January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Amped]

Gfs day 12 has a major Arkansas ice storm, which is nice cause I need a reminder that Arkansas exists every now and then.

[Terpeast]

When I saw the weeklies this morning, it looked like we're losing the Jan 5-12 window, but Jan 12-19 (and later weeks) stayed cold. I was going to wait until 12z to say anything though.

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Right? It’s rainy 

Dog shit 12z suite so far. Need the euro to save it 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

When I saw the weeklies this morning, it looked like we're losing the Jan 5-12 window, but Jan 12-19 (and later weeks) stayed cold. I was going to wait until 12z to say anything though.

Don’t worry we will lose those next. Cue Ji disaster post in 3..2..1

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Right? It’s rainy 

It had a pressing cold that never made it south.

In any event, Gfs and Gem runs are crap assuming Gfs snow around 190hrs is fantasy 

[TSSN+]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Dog shit 12z suite so far. Need the euro to save it 

I have had little faith in any type of good pattern. If we get something it’s going to be some wave that just pops up in the mid pattern and isn’t that significant but might produce a 2-4” event or something. 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

I don't understand why so many mets expect a good pattern while the Gulf of Alaska has a cold pool along with a negative PNA.  

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I don't understand why so many mets expect a good pattern while the Gulf of Alaska has a cold pool along with a negative PNA.  

I doubt the cold pool is a problem.  It's not not expansive and not very cold while surrounded by AN water temps. The -PNA otoh is.

These runs make me think that SE ridge is real. Of course, it can change in 6 or 12 hours, which is a true testament of the accuracy of these so-called "predictive" models. Times like now when I wish we only had 936-1212! Lol

[anotherman]

I don't understand why so many mets expect a good pattern while the Gulf of Alaska has a cold pool along with a negative PNA.  

Chuck?

[Weather Will]

Noticed that GEFS is heading MJO into Phase 6.  IF correct, we will have to wait through mid January for a great pattern....on other hand EURO has it neutral before heading back toward 7-8.  I think that is why we are struggling with the mid range.  Phase 6 won't work....

[Terpeast]

28 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Noticed that GEFS is heading MJO into Phase 6.  IF correct, we will have to wait through mid January for a great pattern....on other hand EURO has it neutral before heading back toward 7-8.  I think that is why we are struggling with the mid range.  Phase 6 won't work....

CMC also goes into 6, while Euro stays in weak 7 (let's see what 12z says). 

[aldie 22]

Lol...guess we are delayed. 

[Ji]

what happened in just 3 runs?

to

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

what happened in just 3 runs?

to

I don't think the run before was right but that's just a guess

[TSSN+]

10 minutes ago, Ji said:

what happened in just 3 runs?

to

Normalcy 

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Normalcy 

Or normalcy bias considering their track record this year.

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Dog shit 12z suite so far. Need the euro to save it 

Euro and euroai were also dog shit but less stinky 

[JenkinsJinkies]

The southeastern states forum has turned into a funeral parlor after 12z.

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro and euroai were also dog shit but less stinky 

We can’t even get the good vibes to last more than 24hrs haha. 

[Ji]

its not normal to have these drastic changes 6-7 days out. This also happened last week when we trended from 70 degrees to 33 and Rain for Dec 26th in just a few days

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

The southeastern states forum has turned into a funeral parlor after 12z.

 

[TSSN+]

Just now, Ji said:

its not normal to have these drastic changes 6-7 days out. This also happened last week when we trended from 70 degrees to 33 and Rain for Dec 26th in just a few days

I swear the models got worse after all these so called upgrades. Can we downgrade again? 

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

its not normal to have these drastic changes 6-7 days out. This also happened last week when we trended from 70 degrees to 33 and Rain for Dec 26th in just a few days

Wasn’t the 6th a long shot anyway?

[Ji]

1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Wasn’t the 6th a long shot anyway?

not really---the 6th was but the 8th/9th had legs the past few days.

[WEATHER53]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

its not normal to have these drastic changes 6-7 days out. This also happened last week when we trended from 70 degrees to 33 and Rain for Dec 26th in just a few days

CAB is very much alive and well despite protests over saying so 

[JenkinsJinkies]

10 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

 

Even weirder, there’s more optimism in the TN valley forum.

[Ji]

seems like whatever webber forecasts...the opposite happens

[Imgoinhungry]

what happened in just 3 runs?

to

Models struggling due to less data from noaa cuts?


.

[Ji]

Just now, Imgoinhungry said:

Models struggling due to less data from noaa cuts?


.

whats that have to do with the european?

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, Ji said:

seems like whatever webber forecasts...the opposite happens

The 9th is 10 days away, not too late for it to reverse. It’s only 2 bad runs too far enough out to still get reversed.