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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread


Baroclinic Zone
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10 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

we had a couple good ones up here in the last few years 

meh... 

leaving something on the table when -   

our options have been:  blame it all on something other than the inevitability and unstoppable force of CC, such that we do not commit the sin of denialism as weather-related/respecting mindful folk, while in fact preventing us from accepting; - or, getting a storm once in a while that enables us to continue along this approach to reality ... 

enjoy !

(LOL... big dose of dark sarcasm there - but a large amount of humor has an "air" of truth to it <_< )

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

You are exaggerating.  EPS GEFS are basically neutral.

download (17).png

download (18).png

I swear the pope is biased towards a warmer and non-wintry pattern. It seems like he always pushes that side of the fence ( Not questioning his knowledge, because this is what he does ), but I do find that he leans heavily towards us having a crap fest pattern as opposed to it turning into a favorable pattern.

Whatever happens happens of course ( and I'm no expert myself )... It's just how he portrays and perceives what's going to happen when posting his thoughts. 

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The ICON gets to about 132 hours give or take ...then it loses support from the governing local hemispheric ongoing behavior, that forces the trough to open back up again... taking the legs out form under cyclogenesis 

welcome to a big exercise in large scale destructive wave mechanics - 

this appears to have been a two-balls-in-the-nut-sack pattern all along. I've been waiting for that 2nd wave to begin yielding to the first - or vice versa - for days, but if anything, the ensembles are getting even more overbearingly contentious - it's like the only storm is a contest to see which one manages the most entropy out of incalculable potential from this whole mid month.  wow ... it's almost comical. 

Anyway, gloom humor aside ...it's not a dead potential. I'm just getting issue exhaustion in explaining why - time to put  up or shut up.   It's always about what needs to go right - things that are plausible.  Figuring out what part of that spectrum of plausibility actually has likeliness to to happen is artful

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alright.. i'll just add this much quickly.  24 hours from now, the dark circle represents the ballast of the wave space ultimately delivering ...whatever is destined to take place along and off the EC  ..circa 15/16.   That has to be relayed out of the assimilated sounding domain ( unless that tech state has changed...), then ...it has to interact and/if integrate with Canadian pass-by phasing ... 

These recent GFS runs are handsome with all that relay - which unfortunately has a lot of 'correct-ability' potential to it.  It could be right. or it could be wrong.   Particularly, the 2nd wave in that headache ... that can still modulate to less (more ) interference - so there's that too

image.png.bb210f0b04e91bb37f22c7cbd76b4120.png

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