CoastalWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, Spanks45 said: AI was weaker vs 6z....not huge, maybe more noise than anything Yeah a little east tick there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think at this point I just want to fill CT with freshwater and wait for SW winds. I'd take that. we'd all clean up, any sort of westerly component Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 AI is tossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 MPM is safe for now. I worry about him in Mattapoisett Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 12z is pretty much bad trends across the board so far. Icon got a smidge better but that is almost meaningless because it’s the icon and it also was so far east at 06z, it couldn’t get any worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Gfs 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: AI is tossed Maybe just a one-and-done C-2 forecast tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Saw the first few posts were “better” and I said “ I bet the exact opposite is reality, and look at what it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 I actually wonder if we may see a few decent hits on the GEFS...I think if we can at least see some decent hits that should be enough to keep the idea alive that we could see some favorable trends in the next day. If the GEFS is pretty meh though...that combined with a subpar Euro might be enough to make for a nearly flat heartbeat on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, MJO812 said: Gfs I pray this just goes out to sea. I want no part of another 1.5” annoyance 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 lol the early posts west actually ending up well east from 6z.. always happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Saw the first few posts were “better” and I said “ I bet the exact opposite is reality, and look at what it was. I worried when I saw it was Wiggum bc he seems to like to try to be the first to report on perceived trends at hour 6, so he can copy and paste the post to his 13 social media accounts 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 It amazes me that we're in 2025 and models can't even be close to each other 2 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Yeah except for Reggie meh trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I actually wonder if we may see a few decent hits on the GEFS...I think if we can at least see some decent hits that should be enough to keep the idea alive that we could see some favorable trends in the next day. If the GEFS is pretty meh though...that combined with a subpar Euro might be enough to make for a nearly flat heartbeat on this It could definitely still trend back west on the next couple cycles, but the problem is the closer you get to the event, the less likely the models are to be wrong and the moves typically get smaller. So if we’re trying to bring it west 100-150 miles in the final 36-48 hours, that’s a tough lift. If we only need maybe half that distance, it’s more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah except for Reggie meh trends. Even Reggie trended east a bit. Though it had better dynamics so the rates looked better for us eastern folk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 The exhaustion continues. Can the freaking models stop FN with us now?! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Same ol’ G(FS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I worried when I saw it was Wiggum bc he seems to like to try to be the first to report on perceived trends at hour 6, so he can copy and paste the post to his 13 social media accounts It was better but ended up flatter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Meteorological solitary confinement continues baby. And people wonder why more and more are converting to the warm season. This hobby sucks out loud. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I pray this just goes out to sea. I want no part of another 1.5” annoyance I have had like 6" events of 1/4" and 12 events under 3". JUST STOOOOP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I worried when I saw it was Wiggum bc he seems to like to try to be the first to report on perceived trends at hour 6, so he can copy and paste the post to his 13 social media accounts Right. This is why I said yesterday, people need to let the runs play out at least a little bit before spitting out “ it’s west” you can’t tell shit 8 hours into the model run. There is really nothing worse than people jumping to conclusions and the end result being garbage, again. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, ORH_wxman said: It could definitely still trend back west on the next couple cycles, but the problem is the closer you get to the event, the less likely the models are to be wrong and the moves typically get smaller. So if we’re trying to bring it west 100-150 miles in the final 36-48 hours, that’s a tough lift. If we only need maybe half that distance, it’sore realistic. Agreed, a shift to that extent is going to be a very difficult task if we don't see some significant improvements by 0z tonight. If I were in eastern areas though I think I might feel a bit better about this because the shifts needed will be much less. It's really hard to go one way or another with this because we have seen some pretty drastic shifts with the handling of that northern stream energy and how it interacts with the southern stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 Just now, MJO812 said: It was better but ended up flatter. Yea, better at hour 6. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Maybe just a one-and-done C-2 forecast tonight. Is that with or without the pasty inch on the grass and car tomorrow? Disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, CoastalWx said: Meteorological solitary confinement continues baby. And people wonder why more and more are converting to the warm season. This hobby sucks out loud. I’ve come to love summer. Really enjoyed this past year. Can’t wait to be back to warm weather, longer days. Really does wonders for mental health 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, better at hour 6. Dont be stupid 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 Just now, DomNH said: Is that with or without the pasty inch on the grass and car tomorrow? Disaster. I honestly wish it would all go away...I don't want to deal with it on or offline. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 Just now, MJO812 said: Dont be stupid Your analysis is stupid...always. Take your 30 days of MJO 8 and shove it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, better at hour 6. Idk how you could determine if it’s going to be better until about 36hr in. By then it was pretty clear it was going to be flatter. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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