January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[DDweatherman]

It’s really all because of the GL energy. Without that or of course with a phase in, we’d be in biz. 

[Steve25]

1 hour ago, anotherman said:

That was at 3:00 AM

And…? You think one run of the 6z GFS made him flip his entire narrative from the past few days? 

[yoda]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

It’s really all because of the GL energy. Without that or of course with a phase in, we’d be in biz. 

I dunno... maybe this is more for SNE... but Will said this just now

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

If we can get that MN kicker s/w to keep digging west, that is going to help. You want to do anything to help the southern vort gain latitude without sacrificing too much eastward longitude. NAM is digging it further west which was good…not that the NAM is good, but that’s what you’ll want to see on other model guidance. 

 

[mitchnick]

Didn't someone post the list of model accuracy stats that had the EpsAI on top, or near the top? Anyway, here's the 6z slp positions from it...we're wasting our time if it's near or at the top of the list for accuracy. 

[Ji]

I hate everyone and everything

[mitchnick]

Just now, Ji said:

I hate everyone and everything

Ok, but when you leave, don't forget to take your diaper bag.

[bncho]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

I hate everyone and everything

who cares about what you think

[ravensrule]

36 minutes ago, bncho said:

you've been WHAT about?

 

30 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Somebody forgot to blow on the Cartridge. 

OH BOY. I'm like a kid in a candy store. 

[Dabuckeyes]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

I hate everyone and everything

And yet this post is allowed…

[dailylurker]

12 minutes ago, Ji said:

I hate everyone and everything

You really need to get off the keyboard and go get yourself some snow. I'll be on the Tug in a week or so. What's your kink? Snow on snow? Snow falling super hard? Snow flakes tickling your nipples? Dark digital blue? The Tug can do it all for you lol

[soadforecasterx]

Icon looks to be a step back, kicker is keeping things more positively tilted. 

[yoda]

I'll take me some 12z RGEM 

[mitchnick]

Just now, yoda said:

I'll take me some 12z RGEM 

Yeah. Just gunna' say...

[mitchnick]

Rgem's a hit on Saturday with front and coastal. But not huge it doesn't appear.

[Terpeast]

I'm just as annoyed as the next guy at the pull back in trends, but in this case I don't think the GL low is to blame. If it were an arctic high, I think it would be even more suppressive/OTS. 

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Rgem's a hit on Saturday with front and coastal. But not huge it doesn't appear.

Its a 1-2" for some... mostly Sunday morning 

[stormy]

1 hour ago, 87storms said:

True. Last storm helped a bit, but the general theme is the same.

After the 1.20" of rain last week, my rate of fall leveled off a little.

For a 7 day period from 12-19 to 12-26 , my water table dropped .73 Ft.

For the 7 day period from 1-08 to 1-15 my water table only dropped .43 Ft.

Glorious drought mitigation!!!     1.20" last week was 12% of rainfall needed. 

[stormtracker]

So at 18 notice just an ass hair bit of ridging out ahead vs 6z.  It's noticeable, but nothing huge so far

[stormtracker]

Backside of the forming trof out west is a bit more wester.  But again, nothing to get excited about so far

[TSSN+]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Backside of the forming trof out west is a bit more wester.  But again, nothing to get excited about so far

 Not even sure if that’s the issue anymore it’s what does the so called kicker do to that energy as it moves east. 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

 Not even sure if that’s the issue anymore it’s what does the so called kicker do to that energy as it moves east. 

Yeah, just describing what's going on.  I don't really even know what we need (other than a miracle) to do this tbh

[TSSN+]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Yeah, just describing what's going on.  I don't really even know what we need to do this tbh

50 Hail Marys

[Alfoman]

Virtually no differences from 6Z thru 51 hrs on GFS

[stormtracker]

Not seeing any meaningful differences so far at the sfc.   I'm at hour 63 btw

[stormtracker]

If anything it's a hair flatter out front. 

[stormtracker]

Next

[DDweatherman]

Next folks. The pattern later next week is our best chance of the year; and probably with a simpler recipe to win. Overrunning type of setups. 

[TSSN+]

Still got the aigfs haha this supposed to be about better version of gfs? Cause it’s probably worse. 

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

gfs is kaka

[DDweatherman]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Still got the aigfs haha this supposed to be about better version of gfs? Cause it’s probably worse. 

 

All versions of the GFasS aren’t great.