January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[NorthArlington101]

Still climbing north at 273

[wxdude64]

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Bob Chill special so far.  plenty cold enough from him and up to us.

 

5 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

If only he still lived in Rockville. 

 

4 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Or in North Central Md 

So @Bob Chillmoved and took the snow with him?

[bncho]

its going to slide

[anotherman]

I'm surprised it stays so cold. Maybe models will pick up on -NAO, since we've had 4 straight months with NAO of -0.65 or lower. Also a weak 50/50 low for the Day 10 storm on GFS

You mean disappointed?

[stormtracker]

So far about 6 -8 and still going

[clskinsfan]

You want overrun? Here it is. Right on the boundary. Too far out to even hope it is right. But this is the way to do it.

I cant get the shit to paste for some reason. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=isen290K&runtime=2026010900&fh=246

[stormtracker]

8-10 just south of us includes Fredericksburg

[bncho]

Total 4-8 for Baltimore, 6-10 for DC, 12+ fredricksburg south

[stormtracker]

Done at 285.  We can only hope to be so lucky.

That was fun...now let's get out of fantasy land and try to wrangle the first thing.

[Solution Man]

She’s sliding out, but we take

[Ji]

8-10 just south of us includes Fredericksburg

Lol play by play of a storm starting at 240

[wxdude64]

Just now, stormtracker said:

8-10 just south of us includes Fredericksburg

Acceptable. Now we only have to wait 10 days, or until next run.

[stormtracker]

Just now, bncho said:

4-8 for Baltimore, 6-10 for DC, 12+ fredricksburg south

only 10-12 days away!

[winter_warlock]

Just now, bncho said:

Total 4-8 for Baltimore, 6-10 for DC, 12+ fredricksburg south

That would be the biggest storm I've had here in years 

[stormtracker]

Just now, Ji said:

Lol play by play of a storm starting at 240

I know right? Like this is some type of forum for such things.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, bncho said:

Total 4-8 for Baltimore, 6-10 for DC, 12+ fredricksburg south

Even though I'd love the 4-8...man that would still hurt...good thing it's fantasy!

[Stormchaserchuck1]

10 minutes ago, anotherman said:

You mean disappointed?

Let's see how it trends next few days. I don't think it's a frigid airmass although the timing is good with West coast ridge retrograding up through western Canada and Alaska. Those High pressures dropping down are pretty serious. I just don't know that it will be that good of a H5 pattern.. although since August it has been cooler in the east so maybe there is more going for this Winter. Also Winter -AO tendency with major -SLP in the arctic 60-90N during this past warm season (correlation good since 2012). 

[bncho]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Lol play by play of a storm starting at 240

it's okay since it's from the most reliable, non-volatile, non-snow bias model the GFS

[ravensrule]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

Total 4-8 for Baltimore, 6-10 for DC, 12+ fredricksburg south

That would be my biggest storm since 2016.

[winter_warlock]

The GFS model..... It's right 30%of the time... All the time

[wxdude64]

1 minute ago, winter_warlock said:

The GFS model..... It's right 30%of the time... All the time

So 50% less than normal

[cbmclean]

9 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Carolinas getting mauled

We're pretty bad at winter maulings.  We're better at mewlings.

[wxdude64]

3 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

That would be my biggest storm since 2016.

I've been lucky a few times in last 6-7 years. I'm hoping for an AREA WIDE major hit, it is needed. 

[ravensrule]

Just now, wxdude64 said:

I've been lucky a few times in last 6-7 years. I'm hoping for an AREA WIDE major hit, it is needed. 

Unfortunately it’s been brutal here the last 10 years. We desperately need a good 8-12” storm. 

[Ji]

it's okay since it's from the most reliable, non-volatile, non-snow bias model the GFS

That Mitch west is going to be insufferable tomorrow

Epic and historic

[Ji]

That would be my biggest storm since 2016.

What are we doing then man?

[Ji]

Im going to do a weather will

Here is gfs ai at same time

[cbmclean]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

What are we doing then man?

I wouldn't worry about it.  

[clskinsfan]

Jesus. I just liked one of Chuck's posts. WTF is happening here?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

If that -AO ridging occurs and trends over Greenland, the massive N. Atlantic trough will be in range of a 50/50 low. That's our hope for that Day 10 storm.. trend toward more -NAO/-AO in the medium range.