January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[coastalplainsnowman]

9 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Why? Just because in some areas it went from 50 inches to 3 inches in a six hour period? It's trying to give you every option possible. Maybe the 12 Z will show a heat wave today just to open up all possibilities. 

Memories of this classic:

[SnowGoose69]

22 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Do you understand why the change happened and why it has happened in the past many times ?

The main reason that event has sort of tamed is the SER is not quite as strong as it was being shown to be in that period next week anymore.  I still don't love Sunday due to lack of a high in SE Canada, it would need to be a pretty close to perfect setup right now

[vegan_edible]

30 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Models really lost the storm signal around the 24th big time. They were honking on it yesterday but now…. Nothing. I’m sure something will reappear at some point because the pattern is conducive. But wow what a change in a 6 hour model run period !

stg i cant tell if you're being sarcastic or not but this is gold

[Krs4Lfe]

ICON is most similar to Euro. Has moderate snowfall just offshore. Started to look better early on but the trough is still positively tilted. With a positive tilt, it's limited in how far west it can get

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

ICON is most similar to Euro. Has moderate snowfall just offshore. Started to look better early on but the trough is still positively tilted. With a positive tilt, it's limited in how far west it can get

Ai gfs remains similiar

Gfs coming in interesting 

[Krs4Lfe]

GFS has light snow Saturday morning, temps around freezing, but quick moving and likely no accumulation. 

 

 

[bluewave]

It will be interesting to see if we can finally drop a trough into the West around 10 days out. The record ridge through the first half of the winter is one of the reasons that a large portion of the nation has been so dry. Generally with La Ninas the Western trough is most prominent during February. But who knows this year for sure with how dominant this dry ridge has been.

New run 

Old run

Some possible improvement in dry pattern late January?

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Krs4Lfe said:

GFS has light snow Saturday morning, temps around freezing, but quick moving and likely no accumulation. 

 

 

Here comes the gfs for sunday

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see if we can finally drop a trough into the West around 10 days out. The record ridge through the first half of the winter is one of the reasons that a large portion of the nation has been so dry. Generally with La Ninas the Western trough is most prominent during February. But who knows this year for sure with how dominant this dry ridge has been.

New run 

Old run

Some possible improvement in dry pattern late January?

Cpc has  a cold and wet pattern after the 20th

 

[MJO812]

Coastal storm incoming on the gfs

[WeatherGeek2025]

way more west so far 

[MJO812]

Boom

[WeatherGeek2025]

moderate hit NYC and east

[Krs4Lfe]

GFS has a classic arctic boundary storm, snow riding up from Deep South through east coast, and intensifying off coast of Mid Atlantic. Weenie run 

[MJO812]

Wow

[WeatherGeek2025]

I made a thread

Mods please don't delete it I beg you this will be good luck!

 

 

[EastonSN+]

[hudsonvalley21]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Wow

Big shift west from the 06z run. Hope the west trend doesn’t continue to far

[vegan_edible]

[Krs4Lfe]

Let's see what GFS and CMC have for the 22nd and beyond. Last night was obviously a weenie run, but the pattern would indicate there would probably be something within that timeframe 

[vegan_edible]

cmc also has something brewing for the 18th...

[cleetussnow]

The GFS is DEAD.  
 

Long live the GFS!

[NJwx85]

The run to run differences at 500mb on the GFS valid at 06z Monday are laughable. Going to need a lot more than one run to get on board but it’s certainly possible in this pattern. The differences begin on Saturday with the trough digging further South which allows the flow to amplify just enough.

[the_other_guy]

28 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Big shift west from the 06z run. Hope the west trend doesn’t continue to far

Right now it’s a grazer. You need a little bit more than that going west.

[MJO812]

Just now, the_other_guy said:

Right now it’s a grazer. You need a little bit more than that going west.

Cmc gives the coast some snow Sunday.  Everything is coming west.

[RU848789]

Nice to see the GFS and CMC looking much snowier for Sunday night/Monday and with nice cold air in place, whereas for most, Saturday's light snows will be falling at or above 32F, so accumulations will be tough to come by, especially with light intensity during the day. But flakes are still flakes, lol.

[BoulderWX]

Just now, the_other_guy said:

Right now it’s a grazer. You need a little bit more than that going west.

this would be brutal to witness; verbatim 3" in my back yard and 10-20 on LI; will be interesting to see how it plays out but a coastal scraper looks to be on the table at least. Don't think this one has a shot to be big for interior folks, myself included, but we watch..

[vegan_edible]

gonna make this my laptops screensaver

[SnoSki14]

6 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Right now it’s a grazer. You need a little bit more than that going west.

I'll take a grazer this far out. These things always trend too far west in the end 

[Krs4Lfe]

8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'll take a grazer this far out. These things always trend too far west in the end 

Yes and no. The trough needs to be negative in order to get this further west. If it's not negative, it's not coming further west with a positive trough.