January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GFS compared to OZ. Time to book your eastern shore hotel room...

[Solution Man]

Look at AIGFS

[CAPE]

Some fairly subtle changes at h5 on the 6z GFS results in a somewhat better outcome. Have to wait and see if this is a 'trend' or just the typical run to run differences we tend to see at this range.

[Weather Will]

2 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Look at AIGFS

Time to book your hotel room in Bermuda.

[Weather Will]

Unless the EURO/ AI start shifting back NW, it really is an eastern zones threat if anything.

[mitchnick]

That precip field of snow from SE VA northeast along the coast through ENE missing most to the east seen on many models is eerily similar to Boxing Day to my weenie eyes. So there is precedence for that debacle. 

[Roger Smith]

Verbatim the 06z GFS is a crusher for s.e. VA probably 24-36 inches and only analogue I know about would be March 1-2, 1980. I believe that one gave DC area 5-10"  and cut off in s.e. PA to ACY. Stalled, looped and went off towards Newfoundland. Northeast states stayed dry and very cold (record cold in fact)

Disclaimer -- not my forecast for what this will actually do, just a p.b.p. of the model run.  

[Terpeast]

Not a good sign if the Euro shifted away. Still giving it a day or so, though. With such a delicate setup and lots of moving parts, a lot can happen in shorter lead times.

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EPS

[Ji]

Is there any chance this could not dig as far south as being shown?

The pac ridge could be overdone a bit?

[mitchnick]

Gefs 5H improved. Whether it translates into more snow we'll soon find out. 

[Disc]

Some nukes showing up in the individuals on the 6z GEFS. 

[mitchnick]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Gefs 5H improved. Whether it translates into more snow we'll soon find out. 

 

[aldie 22]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

Is there any chance this could not dig as far south as being shown?

The pac ridge could be overdone a bit?

Im already feeling out back this way...you might still have a shot but you have seen this one before...prepare yourself today for the trend. Hopefully im wrong because that happens often but all of those maps look familiar to me.

[aldie 22]

3 minutes ago, Disc said:

Some nukes showing up in the individuals on the 6z GEFS. 

13 and 20 are ok

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

 

More neutral tilt.  I think 

[mitchnick]

The 120hrs Gefs 5H looks decent, but when you put it into motion, it's moving ENE which is definitely not what was shown on the big hits. But we're still 96hrs out. 

[mitchnick]

I've gotta turn off auto correct because it's messing up every post. Idiot tech people.

[GreyHat]

Thursday will be the day just like the past storm. Data gets injested and things go from good to worse.

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, GreyHat said:

Thursday will be the day just like the past storm. Data gets injested and things go from good to worse.

 How do u know they get worse?

[CAPE]

6z mean isn't bad. Better than 0z.

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

6z mean isn't bad. Better than 0z.

Yes

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z EURO AI no change.

[GreyHat]

20 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

 How do u know they get worse?

No one does, but this last storm showed big hits lots of snow for the area. Once data start getting injested things changed from big snows to a lot of sleet and freezing rain.

What did the models for this storm? Something this far out big hits of snow and now moving to more ENE. 

Just my observation 

 

[Rnt1969]

I think we need the h5 to close off and not be neutral but negative to hit dc to Boston. Just not gonna get there. This has happened in the past where cape May got 2 feet and Philly got nothing. So close. This one is gonna sting


.

[CAPE]

Natty Blend. Damn.

[RevWarReenactor]

Anyway-anything else to track after this? Serious question.

[LeesburgWx]

I’m going to be sick if Norfolk gets 2 feet and we had to get sleet slop on top of a few inches of snow. I feel this slipping away. Still time but it’s almost out now

[mitchnick]

Comparing currently updating 6z Euro at 36hrs with 6z yesterday, the last great run.

[Solution Man]

We just need somewhat of an improvement for now.