Weather Will Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 WB 18Z EURO AI has a trough next weekend that is digging further south this run.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Definitely a west shift on GEFS vs 12z. More like 6z, but a sharper trough. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Euro looks alot better---why 18z only goes out to 144 is a mystery 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 5 minutes ago, Ji said: Euro looks alot better---why 18z only goes out to 144 is a mystery I hate to disagree. Too far west and rounder. I prefer 12z look. EDIT: Looks pretty different on the surface too. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 12z on top, 18z below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I hate to disagree. Too far west and rounder. I prefer 12z look. EDIT: Looks pretty different on the surface too. different better or worse or well never know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, Ji said: different better or worse or well never know? That could be more of a timing difference. Hard to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I hate to disagree. Too far west and rounder. I prefer 12z look. i dunno...to me the further west it is..the more time it has to develop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Eps. 12z on top Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: That could be more of a timing difference. Hard to say. Yeah, it's kinda hard to tell for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 25 minutes ago, Ji said: Euro looks alot better---why 18z only goes out to 144 is a mystery For the euro and it being only 144 out that’s a pretty big difference at h5. Won’t get a good idea on the set up for another few days anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 19 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I hate to disagree. Too far west and rounder. I prefer 12z look. EDIT: Looks pretty different on the surface too. Find myself kinda seeing Ji's point on this one. But I don't know shit, so you're prob right. Seems as tho the swing back further west would give it more time climb closer up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 I also use words like wester and swirlie thing in pbp, so yeah. Mitch is prob right. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 @mitchnick’s EPS is definitely a small step back at 18z. Only slight positive improvement is the northern stream in Canada is farther ahead than 12z. But our trough is obviously flatter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: @mitchnick’s EPS is definitely a small step back at 18z. Only slight positive improvement is the northern stream in Canada is farther ahead than 12z. But our trough is obviously flatter. Yep. I'm thinking Eps reflecting the flatter "mess" of 18z. But we're far enough out to get too concerned. We do need to see 0z come back to a stronger, more consolidated vort imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 hour ago, Ji said: man--if this went negative just a few ticks earlier/more west The upper levels dont support it going negative sooner. Not saying that map is correct because it is most likely not close to what will actually happen. But there are is really no upper level jet that would cause it to wrap up. Its pretty dead up top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just now, mitchnick said: Yep. I'm thinking Eps reflecting the flatter "mess" of 18z. But we're far enough out to get too concerned. We do need to see 0z come back to a stronger, more consolidated vort imho. I think we're far enough out that people shouldn't vest one way or the other with this thing. But, we all know how it goes here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 To me the most important thing is the spacing between the lead digging shortwave and the energy riding overtop the ridge and then dropping southward. Hard to tell on the 18z as the run ends too soon, but comparing the two my guess is it would end up a tad worse than 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: I think we're far enough out that people shouldn't vest one way or the other with this thing. But, we all know how it goes here. I am actually pretty excited about this period coming up. If we can get the PV to cooperate and displace south we could get smashed. Big if though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 47 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z EURO AI has a trough next weekend that is digging further south this run.... It brings a decent stripe of precip on the 18th but the snow is from I-81 & west. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: It brings a decent stripe of precip on the 18th but the snow is from I-81 & west. Go on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 12 minutes ago, CAPE said: To me the most important thing is the spacing between the lead digging shortwave and the energy riding overtop the ridge and then dropping southward. Hard to tell on the 18z as the run ends too soon, but comparing the two my guess is it would end up a tad worse than 12z. Looks like noise on the ens mean. Not much difference. Many more runs to go. No need to spend time trying to analyze micro differences between successive runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 57 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I also use words like wester and swirlie thing in pbp, so yeah. Mitch is prob right. Don’t forget ass hair 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 15 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Don’t forget ass hair Elite science 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 hour ago, CAPE said: To me the most important thing is the spacing between the lead digging shortwave and the energy riding overtop the ridge and then dropping southward. Hard to tell on the 18z as the run ends too soon, but comparing the two my guess is it would end up a tad worse than 12z. The PV will control that spacing. The models want to send in south. If that happens we are in the game. If it doesnt we are done. That is the bottom line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: I also use words like wester and swirlie thing in pbp, so yeah. Mitch is prob right. Swirlie thing?? Lmaoooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 hour ago, Solution Man said: Don’t forget ass hair Is that a technical term?? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: The PV will control that spacing. The models want to send in south. If that happens we are in the game. If it doesnt we are done. That is the bottom line. Can't help but recall this shtick 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 8 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Is that a technical term?? Lol Over 50? Yes it is.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 ICON fell off this run. 0z starting of fine. Knew it was gonna be different with how that sw in the south west held together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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