January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[LP08]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

GFS may be up to something here for the Cape timeframe..

H5 looks sweet

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

GFS may be up to something here for the Cape timeframe..

It’s snowing folks 

[stormtracker]

Yeah, GFS develops something...a bit disorganized but we have snow over the area

[Alfoman]

God this is gonna sting like a b*** when its all taken away by tomorrow

[TSSN+]

Hello 

 

[winter_warlock]

Just now, Alfoman said:

God this is gonna sting like a b*** when its all taken away by tomorrow

Great post thanks

[stormtracker]

It's actually not a bad hit.  Nothing huge, but...modest. 2 to 5 thing.

 

EDIT: got a lil better with the name frame.  

[baltosquid]

Fan of this run. Just glad to see a coastal pop like that in the vicinity. Digital snow for this is worthless at this range. Establish the feature first, then reel it in. The storm a few days later is a great look too.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

It's actually not a bad hit.  Nothing huge, but...modest. 2 to 5 thing.

 

EDIT: got a lil better with the name frame.  

At this point 2-5” is a HECS 

[NorthArlington101]

[winter_warlock]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

 Not bad at all!!

[bncho]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

you get the honors for the snow map this time

[NorthArlington101]

[Eskimo Joe]

HR216-222 on the 12z GFS has a solid banana high and decent western ridge at 500mb. Key ingredients for cold air. Very happy to see this.

[stormy]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Hello 

 

This is just right!!   I told my newsletter crowd yesterday afternoon that Sat or Sun., 17th or 18th, was the first genuine threat!!!!!!!!!!

[mitchnick]

27 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Hope I'm wrong, but at 129hrs it just looks like a cold front. Maybe Euro is right with the 19th?

Ok, Euro says 19th and Gfs says 18th. Lol

[Eskimo Joe]

Everyone wins with the 1/18 event on the 12z GFS. No rain/snow line. A solid, plowable snowfall on a holiday weekend.

[winter_warlock]

Not bad at all for 200 hours out!!!

[IronTy]

12Z GFS gets it done for the 18th.  Yay.  

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

This oughta' send JI into a fit of rage.

[SnowenOutThere]

Gotta love the GFS

[SnowenOutThere]

Also think that the CMC looks like it might get a hit at the end of its run. 

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Now only have to hold or improve for over a week. What could go wrong?… ducks 

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Also think that the CMC looks like it might get a hit at the end of its run. 

It's loaded for sure

[psuhoffman]

I have nothing to add regarding any of the specific threats, they are all too far out for me to waste time on run to run permutations.  But my general thoughts regarding the overall pattern is that it's been pretty rare for us to time up a good h5 pattern with our snowiest climo period (which is by far mid Jan to mid Feb).  One of our problems, among many, over the last 10 years as been that our best chances for snow have come outside that period.  We've been fighting for scraps along the edges of the cold season in many years.  Right now the pattern across all guidance for the second half of January looks very favorable.  It's supported by tropical forcing.  If we get an extended cold pattern from mid January into Feb I'll take my chances.  It won't help us with the STJ, we're going to have to deal with phasing and NS issues and it will still be a struggle, but one we have a much better chance of winning if we get a good pattern timed up during our snowiest climo period.  

[baltosquid]

CMC was wester with the gulf piece but NS did not cooperate and it was too positive. Hopeful it can evolve positively from there though.

[TSSN+]

Just now, baltosquid said:

CMC was wester with the gulf piece but NS did not cooperate and it was too positive. Hopeful it can evolve positively from there though.

Ya it’s like a cold front but does have a thick snow band haha 

[TSSN+]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

This oughta' send JI into a fit of rage.

Not hard to do 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Ya it’s like a cold front but does have a thick snow band haha 

It strings out the energy, way too far out to worry about that 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Ya it’s like a cold front but does have a thick snow band haha