weathafella Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: When you take a leak at 3:00 am…check back in quick and see what the Euro showed? Lol. He may not have reached that stage of life yet. I was in my 50s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: notice how the vort is less involved in the broader trough… way more legit PVA here compared to the previous run as it pivots 0z looks much more concentrated/defined in your graphic there, if that’s a word(s) to use here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I mentioned Dec 5-6, 1981 to Kev early today....requires a deeper dive but wonder I there is analog potential....ironically enough, the early SSW was very like that year. That December 5-6, 1981 event was one my favorites. NNW flow prevented any changeover that was predicted at least for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago no high to our north or east, this could trend another 50-100 miles west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Probably some shuffling back and forth with so much time left. The last few years of coastal failures have left me a bit skeptical. If it looks similar in 24 hours then maybe we're out of the woods with the 'what can go wrong will go wrong' feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Precursor advy event for the interior still there as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said: no high to our north or east, this could trend another 50-100 miles west Longitudinal trends on this will be driven by trough dynamics rather than downstream features 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Lagging vorticity I was referring to was here... this could be feedback from the line of convection sweeping off southeast coast, I'm not sure as 6z GFS hinted at this too, but it disrupts much better cyclogenesis. Otherwise, we'd have a huge hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago uncle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: uncle? OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 5 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: uncle? big improvement, came noticeably west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, dryslot said: OTS the europeans have lost the weather forecasting plot since the euro update years ago and gfs taking king since nemo in my opinion! Euro models will whiff and be stubborn while good models like gfs and cmc will hit and probably expand its precip shield by another 50-100 miles by making a bm track and making the storm stronger to around 985-990 millibars. i think anybody north west of Yarmouth and up to Worcester and west of Montauk up to Poughkeepsie is getting a dumping. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: OTS Just now, The 4 Seasons said: big improvement, came noticeably west. These are not the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago GEFS looks great, heres the 00Z trend 4-cycles 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Ukie was still mostly a miss. Scraper. But it was better than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, WinterWolf said: These are not the same. well both can be true. ill show you in a sec 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, WinterWolf said: These are not the same. They are both right though. I t did come way west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago GEFS individual lows 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: These are not the same. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said: Ok, ya that was a big jump there. Thanks for the visual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Looks like crap but who cares it’s the ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GEFS individual lows give us that and everyone will be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, dryslot said: Looks like shit The takeaway was the shift though. Which was significant on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GEFS individual lows Nice looking lows southwest of the center....been fooled by the GEFS recently, so will take it for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, WinterWolf said: The takeaway was the shift though. Which was significant on that run. right. and i think thatll give us an idea along with every other single piece of guidance what the ec/eps/ai will do, id be shocked if it were the same or worse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: The takeaway was the shift though. Which was significant on that run. Define shift? Because I see a couple tics possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, dryslot said: Define shift? 4Seasons showed it..it moved significantly west bro. Go back a couple posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Man there is going to be an absolutely zonked NAM run within the next 48-72 hours or so 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: 4Seasons showed it..it moved significantly west bro. Go back a couple posts. I’m not going to go into dissecting the uncle but if you want to run with it, Go ahead, It’s not very useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said: Man there is going to be an absolutely zonked NAM run within the next 48-72 hours or so Agree, You know it’s coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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