Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[cbmclean]

3 hours ago, BooneWX said:

Good to see yall score. It’s warm but based on the short range guidance, I think rates will overcome and you should get some solid dynamic cooling from the top down. 

Too soon.

[cbmclean]

Some potential for non-trivial rain on Monday.  Keeping fingers crossed.

[BooneWX]

Through 15 days…. We’ve got problems ahead


.

[BooneWX]

On 6/19/2026 at 8:32 AM, cbmclean said:

Some potential for non-trivial rain on Monday.  Keeping fingers crossed.

Anddddd it went poof 

[UnionCountyNCWX]

Ladies and gentleman, the broiler is about to be turned on. 

 

 

[eyewall]

10 minutes ago, UnionCountyNCWX said:

Ladies and gentleman, the broiler is about to be turned on. 

 

 

So much for the cool and rainy El Nino summer. Looks like our drought could get even worse. This was at Falls Lake yesterday (main sections still have water but even that is looking quite shallow in places):

[olafminesaw]

2 hours ago, UnionCountyNCWX said:

Ladies and gentleman, the broiler is about to be turned on. 

 

 

 

[Snowacane]

2 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

 

F#%K

[olafminesaw]

12 minutes ago, Snowacane said:

F#%K

This gif came to mind

[BooneWX]

On 6/19/2026 at 5:22 PM, BooneWX said:

Through 15 days…. We’ve got problems ahead


.

Taps sign

[eyewall]

Raleigh will put in place level 2 water restrictions once Falls Lake drops to 45% full. According to the graphs at the following link, that happens between 241 and 242 feet. The current forecast suggests that would happen in September but that is basically extrapolation. https://epec.saw.usace.army.mil/falls_summ.htm

[cbmclean]

4 hours ago, eyewall said:

Raleigh will put in place level 2 water restrictions once Falls Lake drops to 45% full. According to the graphs at the following link, that happens between 241 and 242 feet. The current forecast suggests that would happen in September but that is basically extrapolation. https://epec.saw.usace.army.mil/falls_summ.htm

One hopes that before that happens the developing super-ultra-mega-El Nino will break through with a southern stream fire hose.

[GaWx]

13 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

One hopes that before that happens the developing super-ultra-mega-El Nino will break through with a southern stream fire hose.

 The fairly reliable S stream super-Nino fire hose pattern doesn’t typically start til after the end of the active part of the tropical season, i.e. not til November usually.

[eyewall]

Yesterday's rainfall resulted in about a 1 inch rise in Falls Lake water levels. I am guessing it will start dropping again over the next few days.

[SUNYGRAD]

[SUNYGRAD]

High risk not issued very often this far out.  

[SUNYGRAD]

No significant changes with drought in NC with today's update-

[olafminesaw]

July fourth temps are scorching. An appropriate portend these days 

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

July fourth temps are scorching. An appropriate portend these days 

I’d be quite surprised if KATL has a high on 7/4 of 103 and 104 on 7/5 as this (6Z) gfs run shows because of recent good rains there and the tendency for the GFS and to a lesser extent the Euro to be too hot for summer highs in much of the SE outside of RDU. An important variable on how hot it will get will be the amount of rainfall there between now and then. Regardless, heat indices look to be awful either way.

[eyewall]

 

As mentioned the drought has largely remained the same since last week's update. With that said with a brutal heatwave coming, this is likely to worsen again and Falls Lake levels are going to drop some more outside of pop up storms.  May the odds be ever in our favor.

 

 

As mentione

[NorthHillsWx]

This weeks rainfall was helpful as generally 1-2.5” fell across the exceptional drought area though we would need to see repeated systems do the same to see any real progress. Sadly looks to be going back into the fryer this coming week with no signs of additional widespread rains 

[SUNYGRAD]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

I’d be quite surprised if KATL has a high on 7/4 of 103 and 104 on 7/5 as this (6Z) gfs run shows because of recent good rains there and the tendency for the GFS and to a lesser extent the Euro to be too hot for summer highs in much of the SE outside of RDU. An important variable on how hot it will get will be the amount of rainfall there between now and then. Regardless, heat indices look to be awful either way.

I believe the highest temperature ever recorded in Raleigh, North Carolina was 106 °F which occurred just two years on July 5, 2024.

[SUNYGRAD]

I believe an all-time of 104 is in jeopardy in Greensboro either JULY 3rd or the 4th, we shall see-

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

I’d be quite surprised if KATL has a high on 7/4 of 103 and 104 on 7/5 as this (6Z) gfs run shows because of recent good rains there and the tendency for the GFS and to a lesser extent the Euro to be too hot for summer highs in much of the SE outside of RDU. An important variable on how hot it will get will be the amount of rainfall there between now and then. Regardless, heat indices look to be awful either way.

I believe the highest temperature ever recorded in Raleigh, North Carolina was 106 °F which occurred just two years on July 5, 2024.

[eyewall]

The 12z GFS for Juy 4th:

[SUNYGRAD]

Don't recall ever seeing these types of high temps for a large area of NC from any model output in some time.  The foothills in triple digits are rather remarkable and temps in central VA as well. If this was to hold, one might expect the all-time record high 81 F for Mt. Mitchell could be challenged on the GFS.   Grandfather's all-time record high of 83 may be in reach.  Of interest is some remarkable heat waves ----Historic Heat Waves in the Carolinas

[SUNYGRAD]

[Snowacane]

2 hours ago, eyewall said:

The 12z GFS for Juy 4th:

 

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, eyewall said:

The 12z GFS for Juy 4th:

Some of this is almost certainly the GFS doing GFS kinds of things (i.e., too hot especially after day 5). The GFS does this frequently in summer. It could easily be 5-10 F too hot. I’d bet heavily against it being this hot. Quite hot is likely but not this hot.

Edit: the lagging issue here isn’t getting any better. It’s terrible! I’ve been here since it started in 2010 and can’t recall any tech issue worse than this.

@Wow

[Maggie Valley Steve]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Some of this is almost certainly the GFS doing GFS kinds of things (i.e., too hot especially after day 5). The GFS does this frequently in summer. It could easily be 5-10 F too hot. I’d bet heavily against it being this hot. Quite hot is likely but not this hot.

Edit: the lagging issue here isn’t getting any better. It’s terrible! I’ve been here since it started in 2010 and can’t recall any tech issue worse than this.

@Wow 

[JoshM]

Euro is showing 100-105 for most of NC/SC on July 3rd, meanwhile, out west...