January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[WinterWolf]

Like a PRE in a tropical set up? 

[vortex95]

I know we are dealing w/ 10 days out, but the difference between the GFS and ECMWF op is immense.  I attached the 30/00z GFS and the 29/12z ECMWF 500H/850T anomalies VT 18z Jan 8.

They could not be any more different.  The GFS has split flow w/ no polar jet present, just STJ and 500 heights above 540 all of the CONUS.  850 temps above avg most of the country and a large part of Canada.  The ECMWF, OTOH, has a huge polar jet presence merging w/ the STJ and very cold ern US and mild wrn US.  In addition, the GFS has little blocking near Greenland, while the ECMWF is through the roof!

What's funny is that either of these patterns could give a "CoastalWx Biggie" to the NEUS.  GFS pattern suggests more Miller A and ECMWF suggests more Miller B!  Odd.   Which one will "win?!"

 

[WinterWolf]

I wonder if 0z Euro doubles down?  Maybe we(SNE) win if they both can give us a nice big coastal from entirely different patterns….  

[Snowedin]

5 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

We’ve talked about this before, but there’s probably some perfect chain of events that produces a sub-950 bomb southeast of LI starting from relatively higher pressure….preceded by some sort of high-thermal gradient overrunning scenario that lasts 24+ hours before the slow moving shallow trough is injected with polar/arctic energy, deepens extremely rapidly, and produces 5-foot totals once you add the entire thing up. 
 

Yeah…1 in 500 years maybe? But it’s not zero. 

Sounds like the plot to the day after tomorrow. Who knows what madness the future holds!

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

I wonder if 0z Euro doubles down?  Maybe we(SNE) win if they both can give us a nice big coastal from entirely different patterns….  

No