January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[winter_warlock]

Just now, stormtracker said:

If GFS keeps leading the way, a 50-75 mile jog N and W isn't crazy.  I like the slow trends till game day tbh.

 GFS kinda trending to what it showed for that day about 5 days ago if I remember correctly!

[WeatherGeek2025]

cmc?

[T. August]

Glad the gfs doubled down on the track/orientation of precip. Need GEFS to have more hits, and having the euro mildly enthused would be great.

[Amped]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

cmc?

Looks good for a few inches assuming thats snow.

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

The CMC always matches the RGEM so I’d be shocked if it doesn’t at least make a play for a light event in DC

yeah, it looks like the RGEM. Snow maps have about an inch or so at 90

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

You looking at an old run bud? 

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

The CMC always matches the RGEM so I’d be shocked if it doesn’t at least make a play for a light event in DC

My bad I misinterpreted the maps. Frankly I thought that with the CMC consolidating a vort max north of where we would prefer it would kill the storm and crush it. Instead of just sorta didn’t matter too much. Either way I believe there’s a lot of potential left on the table with its run. I do apologize though. 

[Solution Man]

Just now, stormtracker said:

yeah, it looks like the RGEM

We need Dr. No to come aboard

[bncho]

Every single bit of the GFS's snow output is sticking and turning into glacier

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

yeah, it looks like the RGEM

It’s weird with it being mixy here then blows more to the NE 

 

[winter_warlock]

Just now, bncho said:

Every single bit of the GFS's snow output is sticking and turning into glacier

I like that!! No chance of any mixing or the dreaded rain/snow line!!

[Scraff]

So here’s a question. When is it that we can actually start to trust the garbage GooFuS? I feel like it’s about in its wheelhouse from here on out?

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

We need Dr. No to come aboard

I'm not even going to hope with the Euro.  It never does what we want and if it does, it'll be closer to game time.

[Ji]

I'm not even going to hope with the Euro.  It never does what we want and if it does, it'll be closer to game time.

Nothing is more stubborn more than that sob model

[Ralph Wiggum]

So what is our least snowiest model attm? Euro? Just curious 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Scraff said:

So here’s a question. When is it that we can actually start to trust the garbage GooFuS? I feel like it’s about in its wheelhouse from here on out?

When other models agree lol. CMC close that’s a start let’s see ukmet and euro come in as well. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

When other models agree lol. CMC close that’s a start let’s see ukmet and euro come in as well. 

Yeah it's just plain old looking to see if there's agreement. And this evening that has moved in a positive direction

[Ji]

This looks very similar to what it was showing 7 days ago when we were tracking storm number 1

[WEATHER53]

21 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Nice moisture in the Gulf

Wow that’s an ages old remembrance of cold air plunging and something gets going around tx/la and moves  right toward us like that purple is pointing to 

[NorthArlington101]

GEFS is might be a smack down. Already crushing the SE…

[bncho]

GEFS is almost 3" for DC 

 

[bncho]

0z GEFS wow

[winter_warlock]

Oh crap. After seeing the GFS.. now I gotta wait up for the euro lol..   looks like I'll be  groggy at work tomorrow!!!  Ahh the pains of being a weather nut!!!

[WEATHER53]

6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

GEFS is might be a smack down. Already crushing the SE…

Is that gulf moisture trying to connect to pacific ?

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

0z GEFS wow

Wow that is an improvement over 18z GEFS!!

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, winter_warlock said:

Oh crap. After seeing the GFS.. now I gotta wait up for the euro lol..   looks like I'll be  groggy at work tomorrow!!!  Ahh the pains of being a weather nut!!!

Hey at least it runs a half hour earlier now, lol

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, winter_warlock said:

Oh crap. After seeing the GFS.. now I gotta wait up for the euro lol..   looks like I'll be  groggy at work tomorrow!!!  Ahh the pains of being a weather nut!!!

Go to bed happy now. 

[winter_warlock]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Hey at least it runs a half hour earlier now, lol

Well that a lil better !!  I'll have to get the real potent coffee in the morning !!

[winter_warlock]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Go to bed happy now. 

Yessir!!!!

[T. August]

26 minutes ago, T. August said:

Glad the gfs doubled down on the track/orientation of precip. Need GEFS to have more hits, and having the euro mildly enthused would be great.

Alright step #1 complete. Number of 2”+ hits dramatically increased, while retaining a few big dogs too. Nice to see that upper end still exists.

[NorthArlington101]

UKIE making the right moves through 72