January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[winter_warlock]

People probably won't agree, but to me is seemed like models were more accurate about 15 years ago compared to now. But that's just me

[stormtracker]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

I-70 across Kansas or even Ohio is what comes to mind. 

Try I-95 from Emporia to South of the Border. I kinda wanna wreck on purpose every time I go down to see my mom. 

[winter_warlock]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I’m on a phone so I could be totally wrong.  I think we all can agree, NAM doesn’t mean shit. 

  well ur right about that Randy!!! Especially the nam at 84 hours is total crap !! 

[Kmlwx]

2 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

People probably won't agree, but to me is seemed like models were more accurate about 15 years ago compared to now. But that's just me

The data argues you are wrong. It could be that general patterns are more chaotic right now and that previously, models have KNOWN biases whereas now it's sort of just as likely to bust in any direction. But this opinion has been debunked plenty of times. The models were NOT more accurate 15 years ago. 

[LP08]

 

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I’m on a phone so I could be totally wrong.  I think we all can agree, NAM doesn’t mean shit. 

definitely wasn’t saying one or the other was correct. Someone said it looked like the gfs so I had to look.  Yes the ridge out west may be a smidge taller, but in the grand scheme of things, the larger scale trough was progressive and not what we would need.

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Try I-95 from Emporia to South of the Border. I kinda wanna wreck on purpose every time I go down to see my mom. 

Made that drive too many damn times, including about 3 in 2025. I’d argue all the way to Savannah. You almost feel a sense of relief once you get off SC’s loud ass highway in need of a resurfacing. 

[CAPE]

18z GFS has begun rolling. Most important run of our weenie lives.

[winter_warlock]

4 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

The data argues you are wrong. It could be that general patterns are more chaotic right now and that previously, models have KNOWN biases whereas now it's sort of just as likely to bust in any direction. But this opinion has been debunked plenty of times. The models were NOT more accurate 15 years ago. 

Oh ok I had no idea that  the opinion was debunked.  Maybe it's just the fact we had more storms back then us throwing me off . But either way thanks for the correction! 

[Kmlwx]

1 minute ago, winter_warlock said:

Oh ok I had no idea that  the opinion was debunked.  Maybe it's just the fact we had more storms back then us throwing me off . But either way thanks for the correction! 

It could be a myriad of things. But also - things that are on like decadal cycles may be to blame. Consider that the modeling tends to be more stable at range for southern stream dominant systems. For many years now there has been a lot of northern stream influence - which the models objectively (not subjectively) are worse at predicting.

[eduggs]

2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

It could be a myriad of things. But also - things that are on like decadal cycles may be to blame. Consider that the modeling tends to be more stable at range for southern stream dominant systems. For many years now there has been a lot of northern stream influence - which the models objectively (not subjectively) are worse at predicting.

Anything beyond 5 days was long range 15 years ago. There were fewer publicly available models, some of which ran only once or twice a day. Most people viewed models on the NCEP site instead of 3rd party vendors where you can quickly toggle between models & runs. Social media was also in its infancy. 

[stormtracker]

GFS H5 basically the same thru 60

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Anything beyond 5 days was long range 15 years ago. There were fewer publicly available models, some of which ran only once or twice a day. Most people viewed models on the NCEP site instead of 3rd party vendors where you can quickly toggle between models & runs. Social media was also in its infancy. 

Related to this, you also didn't have all the various derived fields, etc., that these vendors now have.

[Jrlg1181]

52 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Holy shit this needs to be tagged/pinned for all to remember. Pedro Serrano would sacrifice ji instead of a live chicken. 

Actually work with a Pedro Serrano...

[stormtracker]

Same thru 69 

69 heheheh

[87storms]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

Anything beyond 5 days was long range 15 years ago. There were fewer publicly available models, some of which ran only once or twice a day. Most people viewed models on the NCEP site instead of 3rd party vendors where you can quickly toggle between models & runs. Social media was also in its infancy. 

Yea we don’t really get the crazy surprise storms anymore. The models also do a better job at drying up northern stream systems as they cross the mountains. Those types of systems were a source of busts back in the day. One of the presentations at the AMS in New Orleans mentioned how there’s gradual improvements in modeling even up to day 10.

[stormtracker]

So far, so good thru 84

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

59 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Holy shit this needs to be tagged/pinned for all to remember. Pedro Serrano would sacrifice ji instead of a live chicken. 

Is very bad to drink JI-bu's rum!  Is very bad!

[Interstate]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Same thru 69 

69 heheheh

looks flatter to me on the H5 map

[T. August]

Just now, stormtracker said:

So far, so good thru 84

Lowkey might be better

[bncho]

GFS looks pretty damn good

 

[stormtracker]

So now, just a tad flatter out front

[TSSN+]

That h5 energy euro had and gfs didn’t is now there so this probably is dead. But we shall see 

[87storms]

So somewhere between pretty damn good and awful?

[stormtracker]

Still a decent swath of snow 96-99

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

That h5 energy euro had and gfs didn’t is now there so this probably is dead. But we shall see 

It's fine, maybe a smidge drier

[CAPE]

[stormtracker]

Actually a good bit drier, 

EDIT..for DC S and E.   I don't have the accumulation maps, so well see

[Interstate]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

So now, just a tad flatter out front

but when I say it... I get three X just like the family Feud... lol

[TSSN+]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Actually a good bit drier, 

Ya not the trend wanted upstairs 

[Shad]

hammers eastern VA.....not buying it at all unfortunately