First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Spanks45 said:

AI was weaker vs 6z....not huge, maybe more noise than anything

Yeah a little east tick there

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think at this point I just want to fill CT with freshwater and wait for SW winds.

I'd take that. we'd all clean up, any sort of westerly component 

[CoastalWx]

AI is tossed 

[SouthCoastMA]

MPM is safe for now. I worry about him in Mattapoisett

[ORH_wxman]

12z is pretty much bad trends across the board so far. Icon got a smidge better but that is almost meaningless because it’s the icon and it also was so far east at 06z, it couldn’t get any worse. 

[MJO812]

Gfs

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

AI is tossed 

Maybe just a one-and-done C-2 forecast tonight.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Saw the first few posts were “better” and I said “ I bet the exact opposite is reality, and look at what it was. 

[weatherwiz]

I actually wonder if we may see a few decent hits on the GEFS...I think if we can at least see some decent hits that should be enough to keep the idea alive that we could see some favorable trends in the next day. If the GEFS is pretty meh though...that combined with a subpar Euro might be enough to make for a nearly flat heartbeat on this

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Gfs

I pray this just goes out to sea. I want no part of another 1.5” annoyance 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

lol the early posts west actually ending up well east from 6z.. always happens

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Saw the first few posts were “better” and I said “ I bet the exact opposite is reality, and look at what it was. 

I worried when I saw it was Wiggum bc he seems to like to try to be the first to report on perceived trends at hour 6, so he can copy and paste the post to his 13 social media accounts

[ineedsnow]

It amazes me that we're in 2025 and models can't even be close to each other 2 days out

[CoastalWx]

Yeah except for Reggie meh trends.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I actually wonder if we may see a few decent hits on the GEFS...I think if we can at least see some decent hits that should be enough to keep the idea alive that we could see some favorable trends in the next day. If the GEFS is pretty meh though...that combined with a subpar Euro might be enough to make for a nearly flat heartbeat on this

It could definitely still trend back west on the next couple cycles, but the problem is the closer you get to the event, the less likely the models are to be wrong and the moves typically get smaller. So if we’re trying to bring it west 100-150 miles in the final 36-48 hours, that’s a tough lift. If we only need maybe half that distance, it’s more realistic. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah except for Reggie meh trends.

Even Reggie trended east a bit. Though it had better dynamics so the rates looked better for us eastern folk. 

[Kitz Craver]

The exhaustion continues. Can the freaking models stop FN with us now?!

[dendrite]

Same ol’ G(FS)

 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I worried when I saw it was Wiggum bc he seems to like to try to be the first to report on perceived trends at hour 6, so he can copy and paste the post to his 13 social media accounts

It was better but ended up flatter.

[CoastalWx]

Meteorological solitary confinement continues baby. And people wonder why more and more are converting to the warm season. This hobby sucks out loud.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I pray this just goes out to sea. I want no part of another 1.5” annoyance 

I have had like 6" events of 1/4" and 12 events under 3". JUST STOOOOP.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I worried when I saw it was Wiggum bc he seems to like to try to be the first to report on perceived trends at hour 6, so he can copy and paste the post to his 13 social media accounts

Right. This is why I said yesterday, people need to let the runs play out at least a little bit before spitting out “ it’s west” you can’t tell shit 8 hours into the model run.

There is really nothing worse than people jumping to conclusions and the end result being garbage, again.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

It could definitely still trend back west on the next couple cycles, but the problem is the closer you get to the event, the less likely the models are to be wrong and the moves typically get smaller. So if we’re trying to bring it west 100-150 miles in the final 36-48 hours, that’s a tough lift. If we only need maybe half that distance, it’sore realistic. 

Agreed, a shift to that extent is going to be a very difficult task if we don't see some significant improvements by 0z tonight. If I were in eastern areas though I think I might feel a bit better about this because the shifts needed will be much less. It's really hard to go one way or another with this because we have seen some pretty drastic shifts with the handling of that northern stream energy and how it interacts with the southern stream

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, MJO812 said:

It was better but ended up flatter.

Yea, better at hour 6.

[DomNH]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe just a one-and-done C-2 forecast tonight.

Is that with or without the pasty inch on the grass and car tomorrow? Disaster. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Meteorological solitary confinement continues baby. And people wonder why more and more are converting to the warm season. This hobby sucks out loud.

I’ve come to love summer. Really enjoyed this past year. Can’t wait to be back to warm weather, longer days. Really does wonders for mental health 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, better at hour 6.

Dont be stupid 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, DomNH said:

Is that with or without the pasty inch on the grass and car tomorrow? Disaster. 

I honestly wish it would all go away...I don't want to deal with it on or offline.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Dont be stupid 

Your analysis is stupid...always. Take your 30 days of MJO 8 and shove it.

[dendrite]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, better at hour 6.

Idk how you could determine if it’s going to be better until about 36hr in. By then it was pretty clear it was going to be flatter.