January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[Snow dog]

Just now, Upstate Tiger said:

Lot of similarities to the January 88 storm with this setup.

https://www.weather.gov/media/gsp/localdat/TechAttachments/ta2001-02.pdf

Man-I'd take a 1988 redux for sure!

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Just now, WXNewton said:

Temps to go with it...It's hard to put much stock into it seeing how much it shifted since last night though. GFS seems way more consistent so far. 

Frozen pipe and ponds conditions 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

GFS AI cold correcting underway 

[BornAgain13]

UK with a monster hit. Around 15" up this way . Over 2 feet northern VA

[olafminesaw]

2 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

Temps to go with it...It's hard to put much stock into it seeing how much it shifted since last night though. GFS seems way more consistent so far. That would not be good either way throwing that type of precip over low 20 surface temps in the Piedmont.

That run very reminiscent of the January 2022 storm in terms of the wedge

[BornAgain13]

12z GEFS

 

[olafminesaw]

2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

12z GEFS

 

You're in a great spot for this one! 

[BornAgain13]

This may should go in the mid term discussion but the Canadian had a Miller A at the end of its Run

[SnowGoose69]

17 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

12z UKMET much further south than 0z, still tries to run low into heart of the CAD, regardless of trying to do that, it's an absolute mess of a storm across much of NC and would be bad in many ways!

The UKMET having rain in NE GA in that setup is funny

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

19 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Lot of similarities to the January 88 storm with this setup.

https://www.weather.gov/media/gsp/localdat/TechAttachments/ta2001-02.pdf

Agreed.  I remember the confidence early as well.  

[btownheel]

The NC weenie run

Yeh. A foot plus from Murphy to Manteo. That’ll work.


.

[HWY316wx]

Not trying to start an argument, but correct me if I am wrong, didn't the UK absolutely whiff at the system we had move through here this past Saturday / Sunday?  As I recall it was too warm at this range and pretty close to the event.  The EURO had it in spades and everyone else played catchup.

Feel free to set me straight.

[Met1985]

3 minutes ago, HWY316wx said:

Not trying to start an argument, but correct me if I am wrong, didn't the UK absolutely whiff at the system we had move through here this past Saturday / Sunday?  As I recall it was too warm at this range and pretty close to the event.  The EURO had it in spades and everyone else played catchup.

Feel free to set me straight.

I don't even look at the UK anymore. 

[BornAgain13]

Lol the Euro doesnt want to run or the AI Euro. May have a trick up its sleeve lol

[suzook]

21 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The UKMET having rain in NE GA in that setup is funny

It is very odd.

[Brick Tamland]

UK did come in further south, though. Same with the GFS AI. Seems that is the trend today with the further north models. GFS holding steady.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Capital Weather Gang

[Maggie Valley Steve]

8 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Capital Weather Gang

Not even worth posting.

[olafminesaw]

WPC likes the southerly track 

[Tony Sisk]

48 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Lot of similarities to the January 88 storm with this setup.

https://www.weather.gov/media/gsp/localdat/TechAttachments/ta2001-02.pdf

GSP had a record snowfall of 12 inches. Interstates were shut down from Birmingham to Charlotte to Raleigh

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Reduce UKMET totals  in North Carolina because of heavy, prolonged sleet 

[olafminesaw]

20 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Lol the Euro doesnt want to run or the AI Euro. May have a trick up its sleeve lol

Seems to be running now

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Excellent point 

[BooneWX]

Well the Euro AI just came south, led by it noticing that CAD is a thing

[cbmclean]

If you're talking Twitterati (or maybe X-eratti now) Webb seems to leaning towards more SE impacts due to the potential strength of the high.  BAM is placing confidence in the more NW AI solutions.  BAM seems to be based in Indiana area so I wonder if that "want" that to be the case more.

I'm obviously hoping Webb is right this time.  We for sure know he is not afraid to say so if he feels the pattern is not conducive for the SE.  

[olafminesaw]

1 minute ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Excellent point 

Seems like half the social media weather community is people from the Northeast who will defend any model that shows what they want to see

[BornAgain13]

Euro AI definitely a shift south 

[BornAgain13]

Lol Euro AI has 3 hits... over 30" total here for all 3 lol

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[BornAgain13]