January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[bncho]

4 minutes ago, jayyy said:

AIFS ensemble mean is lit up. Lord

There are like 6-7 members that show 20"+ of snow @SnowenOutThere

[Paleocene]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

There are like 6-7 members that show 20"+ of snow @SnowenOutThere

Those are rookie numbers. We need twenty members with 30" or more for goonfest 2026

[bncho]

Just now, Paleocene said:

Those are rookie numbers. We need twenty members with 30" or more for goonfest 2026

@SnowenOutThere and I will ruin this thread if this isn't stopped in the next 48 hours. This is your last warning. 

[GreyHat]

10 minutes ago, jayyy said:

AIFS ensemble mean is lit up. Lord

The ones you don't trust especially that far out. AI is bias due to the programmer that provide input during its build. Wait till 2 days away. Unless you live on disappointments.

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

The ones you don't trust especially that far out. AI is bias due to the programmer that provide input during its build. Wait till 2 days away. Unless you live on disappointments.

So... when are ya coming back? Sunday or Monday?

[Scraff]

58 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Lemme catch you up:

there was a 5-10” storm on the 18z gfs… It’ll disappear in about 3 hours on the next OP run and weenies will jump off ledges. Meanwhile, Cape bashes his head into a wall for having to repeat that people should be looking at ensembles this far out.

You’re caught up. Now go drink

Beautifully said. Thank you, sir. Now I must go back to watching Emily in Paris with my wife…while pre-gaming Oz with a few triple IPAs from RAR. Carry on! I’ll be back soon or passed out. Too early to call. 

[bncho]

I can't tell who's worse, @GreyHat or @Ji.

[stormtracker]

20 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

The ones you don't trust especially that far out. AI is bias due to the programmer that provide input during its build. Wait till 2 days away. Unless you live on disappointments.

You came back Sunday and didn't tell us, didn't you?

[mitchnick]

55 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Looks alike a healthy cold front approaching at the end with some snow associated with a wave along it. Sure its a bit warmish out in front as it always is in these cases, but nothing 'good' was expected until just beyond this time.

 

It's very warmish. 18z had us in the mid and Upper 40's and 12z had us in the mid to upper 30's. I couldn't explain my post because I was walking into a meeting. 12z had a 1-2" event for many, but with temps 10 degrees warmer, hence my comment that it fooked us.

[Ji]

I can't tell who's worse, [mention=22944]GreyHat[/mention] or [mention=514]Ji[/mention].

Ji

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Ji

Acceptance is part of the process 

[87storms]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

I actually almost always say that in my head when reading it 

[Weather Will]

Just now, 87storms said:

I actually almost always say that in my head when reading it 

They are also my actual initials....:)

[stormtracker]

4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

They are also my actual initials....:)

William Eeyore Blizzard

[SnowenOutThere]

41 minutes ago, bncho said:

There are like 6-7 members that show 20"+ of snow @SnowenOutThere

33 minutes ago, bncho said:

@SnowenOutThere and I will ruin this thread if this isn't stopped in the next 48 hours. This is your last warning. 

This is ragebait. Don't make me delete the appreciating posters thread. 

[Solution Man]

30 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

The ones you don't trust especially that far out. AI is bias due to the programmer that provide input during its build. Wait till 2 days away. Unless you live on disappointments.

TopHat, I need you to stand up and walk over to the box that handles all your feeds. There’s a switch behind or in front of it. Press it to the off position and step away. Remain standing there until further notice.

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

It's very warmish. 18z had us in the mid and Upper 40's and 12z had us in the mid to upper 30's. I couldn't explain my post because I was walking into a meeting. 12z had a 1-2" event for many, but with temps 10 degrees warmer, hence my comment that it fooked us.

Op runs flip flop around- its just the nature of deterministic guidance 4+ days out. Check out the 18z ens mean. Low 40s with SW flow ahead of a major cold front is exactly what is expected in mid winter. The "good" period(we hope) begins just beyond this.

[mitchnick]

21 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Op runs flip flop around- its just the nature of deterministic guidance 4+ days out. Check out the 18z ens mean. Low 40s with SW flow ahead of a major cold front is exactly what is expected in mid winter. The "good" period(we hope) begins just beyond this.

I'm not disagreeing per se, there were some other comments and I  just wanted to explain my brief post. To jump 10 degrees from 12z was enough to fook us was my only point. But, it'll be different come 0z, so fook it again!

[snowfan]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Looks alike a healthy cold front approaching at the end with some snow associated with a wave along it. Sure its a bit warmish out in front as it always is in these cases, but nothing 'good' was expected until just beyond this time.

 

Looks sexy for my visit to Canaan next weekend

[bncho]

1 hour ago, Solution Man said:

TopHat, I need you to stand up and walk over to the box that handles all your feeds. There’s a switch behind or in front of it. Press it to the off position and step away. Remain standing there until further notice.

That's a wonderful solution, man! 

[stormtracker]

ICON has a decent look at 180

[stormtracker]

Well.  Here we go.  Friday night and we watching the GFS.  What a life.

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Well.  Here we go.  Friday night and we watching the GFS.  What a life.

We're obsessed bro !! 

[Scraff]

I can’t believe I’m not face down in the gutter. But here we are! Bring it home @stormtracker

[stormtracker]

Just now, Scraff said:

I can’t believe I’m not face down in the gutter. But here we are! Bring it home @stormtracker

imma try friend.  We need a morale booster 

[stormtracker]

Nothing really jumpin out so far.   I'm enjoying a gin martini.  3rd one. How yall doing?

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Nothing really jumpin out so far.   I'm enjoying a gin martini.  3rd one. How yall doing?

[stormtracker]

Kinda comical how the GFS h5 can change from run to run in under 100 hours.  Euro kinda remains rock steady.   But anyway, some changes upstairs, but seems minor.

[stormtracker]

GFS seems more "smooshed" (scientific term) with the precip so far for the 23rd thing so far

[stormtracker]

Again, comical with the h5 differences vs 18z. Let's see where this goes