First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

When you take a leak at 3:00 am…check back in quick and see what the Euro showed? Lol. 

He may not have reached that stage of life yet.  I was in my 50s.

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

notice how the vort is less involved in the broader trough… way more legit PVA here compared to the previous run as it pivots

0z looks much more concentrated/defined in your graphic there, if that’s a word(s) to use here. 

[FRWEATHA]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I mentioned Dec 5-6, 1981 to Kev early today....requires a deeper dive but wonder I there is analog potential....ironically enough, the early SSW was very like that year.

That December 5-6, 1981 event was one my favorites. NNW flow prevented any changeover that was predicted at least for here.

[WeatherGeek2025]

no high to our north or east, this could trend another 50-100 miles west

[rimetree]

Probably some shuffling back and forth with so much time left. The last few years of coastal failures have left me a bit skeptical. If it looks similar in 24 hours then maybe we're out of the woods with the 'what can go wrong will go wrong' feeling.

[radarman]

Precursor advy event for the interior still there as well

[Boston Bulldog]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

no high to our north or east, this could trend another 50-100 miles west

Longitudinal trends on this will be driven by trough dynamics rather than downstream features

[wxsniss]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Lagging vorticity I was referring to was here... this could be feedback from the line of convection sweeping off southeast coast, I'm not sure as 6z GFS hinted at this too, but it disrupts much better cyclogenesis. Otherwise, we'd have a huge hit.

[WeatherGeek2025]

uncle?

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

uncle?

OTS

[The 4 Seasons]

5 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

uncle?

big improvement, came noticeably west. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, dryslot said:

OTS

the europeans have lost the weather forecasting plot since the euro update years ago and gfs taking king since nemo in my opinion! Euro models will whiff and be stubborn while good models like gfs and cmc will hit and probably expand its precip shield by another 50-100 miles by making a bm track and making the storm stronger to around 985-990 millibars. i think anybody north west of Yarmouth and up to Worcester and west of Montauk up to Poughkeepsie is getting a dumping.

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

OTS

 

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

big improvement, came noticeably west. 

These are not the same. 

[The 4 Seasons]

GEFS looks great, heres the 00Z trend 4-cycles

[ORH_wxman]

Ukie was still mostly a miss. Scraper. But it was better than 12z. 

[The 4 Seasons]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

 

These are not the same. 

well both can be true. ill show you in a sec

[8611Blizz]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

 

These are not the same. 

They are both right though. I t did come way west

[ORH_wxman]

GEFS individual lows

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

 

These are not the same. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Ok, ya that was a big jump there. Thanks for the visual. 

[dryslot]

Looks like crap but who cares it’s the ukie.

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GEFS individual lows

give us that and everyone will be happy

[WinterWolf]

Just now, dryslot said:

Looks like shit

The takeaway was the shift though. Which was significant on that run. 

[Spanks45]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GEFS individual lows

Nice looking lows southwest of the center....been fooled by the GEFS recently, so will take it for now

[The 4 Seasons]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

The takeaway was the shift though. Which was significant on that run. 

right. and i think thatll give us an idea along with every other single piece of guidance what the ec/eps/ai will do, id be shocked if it were the same or worse. 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

The takeaway was the shift though. Which was significant on that run. 

Define shift? Because I see a couple tics possibly.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, dryslot said:

Define shift?

4Seasons showed it..it moved significantly west bro. Go back a couple posts. 

[Boston Bulldog]

Man there is going to be an absolutely zonked NAM run within the next 48-72 hours or so

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

4Seasons showed it..it moved significantly west bro. Go back a couple posts. 

I’m not going to go into dissecting the uncle but if you want to run with it, Go ahead, It’s not very useful.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

Man there is going to be an absolutely zonked NAM run within the next 48-72 hours or so

Agree, You know it’s coming.