Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[BooneWX]

West again on the gfs. Energy coming into Montana. 

[SnowDawg]

1 hour ago, eyewall said:

I’m biased but I’m not sure there are many places in the country that have gotten the shaft over 4-5 straight winters the way that region from NE Ga into the Upstate and foothills has. Especially considering there are many locations in there that had never recorded a winter without snow until going multiple years without, a streak finally broken by a few inches of wet wintry mix last year. I mean I live at around 2000 feet in the north Ga mountains, yet Albany GA has more snow than me over a 4 year stretch. Unfathomable…. We are due a win. 

[SnowDawg]

38 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Fwiw, Eric Webb says he thinks this becomes an overrunning event. Said its January 2014 like...

Last night I was thinking the setup reminded me of January 28 2014. I’d happily take that. If it wants to go ahead and repeat February of 2014 as well I might just cry tears of joy lol

[WXNewton]

10 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

West again on the gfs. Energy coming into Montana. 

Energy def. trending deeper into the Gulf and better organized!

[Met1985]

Looks like it's about to be glory for yall down east.

[Thrasher Fan]

12z GFS

hr 96 has snow flying in Tallahassee

[buckeyefan1]

[CheoahBald1]

Looks like it's about to be glory for yall down east.

We could be in a very good spot ourselves buddy


.

[wncsnow]

Welp that was the run we have been looking for. Would really love to see the Euro trend west

[GaWx]

17 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Last night I was thinking the setup reminded me of January 28 2014. I’d happily take that. If it wants to go ahead and repeat February of 2014 as well I might just cry tears of joy lol

 I remember 1/28/14 originally per models out ~5 days looking to nail coastal areas like mine with a wintry mess and then doing the typical trending NW and reducing coastal area wintry precip. to a lot lower than models had had to a minor event here.

Comparisons of indices for 1/28-9/2014 to progged 1/18/26:

Index…2014….2026

MJO…...6……….….6
PNA….weak +….mod/strong +
EPO….strong -….very strong -
WPO…neutral……….-
NAO….weak +…neutral to weak +
AO…..strong -…..mod -

 So, for those of you who want the NW trend to continue and end up similarly to 2014 (not me obviously), the indices line up pretty similarly to 1/28-9/2014 unfortunately for us deep SE folks and fortunately for ATL-RDU and further NW. The main differences though this time are a stronger +PNA and -EPO (i.e., more impressive W NA ridge) and a -WPO vs neutral then. I don’t know whether or not that would change things much vs the 2014 trend.

 Now I’ll show how much stronger the W ridge/E trough couplet is this time vs 2014:

1/28/14 12Z H5 had 564 Washington/Canadian border and 559 Atlanta:

 

1/18/26 12Z H5 prog 576 Wash/Can border and 546 Atlanta meaning a much more impressive and sharper W ridge/E couplet this time:

[buckeyefan1]

[BooneWX]

1 minute ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Kuchera even higher for some

[buckeyefan1]

2 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Kuchera even higher for some

Indeed  

[CheoahBald1]

Welp that was the run we have been looking for. Would really love to see the Euro trend west

Are you getting excited yet or do we wait on the king?


.

[wncsnow]

Just now, CheoahBald1 said:

Are you getting excited yet or do we wait on the king?


.

Anytime a major model shows 4-6 inches less than 5 days out it's hard to not get a little excited. The Euro getting on board would have me giddy

[WinstonSalemArlington]

8 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

What da helly

[SnowDawg]

9 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I remember 1/28/14 originally per models out ~5 days looking to nail coastal areas like mine with a wintry mess and then doing the typical trending NW and reducing coastal area wintry precip. to a lot lower than models had had to a minor event here.

Comparisons of indices for 1/28-9/2014 to progged 1/18/26:

Index…2014….2026

MJO…...6……….….6
PNA….weak +….mod/strong +
EPO….strong -….very strong -
WPO…neutral……….-
NAO….weak +…neutral to weak +
AO…..strong -…..mod -

 So, for those of you who want the NW trend to continue and end up similarly to 2014 (not me obviously), the indices line up pretty similarly to 1/28-8/2014 unfortunately for us deep SE folks and fortunately for ATL-RDU and further NW. The main differences though this time are a stronger +PNA and -EPO (i.e., more impressive W NA ridge) and a -WPO vs neutral then. I don’t know whether or not that would change things much vs the 2014 trend.

 Now I’ll show how much stronger the W ridge/E trough couplet is this time vs 2014:

1/28/14 12Z H5 had 564 Washington/Canadian border and 559 Atlanta:

 

1/18/26 12Z H5 prog 576 Wash/Can border and 546 Atlanta meaning a much more impressive and sharper W ridge/E couplet this time:

Great info, thanks. I’ll say, I hate feeling like I’m pulling against you guys down south and east cause I know historically speaking you guys get chances way less than we do. But it’s been such a bad stretch up here that I almost need the atmosphere to prove to me that it can still do it for my sanity.

[NorthHillsWx]

Alright west trend was great everyone gets a storm but it can kindly stop now that we’re in the bullseye lol

[Thrasher Fan]

I am rusty... what time does 12z King tip off?

[wncsnow]

Just now, Thrasher Fan said:

I am rusty... what time does 12z King tip off?

12:30

[stormwatcherJ]

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Alerting west trend was great everyone gets a storm but it can kindly stop now that we’re in the bullseye lol

Right? I thought this earlier... with 4-5 days to go, this thing could NW trend all the way to WV/Kentucky! 

[wncsnow]

First we can see what the UK shows here in a few. I feel like it might show a bomb. It has led the way on this so far. 

[WNC_Fort]

Should be able to start recognizing early on these model runs now whether the trend has legs. If the energy is in Montana, we’re game on. 

[wncsnow]

Just now, stormwatcherJ said:

Right? I thought this earlier... with 4-5 days to go, this thing could NW trend all the way to WV/Kentucky! 

Don't think so with all this arctic air to the north pressing down

[stormwatcherJ]

I love to get excited, but no way I'll believe this until we're closer. Too many times I wake up the next morning and someone has posted: aaand it's gone! lol

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[eyewall]

Any further west and we would be in danger of sleet for a time on the GFS run. 

[BooneWX]

1 minute ago, eyewall said:

Any further west and we would be in danger of sleet for a time on the GFS run. 

What are your thoughts on how this shake’s out? Always appreciate your insights 

[Upstate Tiger]

12Z GFS = Boom!

[eyewall]

Just now, BooneWX said:

What are your thoughts on how this shake’s out? Always appreciate your insights 

Right now I think it is very plausible we see something out of this but I will caution that the warm nose almost always overpeforms and makes it farther inland than modeled. The pattern looks like it will be there but as always we live and die by the warm nose.