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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread


Baroclinic Zone
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I've been mentioning this the last couple of days ...   the 12z op GFS run beautifully makes exhibition of my point.

Wave interference is a problem ...this spacing is too close.  

image.png.9282ed33ad32552aa14c4a860532bb0f.png

Luckily at D7 there's time to improve this. 

We'll see what the other runs do, but they've also been exhibiting spacing contention issues... I maintain a larger reason for this is because the +PNA ridge flex is choosing a position too far W.  The flow is tending schism east across CONUS... causing timing and placement issues.  If the ridge were more E, that would focus and also iron out which waves are dominate and absorb the others such that it can be the main player.  

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

I've been mentioning this the last couple of days ...   the 12z op GFS run beautifully makes exhibition of my point.

Wave interference is a problem ...this spacing is too close.  

image.png.9282ed33ad32552aa14c4a860532bb0f.png

Luckily at D7 there's time to improve this. 

We'll see what the other runs do

Maybe a good thing that that is an issue in clown range-

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe a good thing that that is an issue in clown range-

I maintain a larger reason for this is because the +PNA ridge flex is choosing a position too far W.  The flow is tending schism east across CONUS downstream... causing timing and placement issues.  If the ridge were more E, that would focus and also iron out which waves are dominate and absorb the others such that it can be the main player. 

I think if there's a "like-able" and "wanted" solution, it will be if/when the +PNA ridge is correct E.  Even if incrementally would help... 

 

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1 hour ago, UnitedWx said:

I'm an electrician

Lol... I've been looking for a good electrician. Both my brothers are electricians but they live too far to ever come here ( New York and lower Fairfield county )... I had a guy a while back from one of the contractors that did a lot of work in my house. I'm in the tile business myself, do sales and design. But truly, I do need an electrician. There's several things in my house I need to have looked at and probably fixed.

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Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

Lol... I've been looking for a good electrician. Both my brothers are electricians but they live too far to ever come here ( New York and lower Fairfield county )... I had a guy a while back from one of the contractors that did a lot of work in my house. I'm in the tile business myself, do sales and design. But truly, I do need an electrician. There's several things in my house I need to have looked at and probably fixed.

It's probably something we could help you with eventually. You can always message me if you'd like to discuss. Kind of a strange situation going on here. We're actually selling our business to another contractor. I'll be working with him for a time before I move on to something slightly different myself.

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I maintain a larger reason for this is because the +PNA ridge flex is choosing a position too far W.  The flow is tending schism east across CONUS... causing timing and placement issues.  If the ridge were more E, that would focus and also iron out which waves are dominate and absorb the others such that it can be the main player. 

I think if there's a "like-able" and "wanted" solution, it will be if/when the +PNA ridge is correct E.  Even if incrementally would help... 

 

This is also what I was arguing on social media, and here yesterday.

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1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I like the second wave more, as is often the case... it doesn't have anything clawing at its back and the antecedent airmass is more favorable. that doesn't preclude the 16th, but if I were a betting man, I would put my money on the 18th

like one of these is way more typically productive than the other

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-8500000.thumb.png.9245fc9299be6d291f36055738267f13.pnggfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-8672800.thumb.png.e64bbb789a59e52e0f4022c5720755e2.png

18th seems to have the most room att.

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3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Dealing with three s/w's between the 15-18th.

Going to have to hope something speeds up or slows down, because if not, we’ll all end up with very little.

Wave spacing issues have been a consistent them for close to a decade now, and it’s often sunk any decent hemispheric patterns we’ve had, especially over the last 5-6 years 

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3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I like the second wave more, as is often the case... it doesn't have anything clawing at its back and the antecedent airmass is more favorable. that doesn't preclude the 16th, but if I were a betting man, I would put my money on the 18th

like one of these is way more typically productive than the other

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-8500000.thumb.png.9245fc9299be6d291f36055738267f13.pnggfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-8672800.thumb.png.e64bbb789a59e52e0f4022c5720755e2.png

18th also fits my progression better...never been to keen on mid-month.

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

18th seems to have the most room att.

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2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

The 18th had more room btw, would have been a 950s nuke if the northern stream caught up earlier 

TBH, I'd prefer like 970-980....the super intense lows always do strange things with QPF and end up porking in terms of snowfall...like that Jan 4th deal back in 2018.

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