Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[olafminesaw]

Piedmont split looking strong! At least we won't wiff this one right? 

[Upstate Tiger]

57 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Piedmont split looking strong! At least we won't wiff this one right? 

We're definetly going to see much needed rain.  How much looks dependent on how far west the TC tracks.  Hopefully we see the rain without the wind.

[NorthHillsWx]

Hate seeing that convection showing up on the coast, that typically screws us in these tropical setups. Ive seen this dozens of times with a tropical system going west of the apps retrograding into a large non-tropical low where days of heavy rain modeled ends up as a singular line of strong storms while the coast gets inches of rain and the convection sits there. This is not a great setup for prolonged rain in the piedmont of NC. Eastern slopes of mountains will get pummeled though

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Mid-Month

 

[Avdave]

With this set up potentially happening, my gut tells me that somehow, someway the piedmont will get screwed on the rainfall.  Similar to last Feb winter snow, except that was a dry slot and totally different set up. This just doesnt sit well with me for an inch+ of rainfall here. Im hope Im wrong though

[NorthHillsWx]

Very good chance of severe weather across the south given the combination of a tropical system interacting with a strong jet and dry air shooting in the backside. Probably a tornado outbreak for the south

[BooneWX]

14 minutes ago, Avdave said:

With this set up potentially happening, my gut tells me that somehow, someway the piedmont will get screwed on the rainfall.  Similar to last Feb winter snow, except that was a dry slot and totally different set up. This just doesnt sit well with me for an inch+ of rainfall here. Im hope Im wrong though

Weirdly, I think everyone is getting smoked. I may be 100% wrong, but with that flow, we’ll be getting not only the southerly fetch from the gulf, but the Atlantic will get tapped into as the storm gains latitude. There’s certainly going to be max’s to the west and east of the piedmont but this is your classic, squeezing every last drop out of the clouds type of setup for the Carolinas. Also one of those situations where the moments of blankness on radar are still producing heavy drizzle/light rain. 

[BooneWX]

What’s everyone’s gamble on timing? App kicks off homecoming at 1 pm. Selfishly hoping we get a rain free game for our passing attack lol.

[Jimbo!]

Well I see it’s that time again….


.

[BooneWX]

50 minutes ago, Jimbo! said:

Well I see it’s that time again….


.

Jimbo!!! I hope you’re doing well.

[Ernest T Bass]

53 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

What’s everyone’s gamble on timing? App kicks off homecoming at 1 pm. Selfishly hoping we get a rain free game for our passing attack lol.

Euro is slower with the rain, and GFS faster I believe.  Hope it holds off for you.  Going to State-Wake in Raleigh and hoping for delayed rain start there too.  

[wncsnow]

I think the worst is Sat. after the game but I expect there to be upslope showers by kickoff at App.

 

I think the escarpment gets 4-6 easily from this maybe more. We should be able to handle that with the antecedent conditions being fairly dry. Anything more than 8 and its trouble. 

[Avdave]

4 hours ago, BooneWX said:

Weirdly, I think everyone is getting smoked. I may be 100% wrong, but with that flow, we’ll be getting not only the southerly fetch from the gulf, but the Atlantic will get tapped into as the storm gains latitude. There’s certainly going to be max’s to the west and east of the piedmont but this is your classic, squeezing every last drop out of the clouds type of setup for the Carolinas. Also one of those situations where the moments of blankness on radar are still producing heavy drizzle/light rain. 

I hope you are correct.  I hope it rains Sat night to Sunday night. 

It is looking more likely a pretty strong storm to hit the mobile bay area and then move northward and the rains spread out oVer TN/NC

[ncjoaquin]

I will just drop this in here.  Hopefully,  I beat my .06 from last weekend. From the GSP AFD :

There is some hint that heavier rain will set up along
the coastal front, where better instability and frontogenesis will
be. This could interrupt moisture transport, and help keep rainfall
totals over the CAD wedge and the SELY upslope areas in check.

[gman]

1 hour ago, ncjoaquin said:

I will just drop this in here.  Hopefully,  I beat my .06 from last weekend. From the GSP AFD :

There is some hint that heavier rain will set up along
the coastal front, where better instability and frontogenesis will
be. This could interrupt moisture transport, and help keep rainfall
totals over the CAD wedge and the SELY upslope areas in check.

Yep. I was feeling optimistic about the Greenville area finally getting some decent rain until I read that tidbit from the GSP NWS. 

[wncsnow]

10 minutes ago, gman said:

Yep. I was feeling optimistic about the Greenville area finally getting some decent rain until I read that tidbit from the GSP NWS. 

I think areas closer to the Blue Ridge will do well due to the flow from the SE/uplift but there could be a precip minima near the I-77 corridor or a little east of there. 

[NorthHillsWx]

2 hours ago, ncjoaquin said:

I will just drop this in here.  Hopefully,  I beat my .06 from last weekend. From the GSP AFD :

There is some hint that heavier rain will set up along
the coastal front, where better instability and frontogenesis will
be. This could interrupt moisture transport, and help keep rainfall
totals over the CAD wedge and the SELY upslope areas in check.

oh dear lord here we go again 

[cbmclean]

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

oh dear lord here we go again 

You called it already.  Just take credit as we enjoy our 0.09" of drizzle and move on.

[olafminesaw]

14 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

oh dear lord here we go again 

Yup ...

[eyewall]

8 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

Yup ...

They updated it not long ago and cut back central NC from this:

[NorthHillsWx]

My expectation for most of the piedmont is 1" but I would not be surprised in the coastal convection robbed even more moisture and there is a screw zone of like 1/2" between here and PTI

[Avdave]

On 10/7/2026 at 10:15 AM, Avdave said:

With this set up potentially happening, my gut tells me that somehow, someway the piedmont will get screwed on the rainfall.  Similar to last Feb winter snow, except that was a dry slot and totally different set up. This just doesnt sit well with me for an inch+ of rainfall here. Im hope Im wrong though

My gut maybe right after all with the way the QPF keeps lowering here in the piedmont.  Jesus we cant get anything right here except for drought and humidity/heat.