January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[stormtracker]

Somebody go drag that High 1000 miles WNW

[stormtracker]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Are we looking at the same cmc?

He always jumps the gun.  He's getting better but man....

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Think I’ll take the under on 1055 on that high

Why do you say?

[bncho]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Are we looking at the same cmc?  Because I see an arctic fropa

It's better. It's not good.

[bncho]

Just now, stormtracker said:

He always jumps the gun.  He's getting better but man....

You gotta bully me more man

[Ji]

He always jumps the gun.  He's getting better but man....

He should stick to crayons and happy meals for a few more years

[Terpeast]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Why do you say?

Rare to have >1050 highs. Even 1040 highs aren’t all that common

[stormtracker]

CMC/GFS is a NC weenie dream.  See yall in an hour for the Euro.  Comes out lighting fast for me, so we'll popping champagne by 12:45

[Interstate]

Swing and a miss

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

You gotta bully me more man

Nah.  You're actually getting better.  You've moved from bully status to just trollable 

[bncho]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Rare to have >1050 highs. Even 1040 highs aren’t all that common

Which do you think is more likely? A GFS AI overamp or a GFS ultra supression

[Ji]

CMC/GFS is a NC weenie dream.  See yall in an hour for the Euro.  Comes out lighting fast for me, so we'll popping champagne by 12:45

It’s amazing how well the models did tonight to avoid snow for the area

[Terpeast]

Going to sleep now, y’all take the euro. I think we’re starting to see models diverging as they usually do between 5-7 days out, and then they’ll re-converge closer to a final solution at around 4 days, which takes us to Wed-Thur. 

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Nah.  You're actually getting better.  You've moved from bully status to just trollable 

Don’t give him a hat yet

[Weather Will]

Anyone know verification scores for the GDPS Parallel?  It looked good at 12Z.  OZ not out yet.

[Ji]

Rare to have >1050 highs. Even 1040 highs aren’t all that common

Pd 2003 was like 1051 at one point

[wxdude64]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Which do you think is more likely? A GFS AI overamp or a GFS ultra supression

yes

[anotherman]

Pd 2003 was like 1051 at one point

I remember being in New England for that one and everyone thought it would stay south. Until it didn’t.

[winter_warlock]

As always Randy ty for the PBP brother!!!

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Anyone know verification scores for the GDPS Parallel?  It looked good at 12Z.  OZ not out yet.

Is that the AI canadian?

[Ji]

I remember being in New England for that one and everyone thought it would stay south. Until it didn’t.

That was a dream storm. Heavy snow came in like nothing I’d seen before with temps at 14 lol

[anotherman]

That was a dream storm. Heavy snow came in like nothing I’d seen before with temps at 14 lol

When we got home to Maryland it was like a war zone. There were whole lanes of the Baltimore beltway that were not plowed.

[stormtracker]

I know this is a weenie saying and I'm definitely one, but I seriously don't mind not being in the bullseye at this point

[Ji]

I know this is a weenie saying and I'm definitely one, but I seriously don't mind not being in the bullseye at this point

We don’t even know who’s in the bullseye

[Ji]

When we got home to Maryland it was like a war zone. There were whole lanes of the Baltimore beltway that were not plowed.

We would have got 40 inches but we wasted an inch of qpf on sleet

[stormtracker]

Just now, Ji said:

We don’t even know who’s in the bullseye

lol.

We're either 1 or 10 with shit like this.  I'm cool with this map tho.  Shows all the possibilities and we're still in the game.

[nj2va]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

We would have got 40 inches but we wasted an inch of qpf on sleet

I thought you were going to bed

[ravensrule]

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I thought you were going to bed

His poor mattress. 

[wxdude64]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

We don’t even know who’s in the bullseye

LOL, about as wide a spread as possible between the models. We may get rain, we may get 20 inches of snow or we could get sun and -10 degrees. Perfect. 

[Weather Will]

6 minutes ago, bncho said:

Is that the AI canadian?

I think it is their latest version, but don't know details.