything but southern trends.  interesting how this ends up

As we currently stand, the NE mets are doing a fine job of ignoring how flat the HP is over them.

[yotaman]

5 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

GFS another crusher run for NC. 

Wow, 2 feet for my area. Lock it in.

[buckeyefan1]

18z gfs

 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

19 minutes ago, marsman said:

NWS calling for a single-digit low of 9 in the RDU area on Sunday night. That has to be a typo, right? [Padme meme] Right? 

Until recent years, 9 degrees in mid winter at RDU would not be especially noteworthy, especially with snow cover. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

17 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

GFS another crusher run for NC. 

Great Scott! Pinch me!

[olafminesaw]

GEFS a bit south, big picture comparison

[WXNewton]

GEFS is going to be a bit north of OP, but further south than 12z GEFS. Heaviest totals appear to be lining up right down I40 from West to East. Also seems to be step for step with 12z EPS. Regardless, this run is going to be big for many!

[SnowDawg]

Will be absolutely incredible if this actually ends up as long duration as it’s showing it could be. Been a long time since seeing something like that.

[buckeyefan1]

This is from the 12z Euro Ens for mby 

 

[Tony Sisk]

8 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

This is from the 12z Euro Ens for mby 

 

Can you put this in layman terms?

[BornAgain13]

Weird? Is it better to look at total snowfall mean on the GEFS or Snow Depth Mean?

[buckeyefan1]

5 minutes ago, Tony Sisk said:

Can you put this in layman terms?

It's every euro model that is run, including the op, that creates the ensemble. Each colored segment is a 24 hr period of the winter goodness that specific model is showing. 50 total

[olafminesaw]

9 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Weird? Is it better to look at total snowfall mean on the GEFS or Snow Depth Mean?

I think it depends on the algorithm, pivotal seems to count ice as snow on the snow depth, so I would use Kuchera. 

[WXNewton]

18z GEFS mean depth...

[BornAgain13]

18z Euro AI got colder this run to and gives central and Southern Va a Monster Snowstorm. 

[WXNewton]

18z AI Euro south and colder than 12z again

[BornAgain13]

[Jimbo!]

18z Euro AI got colder this run to and gives central and Southern Va a Monster Snowstorm. 

I could swear I read Van Denton out GSO saying it was showing something like 1.4-1.5” liquid equivalent. Jeeesh


.

[wxdawg10]

4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Will keep correcting south.  NC piedmont looks to be the bullseye from all i've seen today so far

[buckeyefan1]

18z Euro 

[BornAgain13]

18z Euro very similar to 12z. Monster Snowstorm for Many and crippling ice further south

[NCBlizzard]

35 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Weird? Is it better to look at total snowfall mean on the GEFS or Snow Depth Mean?

Regardless of model, I have often found the "snow depth" field to better represent what you actually experience on the ground, with melting etc - almost like Kuchera+. But some like the GDPS don't use Kuchera for calculating snow depth (just 10:1). I'm not sure which models do/don't, or what site has snow depth derived with Kuchera.

[suzook]

Ouch with the EURO. Inch and a half of ice in the ATL area. Ooof. 

[CentralNC]

1 minute ago, suzook said:

Ouch with the EURO. Inch and a half of ice in the ATL area. Ooof. 

Even if total qpf is likely overdone, still a huge crippling storm

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, suzook said:

Ouch with the EURO. Inch and a half of ice in the ATL area. Ooof. 

Soundings show it may be more sleet.  There's a sub freezing layer from 875mb and below which often is deep enough

[NYweatherguy]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Soundings show it may be more sleet.  There's a sub freezing layer from 875mb and below which often is deep enough

Looks like all sleet north of Atlanta. Still nasty.