Amped Posted December 30, 2025 Share Posted December 30, 2025 Gfs day 12 has a major Arkansas ice storm, which is nice cause I need a reminder that Arkansas exists every now and then. 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 30, 2025 Share Posted December 30, 2025 When I saw the weeklies this morning, it looked like we're losing the Jan 5-12 window, but Jan 12-19 (and later weeks) stayed cold. I was going to wait until 12z to say anything though. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 30, 2025 Share Posted December 30, 2025 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Right? It’s rainy Dog shit 12z suite so far. Need the euro to save it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 30, 2025 Share Posted December 30, 2025 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: When I saw the weeklies this morning, it looked like we're losing the Jan 5-12 window, but Jan 12-19 (and later weeks) stayed cold. I was going to wait until 12z to say anything though. Don’t worry we will lose those next. Cue Ji disaster post in 3..2..1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 30, 2025 Share Posted December 30, 2025 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Right? It’s rainy It had a pressing cold that never made it south. In any event, Gfs and Gem runs are crap assuming Gfs snow around 190hrs is fantasy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 30, 2025 Share Posted December 30, 2025 Just now, WxUSAF said: Dog shit 12z suite so far. Need the euro to save it I have had little faith in any type of good pattern. If we get something it’s going to be some wave that just pops up in the mid pattern and isn’t that significant but might produce a 2-4” event or something. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 30, 2025 Share Posted December 30, 2025 I don't understand why so many mets expect a good pattern while the Gulf of Alaska has a cold pool along with a negative PNA. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 30, 2025 Share Posted December 30, 2025 2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: I don't understand why so many mets expect a good pattern while the Gulf of Alaska has a cold pool along with a negative PNA. I doubt the cold pool is a problem. It's not not expansive and not very cold while surrounded by AN water temps. The -PNA otoh is. These runs make me think that SE ridge is real. Of course, it can change in 6 or 12 hours, which is a true testament of the accuracy of these so-called "predictive" models. Times like now when I wish we only had 936-1212! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 30, 2025 Share Posted December 30, 2025 I don't understand why so many mets expect a good pattern while the Gulf of Alaska has a cold pool along with a negative PNA. Chuck? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 30, 2025 Share Posted December 30, 2025 Noticed that GEFS is heading MJO into Phase 6. IF correct, we will have to wait through mid January for a great pattern....on other hand EURO has it neutral before heading back toward 7-8. I think that is why we are struggling with the mid range. Phase 6 won't work.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 30, 2025 Share Posted December 30, 2025 28 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Noticed that GEFS is heading MJO into Phase 6. IF correct, we will have to wait through mid January for a great pattern....on other hand EURO has it neutral before heading back toward 7-8. I think that is why we are struggling with the mid range. Phase 6 won't work.... CMC also goes into 6, while Euro stays in weak 7 (let's see what 12z says). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 30, 2025 Share Posted December 30, 2025 Lol...guess we are delayed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2025 Share Posted December 30, 2025 what happened in just 3 runs? to 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 30, 2025 Share Posted December 30, 2025 1 minute ago, Ji said: what happened in just 3 runs? to I don't think the run before was right but that's just a guess 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 30, 2025 Share Posted December 30, 2025 10 minutes ago, Ji said: what happened in just 3 runs? to Normalcy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted December 30, 2025 Share Posted December 30, 2025 Just now, TSSN+ said: Normalcy Or normalcy bias considering their track record this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 30, 2025 Share Posted December 30, 2025 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Dog shit 12z suite so far. Need the euro to save it Euro and euroai were also dog shit but less stinky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted December 30, 2025 Share Posted December 30, 2025 The southeastern states forum has turned into a funeral parlor after 12z. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 30, 2025 Share Posted December 30, 2025 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro and euroai were also dog shit but less stinky We can’t even get the good vibes to last more than 24hrs haha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2025 Share Posted December 30, 2025 its not normal to have these drastic changes 6-7 days out. This also happened last week when we trended from 70 degrees to 33 and Rain for Dec 26th in just a few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 30, 2025 Share Posted December 30, 2025 3 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: The southeastern states forum has turned into a funeral parlor after 12z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 30, 2025 Share Posted December 30, 2025 Just now, Ji said: its not normal to have these drastic changes 6-7 days out. This also happened last week when we trended from 70 degrees to 33 and Rain for Dec 26th in just a few days I swear the models got worse after all these so called upgrades. Can we downgrade again? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted December 30, 2025 Share Posted December 30, 2025 1 minute ago, Ji said: its not normal to have these drastic changes 6-7 days out. This also happened last week when we trended from 70 degrees to 33 and Rain for Dec 26th in just a few days Wasn’t the 6th a long shot anyway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2025 Share Posted December 30, 2025 1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said: Wasn’t the 6th a long shot anyway? not really---the 6th was but the 8th/9th had legs the past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 30, 2025 Share Posted December 30, 2025 4 minutes ago, Ji said: its not normal to have these drastic changes 6-7 days out. This also happened last week when we trended from 70 degrees to 33 and Rain for Dec 26th in just a few days CAB is very much alive and well despite protests over saying so 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted December 30, 2025 Share Posted December 30, 2025 10 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Even weirder, there’s more optimism in the TN valley forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2025 Share Posted December 30, 2025 seems like whatever webber forecasts...the opposite happens 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted December 30, 2025 Share Posted December 30, 2025 what happened in just 3 runs? toModels struggling due to less data from noaa cuts? . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2025 Share Posted December 30, 2025 Just now, Imgoinhungry said: Models struggling due to less data from noaa cuts? . whats that have to do with the european? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted December 30, 2025 Share Posted December 30, 2025 Just now, Ji said: seems like whatever webber forecasts...the opposite happens The 9th is 10 days away, not too late for it to reverse. It’s only 2 bad runs too far enough out to still get reversed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts