January 16-18th: Rolling the dice

[WxUSAF]

13 minutes ago, high risk said:

          Are these dates off by 1?

  

Yes! Fixed

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro has a dusting for most on Saturday. 1” for @CAPE

GFS and CMC have a little something too.

[WxUSAF]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

GFS and CMC have a little something too.

Ukie has a lot of something 

[bncho]

18z NAM will try for Friday

[stormtracker]

8 minutes ago, bncho said:

18z NAM will try for Friday

Nah

[nw baltimore wx]

Nam has some snow Saturday west of 95 but it’s almost hour 95, so there’s that.

[nw baltimore wx]

Am I missing something? My post above was referring to the 12k nam, but the 3k nam also has some snow late Friday into Saturday.

[TSSN+]

Nam and icon have snows icon more aggressive 

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Nam and icon have snows icon more aggressive 

Add the Rgem to the list 

[TSSN+]

Think our best chance of snow is Saturday from this little jet stream and vort wave. Icon and Rgem putting down 1-3” over the area. 

[NorthArlington101]

Now that I’m leaving to chase some snow suddenly Saturday looks snowier. Aahhh! Hope it pans out for everyone. 

[eduggs]

I think the snow talk is referring to Saturday. Yes that's the best snow threat at this juncture. So far 18z is worse for the Sun/Mon coastal threat.

You don't want shortwave troffing (concave up) northeast of the vortmax at the base of the trof. That's a recipe for a late trof evolution and OTS solution. The 12z ECMWF moved a vorticity-laden shortwave through OH and NY early Sunday, which ruined the coastal threat. The 18z NAM/ICON increased troffing (concave up) in this area. By comparison, the 12z GFS had subtle shortwave ridging (concave down) over NYS.

[WxUSAF]

13 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Add the Rgem to the list 

Rgem is gorgeous 

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Rgem is gorgeous 

I think you mean Icon.

[WeatherGeek2025]

GFS loading...PBP anyone?

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I think you mean Icon.

Icon was better but rgem was nice too 1”+ 

[WxUSAF]

GFS still says a dusting for DC metro Friday morning. Looks nothing like other guidance for Saturday.

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

GFS still says a dusting for DC metro Friday morning 

It’s totally out on Saturday though, which is probably a positive as far as the event goes

[Maestrobjwa]

24 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

GFS loading...PBP anyone?

More like Poor-by-Poor!