January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[bluewave]

Colder start to winter than recent years but not as cold as 17-18 was through January 8th.

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY December 1st through January 8th
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2026-01-08	34.1	0
2025-01-08	35.8	0
2024-01-08	40.7	0
2023-01-08	38.6	0
2022-01-08	40.3	0
2021-01-08	36.9	0
2020-01-08	37.3	0
2019-01-08	38.2	0
2018-01-08	30.3	0

[uofmiami]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Colder start to winter than recent years but not as cold as 17-18 was through January 8th.

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY December 1st through January 8th
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2026-01-08	34.1	0
2025-01-08	35.8	0
2024-01-08	40.7	0
2023-01-08	38.6	0
2022-01-08	40.3	0
2021-01-08	36.9	0
2020-01-08	37.3	0
2019-01-08	38.2	0
2018-01-08	30.3	0

Is that for all major reporting stations or just ISP, which was the warmest of all stations last month?  Every major was around -5 to -6 for the month, ISP was only -2.8. 

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Is that for all major reporting stations or just ISP, which was the warmest of all stations last month?  Every major was around -5 to -6 for the month, ISP was only -2.8. 

Yeah, the average temperatures at the major reporting stations from EWR to ISP so far this winter are in the 33° to 34° range.  We finished December at -4.6° for the 7 station average. Sometimes based on the earlier climate periods we can get similar temperatures at the stations but there can be more departure variability. This is why I focus more on rankings and actual temperatures since departures are based on a rising mean each new 10 year update. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2026-01-08	33.4	0
2025-01-08	36.9	0
2024-01-08	43.0	0
2023-01-08	40.4	0
2022-01-08	42.5	0
2021-01-08	37.9	0
2020-01-08	38.1	0
2019-01-08	39.4	0
2018-01-08	31.0	0

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2026-01-08	33.9	0
2025-01-08	37.0	0
2024-01-08	43.0	0
2023-01-08	40.4	0
2022-01-08	42.2	0
2021-01-08	38.8	0
2020-01-08	38.7	0
2019-01-08	40.1	0
2018-01-08	31.4	0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2026-01-08	34.3	0
2025-01-08	37.9	0
2024-01-08	42.9	0
2023-01-08	40.4	0
2022-01-08	43.5	0
2021-01-08	40.6	0
2020-01-08	39.2	0
2019-01-08	40.6	0
2018-01-08	32.5	0

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2026-01-08	33.4	0
2025-01-08	38.2	0
2024-01-08	41.4	0
2023-01-08	39.2	0
2022-01-08	41.8	0
2021-01-08	38.3	0
2020-01-08	38.6	0
2019-01-08	39.9	0
2018-01-08	31.3	0

 

[MANDA]

Rumblings on some longer range guidance of major cold returning to the central and eastern U.S. once past 1/17.  We'll see but there is still a bitter cold pool of air over NW Canada and Alaska and it isn't going away soon.  Hard to imagine how we avoid at least some of it with increasing signal for +PNA developing.  Stay tuned....more to come.  Snowfall / storm track as usual is uncertain.  Cold could overwhelm the pattern and keep snowfall on the limited side.

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Rumblings on some longer range guidance of major cold returning to the central and eastern U.S. once past 1/17.  We'll see but there is still a bitter cold pool of air over NW Canada and Alaska and it isn't going away soon.  Hard to imagine how we avoid at least some of it with increasing signal for +PNA developing.  Stay tuned....more to come.  Snowfall / storm track as usual is uncertain.  Cold could overwhelm the pattern and keep snowfall on the limited side.

Yeah, EPS has a transition back to colder again following this warmer pattern.
 

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

partial phase on icon for next Thursday-Friday

[the_other_guy]

This extended warmth in January is what I call a winter killer. Basically a week straight of March. Awful. 47F.  Feels good at least

[North and West]

This extended warmth in January is what I call a winter killer. Basically a week straight of March. Awful. 47F.  Feels good at least

Though it was cold in December. We don’t live in the Yukon. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ and it looks like it will get cold again.


.

[forkyfork]

2 hours ago, lee59 said:

Frosty morning, upper 20s

it's called winter

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

it's called winter

forky what do you think about next week

[Brian5671]

18 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

This extended warmth in January is what I call a winter killer. Basically a week straight of March. Awful. 47F.  Feels good at least

Always hate to waste the coldest climo of the year but kind of ready for a break from it personally-just wish the weekend wasnt a washout.

[North and West]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Always hate to waste the coldest climo of the year but kind of ready for a break from it personally-just wish the weekend wasnt a washout.

Agreed, but good for the water table and rinse some salt off the roads, however briefly.

[forkyfork]

5 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

forky what do you think about next week

airmass problems 

[MJO812]

25 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

This extended warmth in January is what I call a winter killer. Basically a week straight of March. Awful. 47F.  Feels good at least

What extended warmth ?

[MJO812]

Ai gfs

[bluewave]

At least Eurasia is trying to bounce off their record low snowcover extent as North America approaches record lows for mid-January with this current warm up.

[WeatherGeek2025]

GFS looks like it's going to be a big hit!

 

edit, missed

[Brian5671]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

What extended warmth ?

the cold spell ended Tuesday-it's like warm into next week so that's 8-10 days at least

[North and West]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

At least Eurasia is trying to bounce off their record low snowcover extent as North America approaches record lows for mid-January with this current warm up.

I hope the new year can bring you happiness.

[WeatherGeek2025]

[Jersey_Snowhole]

4 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

So close to a monster, but it’s where you want it to be right now

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

So close to a monster, but it’s where you want it to be right now

fairly slow moving KU potential. You Think Paul Koćin is watching this one?

[WeatherGeek2025]

Big hit two days later. 

[Yanksfan]

6 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

Big dog potential right there. Euro and Icon has been showing it too. As with any 7+ day events don’t fret over tracks. At this point in time I’m no means going gung-ho. Early next week the details will become much clearer.

[MJO812]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

Big hit two days later. 

Yep

[WeatherGeek2025]

the first one is definitely way better chance to accumulate but both are big storms. Can you imagine we get hit back to back KU events! 40-50 inches of snow by next Monday! 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

the first one is definitely way better chance to accumulate but both are big storms. Can you imagine we get hit back to back KU events! 40-50 inches of snow by next Monday! 

Omg chill

[WeatherGeek2025]

Oh Canada!

[eduggs]

Disappointing 12z runs. Guidance starting to converge on a miss next week just as we approach a more reliable model time frame. Ensembles have consistently shown very little snow through the end of next week. Next weekend's potential event is still in fantasy land so hard to get excited about anything that far away.

[Jt17]

Disappointing 12z runs. Guidance starting to converge on a miss next week just as we approach a more reliable model time frame. Ensembles have consistently shown very little snow through the end of next week. Next weekend's potential event is still in fantasy land so hard to get excited about anything that far away.

Weathergeek on one end, you on the other and reality hopefully in the middle.


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