January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[WinterWolf]

Like a PRE in a tropical set up? 

[vortex95]

I know we are dealing w/ 10 days out, but the difference between the GFS and ECMWF op is immense.  I attached the 30/00z GFS and the 29/12z ECMWF 500H/850T anomalies VT 18z Jan 8.

They could not be any more different.  The GFS has split flow w/ no polar jet present, just STJ and 500 heights above 540 all of the CONUS.  850 temps above avg most of the country and a large part of Canada.  The ECMWF, OTOH, has a huge polar jet presence merging w/ the STJ and very cold ern US and mild wrn US.  In addition, the GFS has little blocking near Greenland, while the ECMWF is through the roof!

What's funny is that either of these patterns could give a "CoastalWx Biggie" to the NEUS.  GFS pattern suggests more Miller A and ECMWF suggests more Miller B!  Odd.   Which one will "win?!"

 

[WinterWolf]

I wonder if 0z Euro doubles down?  Maybe we(SNE) win if they both can give us a nice big coastal from entirely different patterns….  

[Snowedin]

5 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

We’ve talked about this before, but there’s probably some perfect chain of events that produces a sub-950 bomb southeast of LI starting from relatively higher pressure….preceded by some sort of high-thermal gradient overrunning scenario that lasts 24+ hours before the slow moving shallow trough is injected with polar/arctic energy, deepens extremely rapidly, and produces 5-foot totals once you add the entire thing up. 
 

Yeah…1 in 500 years maybe? But it’s not zero. 

Sounds like the plot to the day after tomorrow. Who knows what madness the future holds!

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

I wonder if 0z Euro doubles down?  Maybe we(SNE) win if they both can give us a nice big coastal from entirely different patterns….  

No

[Torch Tiger]

Stein kicking up on the latest 6z gfs

[UnitedWx]

6 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

I wonder if 0z Euro doubles down?  Maybe we(SNE) win if they both can give us a nice big coastal from entirely different patterns….  

Question is, does the blocking show up as some seem to think it will. If it does, It doesn't look like the models are picking up on it yet, except maybe the Euro around the 10th? I guess the GoofusAI is showing some sort of Miller A at that time as well... FWIW

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Zzzz

[Sey-Mour Snow]

10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Zzzz

Not interested in the 1-2" iso 3" potential for tomorrow night? Pretty cool for the ball drop

[Damage In Tolland]

Almost all of SNE gets 1-2” tomorrow night. Sneaky little system 

[CoastalWx]

Might be a little enhancement SE MA and cape.

[Baroclinic Zone]

16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Almost all of SNE gets 1-2” tomorrow night. Sneaky little system 

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

New years thread has been give.

we watch for upside potential 

[Go Kart Mozart]

10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Depends...what does scooter get in my 28"er?

2", then sleet, rain, dry slot.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Go Kart Mozart said:

2", then sleet, rain, dry slot.

Hehe....Do I need to answer?

[Damage In Tolland]

Jan 6 and Jan 9 very much alive on ensembles 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hehe....Do I need to answer?

Toss

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Jan 6 and Jan 9 very much alive on ensembles 

Yeah not the greatest signal 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah not the greatest signal 

I haven't seen the level of commitment I would like at this juncture to be excited...we still seem to be in the "pattern phase", which elicits some type of hope and optimism that has yet to be focused. Frankly, I have had enough of that over the course of the past 8 years because it's seldom ended well.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looping through the EPS, it kind of seems to me that the clipper blows up once past our longitude (of course) and nails the Maritimes, only to push the main baroclinic zone far enough out so that any potential follow up joy suffers a similar fate.

[40/70 Benchmark]

If I had my druthers, I would eradicate that clipper....it offers much more risk than reward-

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Not interested in the 1-2" iso 3" potential for tomorrow night? Pretty cool for the ball drop

I mentioned that yesterday. Looks like it could be a small event for se Mass and cape.

I was more talking longer term potential. Definitely nothing imminent 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I know Kev loves his 2"ers...but at that cost? Rather see the ball drop on cracked, barren earth with my eyes peeled to explosive model runs.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I mentioned that yesterday. Looks like it could be a small event for se Mass and cape.

I was more talking longer term potential. Definitely nothing imminent 

Step back at 00z hopefully we revert back positively for 12z 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I haven't seen the level of commitment I would like at this juncture to be excited...we still seem to be in the "pattern phase", which elicits some type of hope and optimism that has yet to be focused. Frankly, I have had enough of that over the course of the past 8 years because it's seldom ended well.

Yeah, at some point, we’d expect to congeal some sort of coherent signal, and that’s just not happening.

[40/70 Benchmark]

40 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Step back at 00z hopefully we revert back to the good look for 12z 

The atmosphere conserves energy for Maritime lows and cutters.....notice the Michigan bomb had no problem detonating....but then when something is near the east coast, the gradient and Hadley Cell are all of a sudden prohibitive.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah I don’t really have the wow feel looking at the upcoming pattern. I think the 8-9 probably offers the best legit chance of something moderate or greater. I think once the PAC reshuffles, and we get more of a -EPO look that opens up the door more. 

[CoastalWx]

21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The atmosphere conserves energy for Maritime lows and cutters.....notice the Michigan bomb had no problem detonating....but then when something is near the east coast, the gradient and Hadley Cell are of a sudden prohibitive.

Yeah there’s been some bombs for sure. Fast flow and not allowing for amplification only applies here.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I don’t really have the wow feel looking at the upcoming pattern. I think the 8-9 probably offers the best legit chance of something moderate or greater. I think once the PAC reshuffles, and we get more of a -EPO look that opens up the door more. 

"Don't see it right now...once this happens, then we have a shot"....take all of the frustration out on the can and keep kicking the ever-living $hit out of it

[40/70 Benchmark]

I am so utterly fu)king sick of this decade.